2018 Election Goals for the Future of Work-Family Policy and the Aspen Family Prosperity Innovation Community Celinda Lake November 2018 1
Election Eve/Day Survey Results 2
A strong majority of adults believe education and job training is a favorable approach to help people get out of poverty, and would support this approach even if it raised their taxes. One program designed to help people who are living in poverty get out of poverty targets both parents and their children, so that parents get education and skills training to get a better job and at the same time their children get a good start with Head Start, early education, and quality schools. Do you favor or oppose this approach to helping people Do you favor or oppose this approach to helping people get out of poverty? get out of poverty, even if it raised your taxes? 86 81 In 2016: In 2016: 86% favor (75% strongly) 74% favor (56% strongly) 9% oppose (6% strongly) 21% oppose (12% strongly) 71 64 13 9 9 5 Favor Oppose Favor Oppose 3 Darker colors indicate intensity.
Though Republican and Independent support dips when discussing taxation, a majority of both groups strongly support. One program designed to help people who are living in poverty get out of poverty targets both parents and their children, so that parents get education and skills training to get a better job and at the same time their children get a good start with Head Start, early education, and quality schools. Do you favor or oppose this approach to helping people Do you favor or oppose this approach to helping people get out of poverty? get out of poverty, even if it raised your taxes? Democrat Independent Republican Democrat Independent Republican 94 92 82 77 76 69 81 80 72 23 60 59 50 13 14 14 4 4 15 10 11 7 2 2 Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose In 2016: 97% favor 80% favor 77% favor 88% favor 69% favor 60% favor 2% oppose 16% oppose 15% oppose 7% oppose 24% oppose 34% oppose 4 Darker colors indicate intensity.
Voters favor the federal government making childcare more affordable. The strongest framing is “investing in” child care. Do you favor or oppose the federal government having a Do you favor or oppose the federal government investing in role in making child care more affordable? making child care more affordable? 76 71 63 53 20 17 13 11 Favor Oppose Favor Oppose 5 Darker colors indicate intensity.
The strongest support for the federal government making child care more affordable comes from Democrats and Independents. Do you favor or oppose the federal government having a Do you favor or oppose the federal government investing in role in making child care more affordable? making child care more affordable? Democrat Independent Republican Democrat Independent Republican 92 85 71 71 63 55 35 82 32 70 19 57 50 45 15 36 6 25 5 20 11 10 4 2 Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose 6 Darker colors indicate intensity.
The 2018 Election Exit Polls: Family Demographics 7
Parents with children under 18 made up just under one third of all voters. Being a parent does not appear to increase or decrease a voter’s likelihood to support Democrats for Congress. Congressional Vote By Parental Status Parents Non-Parents (30%) (70%) 55 54 44 43 Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans 8 Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
A clear majority of women, regardless of parental status, supported the Democratic candidate. Men without children are somewhat more likely to support Democrats than fathers. Congressional Vote By Parental Status/Gender Men without children Women Without Fathers Mothers (34%) Children (36%) (14%) (16%) 60 59 51 50 48 47 39 39 Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans 9 Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
Women voted Democrat at higher rates than men, and younger voters voted Democrat at higher rates than older voters. However, older voters split their vote even. Congressional Vote By Gender and Age Age 18-44 Age 45 and over Women Men (35%) (65%) (52%) (48%) 61 59 51 50 49 47 40 36 Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans 10 Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
About half of voters consider their family’s financial situation unchanged from two years ago and two thirds of them supported the Democratic candidate. More than a third of voters consider themselves better off and overwhelmingly support the Republican candidate. Only about one in eight consider themselves worse off and are far more likely to support the Democrat. Congressional Vote by Family’s Financial Situation vs. Two Years Ago Better Today Worse Today About the Same (36%) (14%) (49%) 80 77 69 29 21 18 Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans 11 Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
The 2018 Election: Overview and Impacts for Families 12
Election Overview House Senate 2017 2018 House: Senate: Democrats net 40 seats Republicans expand majority 2 seats 2018: 235 D, 199 R 2018: 53 R, 47 D(+I) 13
Important House Wins for Families in the 2018 Election Over 100 women elected to the House, 33 of whom are non- incumbents. 14
Important Senate Wins for Families in the 2018 Election At least 12 women elected to the Senate, two of them are non-incumbents. 15
Election Overview State Houses Governors: Democrats win majorities in CO, CT, ME, NH, NY Democratic gains IL, KS, ME, MI, NV, NM, WI Senate, MN House, NH House Republicans win Republican gain in AK control of the AK State House. 16
Important Governorship Wins for Families in 2018 Michelle Lujan Grisham Tony Evers Laura Kelly New Mexico Wisconsin Kansas Gavin Newsom Jared Polis Gretchen Whitmer California Colorado Michigan 17
Important Ballot Initiatives for Families Passed in 2018 • Medicaid expansion: ID, NE, UT • Age requirements for firearms: WA • Anti-discrimination protections for transgender: MA • Restoring voting rights: FL • Minimum wage increases: AK, MO 18
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