Achievable Potential Study Working Group Meeting Update November - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Achievable Potential Study Working Group Meeting Update November 24, 2015

Project Plan Development <Insert Footer> 2

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Short and Long Term Analyses - Project Plans Estimated Sub-Task Status Completion Short Term The final plan was sent to Project Plan Working Group and posted on website.  Early December Long Term Project Draft project plan for long term 2015 Plan analysis was developed and submitted to IESO for review. Nexant is updating the plan to a final version. 3 3

LDC Load Profile Development <Insert Footer> 4

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Profiles Unique profile for each LDC: Purpose of LDC Profiles  Customer segmentation.  Energy use by each sector and subsector. Objective:  Bottom-up analysis approach to capture market differences between LDCs.  Achievable potential more accurately reflecting LDC specific opportunities. Key input in achievable potenial model:  Applicable archetype programs will be applied to each LDC Profile to estimate energy efficiency potential per LDC. 5

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Profiles – Taxonomy and Relative Impact on Potential Sector Subsectors End Uses Savings High Low Moderate Impact Single Family Low Income Space Heating Refrigerators Residential Row House; MURB Low Other Space Cooling Freezers Rise Residential Buildings Domestic Hot Water Clothes Washers MURB High Rise Ventilation & Clothes Dryers Circulation Dishwashers Lighting Plug Load Cooking Dehumidifiers; Misc Small Office Nursing Home Lighting Interior Heating Commercial Cooling – Chillers Large Office Schools General Non Food Retail Universities Lighting Interior High Cooling DX Taxonomy Restaurant TCU Bay HVAC Ventilation Lodging Warehouse Lighting Exterior Domestic Hot Water Hospitals Wholesale Computer Equipment Misc. Data Center Other Plug Other Commercial Loads Cooking Buildings Refrigeration Primary Metals Fabricated Metals Process Heating Motors-Fans/Blowers Industrial Paper Mfg Wood Products Process Cooling Motors-Other Auto Parts Mfg Petroleum Refineries Process Specific Lighting Chemical Mfg Mining Compressed Air HVAC Plastics & Rubber Mfg Electronic Mfg Motors-Pumps Electrochemical Food & Beverage Mfg Agriculture Other Misc. Industrial 6

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Profiles  Obtain 2014 OEB Yearbook data.  Develop LDC bottom up kWh estimate using best available secondary sources LDC Profile Methodology (global approach applied to all LDCs).  Compare and apply LDC provided data where applicable.  Sum of LDC totals to derive provincial total.  Compare bottom up LDC totals and provinvial total with 2014 OEB Yearbook data. Review analysis against OEB data:  Each bottom up LDC total ± 20%  Provincial total ± 5%  Apply LDC bottom up and/or LDC Segmentation data energy load distribution (%) by sector by subsector to top-line reported 2014 OEB Yearbook energy sales. 7

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Bottom-Up Methodology: Residential Sector 6 % Profile / LDC 1 2 3 4 5 # of Premises / Total kWh / Non-Residential LDC Total kWh / kWh / Premise Subsector Subsector MURB Subsector Energy use Number of Within each Identify the share Sum total intensity (annual residential subsector of multi-unit electricity kWh premises by multiply energy residential consumption by consumption/pr subsector. use intensity building (MURB) subsector to emise) by by number of load that is part of derive total subsector, premises to the nonresidential residential climate zone derive total rate class. electricity and electric electricity Subtract and consumption heating consumption move associated bottom-up saturation. within each load to estimate by LDC. subsector. commercial load profile. 8

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Bottom-Up Methodology: Commercial Sector 7 For commercial subsectors which are predominantly kWh / Public public sector facilities identify total electricity 1 Sector consumption (kWh) reported from facilities in Public % Profile / LDC Sector database by LDC. 6 2 3 4 5 LDC Total kWh / EUI sq.ft. / Total kWh / Non-Residential Subsector Subsector MURB (kWh / sq.ft.) Subsector Sum total Establish energy Determine the Within each Add in share of electricity use intensity total amount of remaining MURB load that consumption by (annual floor space subsector multiply is within the subsector to kWh/square area (square energy use commercial derive total foot) for footage) within intensity by total sector. commercial remaining each of the amount of floor electricity subsectors by remaining space area to consumption climate zone. subsectors. derive total bottom-up electricity estimate by LDC. consumption within each subsector. 9

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Bottom-Up Methodology: Industrial Sector 5 % Profile / LDC 1 2 3 4 EUI # of Premises / Total kWh / LDC Total kWh / Subsector Subsector Subsector (kWh / premise) Establish energy Determine Within each Sum total energy use intensity number of subsector multiply consumption by (annual kWh premises by energy use subsector to consumption / subsector. And intensity for each derive total premise) by size (number of facility size by industrial energy facility size employees). number of consumption by (small / medium premises within LDC. / large) by that facility size subsector. bin to derive total energy consumption within each subsector. 10

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Profiles Review example Excel LDC Profile template: (For ease of reference, the same examples are provided in next three slides) 11

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Profiles – No LDC Data Provided LDC Name LDC #1 Climate Zone 7 Rate Class Profile Rate Class 2014 (%) 2014 kWh Sales Source Residential 30.0% 311,158,072 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Non-Residential 30.4% 314,653,837 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) General Service < 50 kW 10.8% 111,866,043 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) General Service >= 50 kW 28.1% 291,536,313 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Large User 0.0% - 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Street Lighting 0.6% 5,970,403 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Other 0.1% 1,376,936 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Total 100.0% 633,159,248 Non-Residential - 2014 kWh Sector Profile Residential - 2014 kWh Source 314,653,837 311,158,072 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Commercial Industrial Sales Distribution (%) 91% 9% Nexant Bottom Up Analysis Total Sales (kWh) 284,813,264 29,840,574 Calculated Nexant Bottom Up Final Segmentation LDC Provided Segmentation Segmentation (applied to 2014 OEB Subsector Profiles Residential Subsectors 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) Source, Bottom-up Segmentation Single Family n/a n/a 70% 209,802,549 70% 219,001,621 2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) Row House n/a n/a 16% 46,610,506 16% 48,653,980 2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) 1% 1,665,585 1% 1,738,690 Other Residential n/a n/a 2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) Multi-Res Low Rise n/a n/a 12% 27,497,605 12% 38,172,941 2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9), 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Multi-Res High Rise n/a n/a 1% 2,586,636 1% 3,590,841 2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9), 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Total n/a n/a 100% 288,162,882 100% 311,158,072 Low-income households (% of residential 16.9% households, including commercial MURB) Stats Canada (11) Avg Electric Heating Saturation (High/Med/Low) 2014 MPAC Database (2) Nexant Bottom Up Final Segmentation LDC Provided Segmentation Segmentation (applied to 2014 OEB Commercial Subsectors Source, Bottom-up Segmentation 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) Large Office n/a n/a 3% 10,165,872 3% 9,143,557 Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Small Office n/a n/a 30% 94,770,224 30% 85,239,806 Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Non Food Retail n/a n/a 14% 42,961,775 14% 38,641,392 Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) 5% 15,786,709 5% 14,199,144 Food Retail n/a n/a Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Restaurant n/a n/a 5% 15,776,472 5% 14,189,936 2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4), 2003 CBECS Database (8) Lodging n/a n/a 2% 5,411,169 2% 4,867,003 2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Com Data (7) Hospitals n/a n/a 6% 18,601,165 6% 16,730,568 Public Sector Database (5) 2% 4,841,914 2% 4,354,994 Nursing Home n/a n/a 2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4), NRCan Com Data (7) Schools n/a n/a 2% 7,508,736 2% 6,753,632 Public Sector Database (5) Universities n/a n/a 7% 22,262,500 7% 20,023,707 Public Sector Database (5) Warehouse Wholesale n/a n/a 2% 5,742,472 2% 5,164,990 2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Com Data (7) 0% 0 0% 0 Data Center n/a n/a 2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database, US EPA & Lawrence Berkeley Lab (10) TCU (Transportation/Communication/Utilities) n/a n/a 5% 17,399,053 5% 15,649,345 2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4); 2003 CBECS Database (8) Multi-unit Residential n/a n/a 2% 7,747,946 2% 6,968,786 2014 MPAC Database (2); RECS Data (10); 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) 12 Other Commercial Buildings n/a n/a 15% 47,681,409 15% 42,886,404 2014 MPAC Database (2), 2003 CBECS Database (8) 100% 316,657,416 100% 284,813,264 Total n/a n/a