Potential Study: LDC Profiles Working Group Meeting Update - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Achievable Potential Study: LDC Profiles Working Group Meeting Update January 22, 2015

LDC Load Profile Development <Insert Footer> 2

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Profiles Development Tasks Develop profiles for Working Group LDCs Completed LDC Profile Review Tasks Review profiles with Working Group and obtain feedback Completed Develop profiles for remaining ± 60 LDCs Completed Webinar to discuss profiles Completed Review draft profiles with all LDCs:  Follow up with LDCs to address questions, gaps and to Completed clarify items.  Adjust with new data when applicable Dec 21 – Jan 25 Finalize all profiles 3

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Interaction with LDCs Total number of LDC Profiles 75 Follow up with conference calls / meetings 45 LDCs responded with comments or revised data 64 LDCs profiles revised based on received comments / data 48 LDCs profiles approved without revision 16 LDCs provided no comments 11 4

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Summary of Changes from Draft to Final Versions Commercial EUIs were revised with updated 2009 Commercial Relatively Building SCIEU data received directly from NRCan at end of Insignificant Impact November 2015 Global Changes Updated NAICS code 2131 mapping from “mining” to Relatively commercial “large office” and “small office” Insignificant Impact Relatively Added estimated energy load associated with common areas in multi-unit residential buildings to commercial sector Insignificant Impact “Construction/Contractor” NAICS codes mapped to “other Relatively commercial buildings” Insignificant Impact 5

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Summary of Changes from Draft to Final Versions LDC Specific Changes Relatively  LDCs provided additional data Insignificant to  LDC Profile was updated with new data Significant Impact Template Profile Added “Final Profile” tab with summary of the profile:  Final 2014 profile by sector and subsector in terms of kWh and %  Reference sources 6

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Development of LDC Profiles Next Steps Update LDC Profiles to final version Submit final version profiles to LDCs Questions about next steps? 7

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Profiles 8

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Achievable Potential Study: Forecast Development Working Group Meeting Update January 22, 2015

Forecast Development <Insert Footer> 11

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Load Forecast Development Context:  LDC profile provides snapshot of 2014 LDC load  Load forecast projects changes from 2015 to 2020 Purpose of Load Forecast Objective:  Develop a disaggregated reference load forecast for each LDC:  Annually from 2015 to 2020  By sector and sub-sector  By end-use Key items taken into consideration:  Standards and codes  Persistance of savings  Other influences 12

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Methodology: LDC Load Forecasts (2015 -2020) Gross Forecast Disaggregated Reference Forecast Net Forecast Reference Forecast 13

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Methodology: Gross Forecasts (2015 -2020) 1 2014 OEB Energy Sales by Sector 2014 OEB energy sales by sector as reported in LDC Load Profiles, and adjusted for weather as appropriate. 3 2 Gross Annual Energy Gross Forecast Sales Growth Rates Energy Sales by Gross sector annual sector by year energy load growth for each LDC rates derived from IESO model 14

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Methodology: Net of Codes and Standards (C&S) Forecast (2015 -2020) 4 5 3 Net of C&S Gross Forecast Net C&S Annual Savings Forecast Energy Sales by Net sector annual energy load Energy Sales by sector by year for growth rates (includes impact sector by year for each LDC of codes and standards) each LDC derived from IESO analysis (inclusive of codes and standards) 15

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Methodology: Subtract Persistent Savings (Reference Case Forecast (2015 -2020)) 5 6 7 Persistence of OPA/IESO Net C&S Forecast Reference Forecast funded Program Savings and Other Influenced Savings Energy Sales by Energy Sales by sector sector by year for by year for each LDC each LDC (inclusive of codes and Persistent and influenced (inclusive of codes standards and net of energy savings by year by and standards) persistent / influenced LDC savings) 16

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Methodology: LDC Disaggregated Reference Forecasts (2015 -2020) 9 8 End Use Growth Rates LDC Load Profile Compound annual Energy Sales % by energy growth rates by Subsector by End Use end use 10 11 12 Subsector Growth Calibrate to Reference Disaggregated Rates Case Forecast Reference Forecast Compound annual Calibrated end use and Energy sales by sector, energy growth rates by subsector values per by subsector, by end subsector year, by LDC use, by year by LDC 17

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Example Draft Findings: LDC Reference Forecast Version Version 1 LDC Name LDC #1 IESO Zone Bruce Residential Commercial Industrial 2014 OEB Load (Weather Adj) 159,473,525 193,109,780 44,458,286 Annual Gross Growth Rates (%) Gross Forecast (kWh) Residential Commercial Industrial Res Com Ind 2015 163,460,363 194,017,858 47,189,554 2015 3% 0% 6% 2016 164,432,811 195,893,130 48,006,052 2016 1% 1% 2% 2017 165,925,140 196,914,529 49,479,397 2017 1% 1% 3% 2018 166,194,444 198,877,105 49,798,812 2018 0% 1% 1% 2019 167,082,678 199,406,951 49,978,169 2019 1% 0% 0% 2020 168,142,463 200,770,327 50,260,655 2020 1% 1% 1% Annual Net Growth Rates (%) Net Forecast (kWh) Residential Commercial Industrial Res Com Ind 2015 160,936,594 196,870,385 48,672,929 2015 -2% 1% 3% 2016 160,165,921 193,999,733 46,695,366 2016 -3% -1% -3% 2017 164,419,267 197,941,253 48,950,421 2017 -1% 1% -1% 2018 165,924,703 200,859,241 50,120,288 2018 0% 1% 1% 2019 166,189,697 203,926,349 50,158,173 2019 -1% 2% 0% 2020 167,075,956 202,143,024 49,976,573 2020 -1% 1% -1% Persistent/Influenced Savings (kWh) Reference Forecast (kWh) Residential Commercial Industrial Res Com Ind 2015 160,528,793 195,839,164 48,204,193 2015 407,801 1,031,220 468,737 2016 159,961,034 193,481,628 46,459,864 2016 204,887 518,105 235,502 2017 164,309,080 197,662,618 48,823,769 2017 110,187 278,635 126,652 2018 165,880,578 200,747,659 50,069,568 2018 44,126 111,582 50,719 2019 166,151,173 203,828,932 50,113,893 2019 38,524 97,417 44,281 18 2020 167,051,319 202,080,722 49,948,254 2020 24,637 62,301 28,319

Schedule and Next Steps 19

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Forecast Development Send final LDC Profiles and request info regarding Jan 25 significant loss of load. Next Steps LDCs provide data regarding significant load loss. Feb 5 Develop draft LDC load forecast. Feb 5 Finalize LDC load profiles and forecast. Feb 19 Questions about load forecast development activities? 20

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis LDC Load Forecast Development 21

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Achievable Potential Study: Archetype Programs Working Group Meeting Update January 22, 2016

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Archetype Programs Objective:  Define recommended program groupings (referred to as archetype programs) applicable to Ontario, and to be used as the basis for the achievable potential modelling.  Model at archetype program level to estimate achievable potential at LDC level. Purpose of Archetype Programs Characteristics of Archetype Programs:  Concept of archetype program.  Definition of:  Measures that are included  Subsectors and end uses being addressed  Delivery mechanism and supply chain  Financial incentive  Challenges and opportunities to consider  Attributes: Marketing approach, customer experience, type of incentive  Application of archetype program:  Adoption curve and assumptions Key element in potential analysis modelling:  Archetype programs are applied to LDC load profiles to derive achievable potential at LDC level. 24

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Archetype Programs Overview of methodology to develop archetype programs Gap analysis per sub-sector and end-use Develop list and Archetype review existing and Programs proposed Ontario programs Performance of existing Ontario programs Jurisdictional Research research of North characteristics of American programs success 25