Achievable Potential Study Working Group Meeting Update September 14, 2015 Confidential
IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Overall Plan Status In Progress Not Yet Started Complete Under Review Short-Term Analysis Kickoff Meeting Project Plan Long-Term Analysis Vision of study Develop parameters Achievable Achievable project plans potential potential Key items to for both short- consider term and long- 2015 - 2020 2015 - 2035 term analyses Data requests 2 Confidential
IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Schedule Original Dates 2015 2016 Revised Dates Completion Task Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Start End Start End % Identify Measures and Develop Archetype Programs 1 1-Aug-15 30-Nov-15 10% 1.1 Develop measures and estimate measure impacts 1-Aug-15 31-Oct-15 20% 1.2 Develop archetype programs and map measures to end uses/archetype programs 1-Aug-15 31-Oct-15 15% 1.3 Estimate savings per archetype program per participant per end use 1-Oct-15 30-Nov-15 0% Map archetype programs to subsector 1.4 1-Nov-15 30-Nov-15 0% Develop LDC Profiles 2 1-Aug-15 30-Nov-15 10% 2.1 Segment LDC customers by sector and by subsector 1-Aug-15 31-Oct-15 20% 2.2 Segment LDC customers by access to natural gas 1-Oct-15 30-Nov-15 0% 2.3 Segment LDC customers by climate region 1-Aug-15 30-Sep-15 20% 2.4 Segment LDC customers by end use 1-Sep-15 30-Nov-15 0% Adjust/calibrate LDC profiles to changes in sales and 2.5 customer forecasts 1-Oct-15 30-Nov-15 0% 3 Develop Participation and Savings Estimates 1-Nov-15 31-Mar-16 0% 3.1 Estimation of economic potential 1-Nov-15 31-Jan-16 0% 3.2 Estimation of budget constrained achievable potential 1-Dec-15 28-Feb-16 0% 3.3 Estimation of unconstrained achievable potential 1-Dec-15 28-Feb-16 0% Aggregate LDC savings 3.4 1-Feb-16 31-Mar-16 0% Conduct Sensitivity Analysis 4 1-Jan-16 28-Feb-16 0% Compare Potential to Baseline and Reference Forecast 5 1-Jan-16 28-Feb-16 0% Program Enhancements and Recommendations 6 1-Jan-16 31-Mar-16 0% Future Work / Continuous Improvement 7 Recommendations 1-Jan-16 31-Mar-16 0% Develop Report and Deliverables (Draft and Final 8 3 Confidential versions) 1-Sep-16 30-Apr-16 0%
Project Plan Development <Insert Footer> 4 Confidential
IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Short & Long Term Project Plans Estimated SubTask Status Completion Short Term Project Draft project plan for short term Mid September 2015 Plan analysis was submitted to IESO. The project plan was presented to LDCs in a webinar. The draft version was updated to draft final and addressed comments received from LDCs, IESO and expert panel. Long Term Project Draft project plan for long term Early October 2015 Plan analysis was developed and submitted to IESO for review. 5 5 Confidential
Measure List Development & Research 6 Confidential
IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Measure Research Comprehensive EE Measure List Define Market Classes Screen Measure Eligibility and Applicability Develop Measure Impacts and Costs 7 Confidential
IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Measure Research Sample Measure List 8 Confidential
IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Measure Research Subtask Status Estimated Completion Define Measure List Draft Measure list submitted to IESO for review Mid September on 9/11/15 Residential: 151 measures Commercial: 215 measures Industrial: 214 measures Draft taxonomy submitted to IESO for review Mid September Define Market Classes on 9/8/2015 to define sector, subsector, end use and technology market classes Not yet started (will screen measures for Early October Screen for Eligibility applicability by subsector and according to Conservation First Framework) Residential: Late Sept Estimate measure savings, cost and EUL Measure Impacts & Costs Commercial: Late Oct based on Ontario M&A document, regional Industrial: Early Nov TRMs, and Nexant measure library Residential: In progress Commercial: Not started Industrial: Not started 9 9 Confidential
LDC Load Profile Development <Insert Footer> 10 Confidential
IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Profiles Estimate Energy Sales & Customers by Sector by LDC Estimate Energy Sales & Customers by Subsector by LDC Estimate Energy Sales by End Use by LDC Forecast Changes in Customer Mix and End Use loads by Year by LDC Map LDCs by Access to Natural Gas Map LDC Load Profiles to Climate Zones 11 Confidential
IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Profiles Sample LDC Load Profile 12 Confidential
IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Profiles Subtask Data Source(s) Status / Est. Completion Enbridge and Union Gas 3 climate regions and Map LDCs by Natural Gas Ontario Energy Board mapped respective LDC Access loads to each. International Climate Zones Establish & Map Climate Zones Received data from 41 by LDC LDCs to estimate LDC submitted 2014 energy consumption Estimate Energy Sales & sales/customers by profiles Customers by Sector by LDC sector and by subsector. 2014 OEB Yearbook Reviewing D&B and LDC submitted segmentation data (by Estimate Energy Sales & MPAC data to fill in gaps NAICS code) Customers by Subsector by in LDC data LDC submitted customer consumption Reviewing sources to LDC data develop end use load MPAC data profiles Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) data U.S. EIA data (CBECS, RECS, MECS) Estimate Energy Sales by End Next Steps: Will Management in Ontario Industrial and Use by LDC distribute draft load Manufacturing Sector report, 2010 profiles to LDCs for EUF model review in October. LDC load forecast data Forecast Changes in Customer IESO Gross Load Forecast Mix and End Use loads by Year Office and retail space forecast research by LDC 13 13 Confidential
IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Profiles LDC to Climate Zone Mapping Established 3 Climate Regions based on International Climate Zones from ASHRAE Climate Zone 5 Climate Zone 6 Climate Zone 7 Plus Hydro One (weighted avg.) ASHRAE standard 90.1-2007 14 Confidential
Questions <Insert Footer> 15 Confidential
Nexant Canada, Inc. TD Canada Trust Tower 161 Bay Street, 27th Floor M5J 2S1 Toronto Canada www.nexant.com Confidential
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