+ Addison County Event Host: Middlebury College, ACEDC, Addison Chamber of Commerce April 21, 2016 Lewis&Stromsten Jeffrey Lewis, Jennifer Stromsten, RT Brown, Danielle Southwell
+ Today’s Agenda Overview of The Vermont Futures Project Thinking about Vermont’s Economy The view from data Building our Vision
+ THE VERMONT FUTURES PROJECT • Vermont Chamber of Commerce created the Vermont Chamber Foundation a non- profit research entity • Learned from many other similar Foundations — North Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, etc • Long term attention to the economy spanning administrations A data-driven initiative to secure Vermont’s economic future and to provide opportunity for Vermonters.
+ KEY DELIVERABLES VT Futures Project Phases Phase I : Data-driven dashboard of economic indicators to measure performance and track progress: Published January 8, 2016 Phase II: Long-term vision for a robust economy that provides opportunities for all Vermonters, Due Summer 2016 Phase III: Specific policy recommendations to make the vision a reality with supporting data, comparisons, and research support
+ How did Vision become part of an Economic Development Project? We need something to think about that’s bigger than ourselves We need a way to share values and goals that doesn’t require political negotiation. We steer by where we want to go , with an understanding of where we are, and the past we are rooted in We will work harder for something we believe in rather than something we have to do. We need to know what success looks like .
+ The Economy and Public Policy A complicated relationship Vermont Futures Project is aimed at state policy and resources Government has money, advice, support, and power Public policy shapes economic outcomes through: Infrastructure — Roads, bridges, water and waste water Tax policy —’The power to tax is the power…..’ Regulation – what’s easy or certain, what’s hard or uncertain Attention —’What we measure improves…’ Investment – Dollars, relief, human or other resources Education —’Increasing ability increases output…’ Housing and Land Use —’A finger on the scale…’
Policy Marketplace Public Assets Deals Housing orgs SOCIAL Single Payer JUSTICE Investment Development conflict Social Justice VISION conflict Fairness Economic Environmental VISION VISION Opportunity Protection VNRC ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL VLT DEVELOPMENT MOVEMENT CLF RDC’s Industry Associations Resource Chambers conflict
+ How Economies Grow… Economies grow when populations and productivity grow More people means more workers and more output Greater productivity (value per hour of work) = better pay rates Vermont has a stagnant population and workforce Little change in the last fifteen years And largely flat from 1820 to 1960 Productivity and wages are below the US average Affects opportunities for our people Many labor intensive industries: health care, education, retail These are long term challenges
+ Vermont: 85 years of worry And things are still fragile Vermonters have been worrying about their future since the 30’s (Commission on Rural Life) Several trends have persevered High focus and value on land and environment Increasing focus on social and economic justice No focus on overall economic opportunity for people or state Many studies and commissions since the 60’s Grafton Conferences Pathways to Prosperity VEPC, VEPC 10 year, CFED, Next Gen, CFV
+ Why are things not better? Policy has not adjusted to the times Rapid Growth in the 70’s and 80’s led to great concern about being overwhelmed Instituted policies and practices to control growth They worked! When growth stopped we did not adjust Lifestyle preferences and demand are shifting away from ‘Back to the Land’ mentality Vermont faces the same challenges as every rural state Vermont did not change its vision(s)
+ Big Question: Why do we need another try now? The ‘Tipping Point’ is visible in: Bubble of population in their 50’s means an aging workforce Continual reports of difficulty hiring workers finding critical skills Established businesses, older proprietors don’t see a way forward In Vermont cost of living is high and average wages are low The State budget ‘Alligator Mouth’ between revenue and expenses may be a symptom that the economy is simply not growing as much as we need. Growth is slower than the country More ‘shifting’ than actual growth Challenges suggest it could stall and reverse That crisis may be devastating Vermont’s quality of life
+ The Vermont Futures Project Talking about What Could Be We have built mental models of the Vermont we want Agricultural and natural heritage Fairness Independence NOT New Jersey Data challenges us to match our models to reality We have not grown in twenty years Economic performance has been weak Success, meaning sustainability, eludes us
+ The usual conversations about Vermont’s Economy Forecasts – doom & gloom vs. wine & roses , or “Why we should worry (or not) and what to do about it (or not) Solutions – great trends & new ideas, or “Vermont’s future will be great / greater if we keep doing x or start doing y” Sectors Strategies Values
+ Phase I of the Futures Project Baseline data – where we are now? Dashboard – what does that mean? Indicators – how to track progress?
+ BASELINE DATA
+ DASHBOARD
+ INDICATORS
+ What are we doing now? Baseline data – where we are now? Dashboard – what does that mean? Indicators – how to measure progress? VISION – what does success look like?
+ The Dashboard Three Pillar Pairs Economy …driven by Innovation 1. Workforce …shaped by Demographics 2. Places …powered by Infrastructure 3.
+ Example Workforce supply
+ Talking about Vermont’s Economy VERMONT WORKFORCE = 320,000 (roughly the same since 2000) Demand “Back of the envelope” One- time growth to reach ‘full employment’ unemployment rate: Turnover / Transition 6,000 Recurring: Retirements 3-4%/year = 11,375; Growth 2% = 6,400; Out-migration replacement = 3,200 Total = 20,975 Annual supply = 8,300 High school graduates 5,000, College matriculation 3,500, Net to Workforce = 3,500 Total College Students 40,000, graduates est 9,000, retention rate 50% (aspirational) = 4,500 Former Vermonters (childhood or college) returning est = 300 NET new workforce needed= 12,675 annually
+ Assumptions for Today’s Work The economy matters and deserves attention. Vermont’s economic health can help advance shared social and environmental values. Increasing opportunity for Vermonters - individual financial security and prosperous communities – is in keeping with traditional Vermont values . The economy is complex and that’s ok, in fact it’s a good thing - diversity adds resilience.
+ Individual Work ( it’s all on the form don’ t take notes) FUTURING: I believe ______ is a problem because it will cause ________ impacting Vermont’s Economic in the future. BRIDGE: I’m hopeful for Vermont’s Economic Future because of ____________ VISIONING: If I traveled into the future and found Vermont’s economy to be healthy and Vibrant I would see ________________.
+ What does success look like? More businesses? What kind? Where? What do they do? More jobs? How many? For whom? Doing what? Why? More workers? Who? How many? Where do they come from? Where do they live? More economic activity? Better places to do business? Better places to live?
+ BUILDING a VISION “When we succeed the future will look like this” Individual Work (5-10 minutes) Fill out the form Pick ONE idea for each category and take it ‘across’ Keep it personal and make it specific Group Work (25 minutes) Break into three groups with facilitators
+ How the things connect up PEOPLE – enough PLACES to A healthy economy LIVE… and great needs JOBS which of them with the right require… places need to be skills, and people need… economically thriving.
+ www.VTFuturesProject.org
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