2018 General Election A Pundit’s/Pollster’s Perspective July 26, 2018 By Bill Ballenger & Steve Mitchell
Providing Historical Context
Open Gubernatorial Campaigns And Mid ‐ Term Election Under the 1963 MI Constitution, every time there has been an open race for governor, the party out of power has won.
Mid ‐ Term Elections Party Not Holding White House Wins U.S Senate House and Senate Seats Lyndon Johnson – 1966 Ronald Reagan – 1982 Bill Clinton – 1994 Barack Obama – 2010 Job Approval: 44% Job Approval: 42% Job Approval: 48% Job Approval: 45% House: -47 House: -26 House: -52 House: -63 Senate: -4 Senate: +1 Senate: -8 Senate: -6
Political Landscape Job Approval Ratings of Trump and Snyder.
Snyder Job Approval Approve 70% 58% 56% 60% 49% 50% 42% 36% 40% Approve 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018
Trump Job Approval 70% 60% 50% 44% 43% Michigan Averages 40% 30% RCP National Poll Averages 20% 10% 0% 2018
Energy Issues • Energy issues generally are not high “top of mind” issues to voters. • When their electricity is off, NOTHING is more important. But when asked what is the most important issue facing the state, less than 2% say energy or “global warming” or “climate change.”
Flint Water Crisis • This has been a huge issue, but may not prove to be an effective issue for Democrats to use against Republicans in the election. • Attorney General Bill Schuette, the likely GOP nominee, was seemingly not part of the problem. • It will be hard to blame GOP lawmakers for what was a Snyder Administration issue.
Election Issues • Issues cited post ‐ office by voters are: – Roads/Bridges/Infrastructure 49% – Education/Quality/Funding 42% – Jobs/Economy/Wages 34% – Auto Insurance Rates 23% – School Safety 18% – Healthcare 17% – Health Insurance Access 17% – Taxes 11% *MRG Poll N=600 3/15 ‐ 17/18 (They could name 2 issues)
Likely Republican Gubernatorial Nominee 2018 • Lt. Gov. Brian Calley • Attorney General Bill Schuette
Likely Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee 2018 • Shri Thanadar Businessman • Gretchen Witmer Former MI Senate Minority Leader
Secretary of State/Attorney General • Both Attorney General Bill Schuette and Secretary of State Ruth Johnson are term limited and ineligible to run for another term. Bill Schuette Ruth Johnson
Democratic Attorney General Candidate Dana Nessel
Republican Attorney General Candidates Tom Leonard Tonya Schuitemaker
GOP Candidates for Secretary of State Mary Treder Lang Stan Grot Active in Republican politics serving as a Past Chairman of the Macomb • • Precinct Delegate, raising money for County Republican Party candidates Currently the 10th Congressional • Served as a member of the State District Republican Chairman. • Committee, where she chaired the Budget Committee
Democratic Candidate for Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson Narrowly lost • election to be SOS in 2010 Former Dean • at Wayne State Law School
U.S. Senate/U.S. House of Representatives Party Affiliation • There are currently: 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and 2 Independent • in the U.S. Senate. • 237 Republicans, 192 Democrats, and 6 vacant seats in the House of Representatives.
U.S. Senate/U.S. House of Representatives in Michigan • Both Michigan U.S. Senators are Democrats – Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters • There are 9 Republicans and 5 Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. • The most heated General Election battle in 2018 will likely be in the 8th CD – Mike Bishop (R) in Oakland, Livingston, Ingham, and 11 th CD Open (Trott (R) retiring) in Oakland , Wayne and perhaps 7 th CD (Walberg (R) Mid-Michigan. • There are also strong Primary Elections in CD 13 (Conyers resignation) and CD 9 (Levin retiring).
Democrat for U.S. Senate • Sen. Debbie Stabenow Running for 4 th 6 ‐ Year Term Raised: $13.2 million COH: $8.8 million
Top GOP U.S. Senate Candidates • John James Iraqi War Pilot Businessman Raised: $2.1 million COH: $1.2 million • Sandy Pensler Businessman Raised: $5 million COH: $4 million
Map of MI 8 th Congressional District
Michigan’s 8 th Congressional District Mike Bishop (R ) Lokesh Kumar (R ) Elissa Slotkin (D) Chris Smith (D) Raised: $2.9 million Raised: $2.1 million Raised: $123,000 • • COH: $1.34 million COH: $1.7 million COH: $42,000 • • Democrat Republican • • Former Defense Former MI Senate • • Department Majority Leader Official and U.S Congressman • Intelligence Analyst since 2015
Map of Michigan’s 11 th District
GOP Candidates 11 th CD Klint Kesto Kerry Bentivolio Raised: $28,000 Raised: $428,000 COH: $85 COH: $20,000 Lena Epstein - $1.03 million Rocky Raczkowski Mike Kowall Raised: $1.6 million COH: $658,000 Raised: $218,000 COH: $145,000
Democratic Candidate 11th CD Suneel Gupta Fayrouz Saad Haley Stevens Raised: $636,000 Raised $1.3 million COH: $314,000 COH: $800,000 Tim Greimel Nancy Skinner Raised: $1 million COH: $340,000 Raised: $816,000 COH: $456,000
Who All U.S. House Races Will Be About Donald Trump Nancy Pelosi
Map of Michigan’s 9 th District Democratic Primary
Michigan’s 9 th District Democratic Primary Andy Levin Ellen Cogen Lipton Martin Brook Raised: $864,000 Raised: $1 million Raised: $32,000 COH: $431,000 COH: $625,000 COH: $17,000
Map of Michigan’s 13 th District Democratic Primary
Michigan’s 13 th District Democratic Primary • Ian Conyers Raised: $181,000 COH: $61,000 • John Conyers III Raised: $3,100 COH: -$600 • Shanelle Jackson • Brenda Jones Raised: $168,000 COH: $53,700 • Rashida Tlaib • Bill Wild*(only white candidate) • Coleman Young II Raised: $31,000 COH: $5,500
Michigan State Senate and House of Representatives
Michigan Senate Breakdown There are currently 38 Michigan • State Senators 27 Republican • 11 Democrat • 1 Democrat Vacancy •
Michigan House of Representatives • All 110 seats are up for election this year. • The Republicans control the Michigan House by a 63-47 margin. • Up to 13 seats will be competitive in 2018. • With that in mind, I believe House Republicans will retain control again in 2018, though they will lose seats.
State Legislature ‐ Speaker Leonard and Senate Majority Leader Meekhof are term limited and unable to run in 2018 Tom Leonard Arlan Meeekhof Speaker of the House Senate Majority Leader
Future Speaker & Majority Leader Republicans Sen. Mike Shirkey Rep. Lee Chatfield Majority Leader Speaker
Important Races To MEGA • Gary Glenn versus Kevin Daley GOP Primary • Tom Barrett versus Brett Roberts GOP Primary Winner versus Kelly Rossman ‐ McKinney • • Aric Nesbitt versus Bob Genetski GOP Primary • Bill LaVoy (D) versus Dale Zorn (R) • Ken Horn(R) versus Henry GaudreauorPhil Phelps (D) • Ray Franz versus Bruce Rendon and Curt VanDerwall • Scott Dianda (D) versus Ed McBroom (R)
MI Supreme Court • There are 2 Republican justices up for election and 2 Democrats running for the Michigan Supreme Court on the November 8 non-partisan ballot.
MI Supreme Court Republicans Beth Clement Kurtis Wilder Former MI Court Former Legal of Appeals Judge Council appointed appointed by by Governor Governor Snyder Snyder in 2017 in 2017
MI Supreme Court Democrat Candidates Megan Cavanagh Sam Bagenstos Daughter of former Justice Mike • University of Michigan professor Cavanagh Graduate of University of MI College • of Engineering and Wayne State University Law School
2018 Ballot Proposals Committee Name Support/Oppose Ballot Proposal Description Coalition to Regulate Support To allow under state law the Marijuana Like Alcohol personal possession and use of marijuana by persons 21 years of age or older Voters Not Politicians Support Create an independent citizens redistricting commission Michigan One Fair Wage Support Gradually increase the hourly minimum wage from $10.00 in 2019 to $12.00 in 2022 MI Time to Care Support Requires employers to provide employees with paid sick leave Voting Rights Policies Support Creates state constitutional rights Initiative to certain voting policies
Thank You Bill Ballenger and Steve Mitchell Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. 314 Evergreen Suite B, East Lansing, MI 48823 steve@mitchellresearch.net Office: 517 ‐ 351 ‐ 4111 Cell: 248 ‐ 891 ‐ 2414
Recommend
More recommend
