Using the SAL technique for ensemble forecast verification Sabine - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 30, 2024 •144 likes •440 views

Why spatial verification? SAL Ensemble SAL MesoVICT data Results Conclusions Using the SAL technique for ensemble forecast verification Sabine Radanovics Until March 2017: LSCE/ESTIMR, now: CNRM/GMME/MICADO May 10, 2017 1 / 19 Why

Why spatial verification? SAL Ensemble SAL MesoVICT data Results Conclusions Using the SAL technique for ensemble forecast verification Sabine Radanovics Until March 2017: LSCE/ESTIMR, now: CNRM/GMME/MICADO May 10, 2017 1 / 19
Why spatial verification? SAL Ensemble SAL MesoVICT data Results Conclusions Why was spatial verification invented? 2 / 19
Why spatial verification? SAL Ensemble SAL MesoVICT data Results Conclusions Why was spatial verification invented? COSMO2 VERA CLEPS 50 48 prec 40 2007062100 30 20 46 10 0 44 5 10 15 5 10 15 5 10 15 Forecaster Paul 2 / 19
Why spatial verification? SAL Ensemble SAL MesoVICT data Results Conclusions Why was spatial verification invented? COSMO2 VERA CLEPS 50 48 prec 40 2007062100 30 20 46 10 0 44 5 10 15 5 10 15 5 10 15 Forecaster Paul 2 / 19
Why spatial verification? SAL Ensemble SAL MesoVICT data Results Conclusions Why was spatial verification invented? COSMO2 VERA CLEPS 50 48 prec 40 2007062100 30 20 46 10 0 44 5 10 15 5 10 15 5 10 15 Model developer Cate 3 / 19
Why spatial verification? SAL Ensemble SAL MesoVICT data Results Conclusions Why was spatial verification invented? COSMO2 VERA CLEPS 50 48 prec 40 2007062100 30 20 46 10 0 44 5 10 15 5 10 15 5 10 15 RMSE = 452.02 RMSE = 352.03 Model developer Cate 3 / 19
Why spatial verification? SAL Ensemble SAL MesoVICT data Results Conclusions Why was spatial verification invented? COSMO2 VERA CLEPS 50 48 prec 40 2007062100 30 20 46 10 0 44 5 10 15 5 10 15 5 10 15 RMSE = 452.02 RMSE = 352.03 → Need to develop verification that gives credit Model developer to the attributes Paul appreciates Cate 3 / 19
Why spatial verification? SAL Ensemble SAL MesoVICT data Results Conclusions SAL - Structure, Amplitude, Location (Wernli et al., 2008) Amplitude component A S = 0 A = 0.667 L = 0 obs fc 16 precip 12 6 5 4 y 3 8 2 1 0 4 4 8 12 16 4 8 12 16 x Doubled precipitation → relative Amplitude error A 4 / 19
Why spatial verification? SAL Ensemble SAL MesoVICT data Results Conclusions SAL - Structure, Amplitude, Location Location component L S = 0 A = 0 L = 0.442 obs fc 16 precip 12 3 2 y 8 1 0 4 4 8 12 16 4 8 12 16 x Shifted feature → location error of center of mass relative to domain size L 5 / 19
Why spatial verification? SAL Ensemble SAL MesoVICT data Results Conclusions SAL - Structure, Amplitude, Location Structure component S S = 0.4 A = 0 L = 0 obs fc 16 precip 12 3 2 y 8 1 0 4 4 8 12 16 4 8 12 16 x Flatten feature → structure error in terms of scaled feature volumes S 6 / 19

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