Water, Climate, and Local Governance: Experience from the Pacific - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2 nd Conference on “Water Resource Sustainability Issues on Tropical Islands”, Dec 1-3, 2015, Honolulu, Hawaii Water, Climate, and Local Governance: Experience from the Pacific Islands Rashed Chowdhury, PhD Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center NOAA National Weather Service Joint Institute for Marine and atmospheric Research University of Hawaii at Manoa

Objec ectives tives (I) We synthesize the current operational climate forecasts, warning, and response activities of the ‘Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center’ for hazards management in Hawaii/Pacific Islands; & (II) Discuss the importance of El Ninõ/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based climate information products for enhancing the water governance capacity to address disasters.

3 Bac ackground: ground: Dem emand and for or Cus ustom omized ed Clim limate Se Service vices Climate Counts in the Pacific!! In 1990, th the Go Govern rnment in in the US USAPI reg egion expre ressed I. I. concern rn about about their heir vulner vulnerabilit ability to climat climate var varia iabilit bility; Expressed their heir need need for customized clima climate serv rvices— I. I. I. tailo ailored ed unde nderst stan andabl dable tech technica ical information and I. produ ducts fo for clima imate te se sens nsitive tive sectors rs (i (i.e. water resourc rces, agr agric icult ulture, e, healt health…… ……).

4 PEAC’ PEAC’s Res esear earch/Appl pplicat ation ons: Snaps napshot hot ENSO sensitive climate variability The The spat spatial resol esolut ution ion of of lar large ge-scal scale cli climat ate model odels I. I. are are too oo cour course to appl apply to thes hese is islan lands ds di direc rectly; II. The The cl climat ate variab variability/cha change ge in in the he Paci acific Isl slands ands II. are hi are highl ghly sens sensitive to EN ENSO SO; III. So, So, EN ENSO an and th the out output put of of th the lar arge ge-scal scale model dels III. are re use used to develop evelop st statist stical cal mod odel el for or clim limate forecas ecasts on on seaso asonal nal tim ime-sc scales ales.

SA B H G M NW P Nino 3 NINO 3.4 Nino 4 SP A S E W 5

El Niño in a nutshell Neutral Conditions: • Cold sea surface temperatures to the east and warm to the west • Strong trade winds blowing from east to El Niño Conditions: west • Warm sea surface • Rainfall over the temperatures to the Western Pacific east and cold to the west • Weakened trade winds, westerly winds over east Pacific • Rainfall over the Central and East La Niña occurs as Pacific an enhanced version of the neutral state.

Physical Consequences Asia N America Brazil S Africa SA Australia http://www.climate.gov/news-features/department/8443/all

8 Sea Level Observation mm Sea Levels have been • Below average over Western Pacific Basin • Above average over the Central and Eastern Pacific

9 El Niño and Tropical Cyclones El Niño shifts TC genesis Eastward over the North and South Western Pacific • Less TC activity • Australia • Philippines • More TC activity • Tropical Pacific • Hawaii • American Samoa From the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute http://www.knmi.nl/research/global_climate/enso/effects/

Social Consequences 10 Conflict risk associated with ENSO Drought is widely believed to relate to conflict! • a) Time series of NINO 3 and Annual Conflict Risk (ACR) for the teleconnected group • b) Linear and non-parametric fit of ACR against NINO 3 • c) Number of conflict onsets in teleconnected countries during • El Niño, solid bars • La Niña, hatched bars (Nature 476, 25 Aug 2011)

11 Impacts of ENSO: USAPI 1997-1998 El Niño 2007-2008 La Niña • Low rainfall/low sea level • Damage of roads and infrastructures • Water rationing in Majuro • Impacts on agriculture /aquaculture through Crop losses in F.S. of Micronesia, R. • inundations; decline in soil quality Marshall Islands, C.N. Mariana Islands • Changes in surface/groundwater quality • Palau experienced 9-month drought

Operational Products SST Com ompos posites for or low ow and and hi high gh sea sea level evel year years— Guam El Niño signal La Niña signal Probabilistic forecasts for sea level variability is possible well ahead of time….

13 Sea-level forecasts CCA cross-validation skill SST SST+ U % of change Guam Marshalls A Samoa Cross Validation skill 0.9 1.0 28 .0 C % of im provement C 0.7 20 .0 A 0.8 0.5 12 .0 s 0.3 0.6 k 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 4.0 i JFM AMJ JAS OND l Target Season 0.4 -4.0 X:75.8 X:75.5 X:76.0 X:73.1 Leading EOF (%) l 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 Y:91.0 Y:83.0 Y:84.0 Y:96.0 Guam Malakal Yap Pohnpei Majuro Kw ajalein PagoPago • CCA allows us to identify pairs of patterns of two multivariate data sets and construct transformed variables by projecting the original data onto these patterns (X: SST or SST-U; Y: SL )

Operational Products Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts • In the Pacific Islands “Water is Gold” • PEAC provides probabilistic outlook of seasonal rainfall forecasts from output of six dynamical model and two statistical models (including PEAC CCA) • Visual interpretation of current and forecast conditions • Forecasts are used to plan water resources, anticipate tourism, plan crops, prepare for a drought situation etc. CATCHMENT SURFACE GUTTER TANK

Curren ent t Method thodol olog ogy Current Methodology Above Koror Avg-Above Average Avg-Below Below 15

PEAC’s Cons nsens nsus foreca ecasts ts and Outr treac ach Climat ate e For Forec ecas asts, War arni ning ng, and and Res espons ponse e Activities es  Monthly Teleconference—  PEAC-forecasts (i.e., sea-level, rainfall, tropical cyclone etc.) are placed for discussion within a PEAC- sponsored teleconference;  The WSO from each of the island communities is invited to attend this conference;  Representatives from the forecasting centers are also invited--past, present, and future climatic conditions are brought up;  A consensus forecast is achieved ;  Seasonal forecasts for rainfall, TC, are expressed as probabilities of occurrence –SL in deterministic format. http:/ / www.prh.noaa.gov/ peac/ update.php  (https: / / www.facebook.com/ peaccenter)

Summary This ENSO-based seasonal climate outlook has significantly enhanced the local governance capacity to address water related disasters. 5-stage research and operational model--(i) forecasting , (ii) • interpretation and message formulation , (iii) warning preparation and dissemination , (iv) responses and feedback , and (v) review and analysis--is an efficient way to generate consensus seasonal climate outlook for hazard management; Interactive dialogue with “users” is essential and • should be continuous • (“eyeball-to-eyeball” communication important).

Conclu clusio sions The USAPI region is a classic example of ENSO-based forecasts, warning, and response activities, which has enhanced the local governance capacity to address water related disasters— Other ENSO-sensitive countries can benefit from these ENSO-based advanced climate information products for real-time response (adaptation) plan to address disasters! ENSO 2015-16 : Nothing but El Niño Photo courtesy of Lt. Charlene Felkley