Update on Indonesia Climate Change Policy Development Dr. Medrilzam Director for Environment Affairs Ministry of National Development Planning/ National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS) Presented at the Workshop of Joint Crediting Mechanism Accelerating Private Sector Participation towards Low Carbon Development in Indonesia Jakarta, 30 November 2016
Addressing Economy-Poverty-Emission Nexus and Principles for Climate Change Policy in Indonesia: mainstreaming the Nexus into Development Plan Article 3.4 of UNFCCC ‘policies and measures to protect the climate system against human - induced … should be integrated with national development program …’ Article 4.7 of UNFCCC ‘ The extent to which developing country Parties will effectively implement their commitments under the Convention will depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology and will take fully into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties . ’ Article 2 Paris Agreement This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, including its objective, aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty .
Logical Framework of Climate Change Policy Exercise in Indonesia: POVERTY ECONOMY TRADE OFFS Waste Population CO2 Development Emission Policies ? Industry Economy Transportation Land Use Energy Focus for NDC Partnership: develop and implement sustainable development policies aiming toward strengthening economy, reducing poverty and GHG emission
Mainstreaming (i)NDC into Development Policy Agenda • Indonesia Ratify Paris Agreement National Mid Term (Law No.16/2016) Development Plan • No. 103 among UNFCCC parties • Plan to prepare investment strategy (I)NDC for 2020-2030. • Prepare database for (i)NDC • Improving (i)NDC regularly • Prepare the Presidential Regulation Annual Work Plan for Low Emission Development Strategy and SDGs • Input for Indonesia Vision 2045 Budget Aligment between Climate and Development Agendas with long term emissions mitigation and adaptation impact
Emission Baseline Indonesia : 2000-2030 (in ton CO2e) 3000000 Note: Coal as the main energy source 2500000 (RUEN, 2015) will shift the emission source from land to energy sector 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Energi dan transportasi IPPU Limbah AFOLU (no peat) Peat Dekomposisi Peat Fire
Total Emisi GRK dalam ribu ton CO2e 3,500,000 Skenario Fair: Reduksi Emisi sebesar 3,000,000 832 Mton CO2e atau setara 29 % dari BAU pada 2030 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Skenario Ambisius: Reduksi Emisi 1,000,000 sebesar 1,19 Giga ton ton CO2e atau setara 41 % dari BAU 500,000 pada 2030 - 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Baseline BAU Total Emisi Baseline Total Emisi Skenario Fair
Indonesia Low Emission Development PRE-2020 Economic Development Emission Target + Reduction 7% Target by Economic 2020 Growth LED Emission Reduction Target (Gton CO2e) by 2020 Sector 26 % 41 % - 26/41% Land Based Sector (Forestry, peatland 0.680 1.050 and agriculture) Reduction of GHG Energy Based Sector 0.036 0.056 Climate Change Objective IPPU 0.001 0.005 Waste Management Sector 0.048 0.078 Presidential Regulation No. 61/2011 on GHG Emission Reduction Action Plan
Beban Penurunan Emis isi Tia iap Sektor di di 2030 Skenario Fair di 2030 Skenario Ambisius di 2030 Jumlah (Mton CO2e) % Jumlah (Mton CO2e) % Baseline 2.881 - 2.881 - Penurunan Emisi: Hutan, Pertanian dan Gambut 545 19% 666 23.1% Energi 253 8.8% 472 16.4% IPPU 3 0.1% 6 0.2% Waste 31 1.1% 48 1.7% Total Penurunan emisi 832 29% 1,192 41% Berdasarkan 3 skenario kebijakan, hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa upaya penurunan emisi GRK tetap bertumpu pada sektor lahan mengingat pertimbangan kemudahan, biaya yang rendah tanpa memerlukan penguasaan teknologi canggih. Di sisi lainnya, masih terdapat delay dalam hal penguasaan teknologi mitigasi dan EBT di sektor energi sehingga belum dapat mengimbangi kebutuhan penurunan emisi dan energi yang ada.
Emisi per Kapita (dalam ton CO2/cap) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Emisi per Kapita BAU Emisi Per Kapita Skenario Fair Emisi Per Kapita Skenario Ambisius
Emisi per PDB (dalam ton CO2/ Miliar Rupiah) 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 - 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Emisi per PDB BAU Emisi per PDB Skenario Fair Emisi per PDB Skenario Ambisius
Hasil Sim imulasi (2010-2030) 2030) • Kurva 1 Skenario Baseline Level of National Poverty • Kurva 2 skenario Fair INDC • Kurva 3 Skenario Fair INDC + Kebijakan Harga 0.15 • Kurva 4 Skenario Fair INDC + Kebijakan Upah 0.10 • Kurva 5 Skenario Fair INDC + Kebijakan Distribusi Pendapatan 0.05 Kurva 3,4,dan 5 ditujukan untuk 0.00 mengatasi dampak dari kebijakan 2,000 2,002 2,004 2,006 2,008 2,010 2,012 2,014 2,016 2,018 2,020 2,022 2,024 2,026 2,028 2,030 INDC Fair (kurva 2) pada indikator *Level of National Poverty Level of National Poverty Level of National Poverty Fair mix Wage Level of National Poverty Fair mix ID kemiskinan Level of National Poverty Baseline Number of National Poor People Tampak bahwa masing-masing person skenario memberikan dampak 40,000,000 untuk mengatasi proyeksi 30,000,000 kemiskinan pada kondisi Fair (Kurva biru), tampak bahwa pada 20,000,000 kebijakan upah dampak penurunan 10,000,000 kemiskinan lebih signifikan dibandingkan pada skenario 0 2,000 2,002 2,004 2,006 2,008 2,010 2,012 2,014 2,016 2,018 2,020 2,022 2,024 2,026 2,028 2,030 kebijakan distribusi pendapatan *National poor people National poor people Number of national poor people baseline Number of national poor Fair mix Wage dan harga. Number of national poor Fair mix ID 11
Hasil Sim imulasi (2010-2030) 2030) • per year Pertumbuhan PDB Kurva 1 Skenario Baseline 0.06 • Kurva 2 skenario Fair INDC • Kurva 3 Skenario Fair INDC + 0.05 Kebijakan Harga • 0.04 Kurva 4 Skenario Fair INDC + Kebijakan Upah 0.03 • Kurva 5 Skenario Fair INDC + Kebijakan Distribusi Pendapatan 0.02 Pada indikator Laju Pertumbuhan 0.01 Ekonomi dan Emisi, pada variasi skenario Fair tidak memberikan banyak 0.00 2,000 2,002 2,004 2,006 2,008 2,010 2,012 2,014 2,016 2,018 2,020 2,022 2,024 2,026 2,028 2,030 perbedaan. *GROWTH PDB GROWTH PDB Growth PDB Baseline Growth PDB Fair mix Wage Growth PDB Fair mix ID Pada indikator LPE, range pertumbuhan CO2*Gg/year ekonomi pada akhir tahun simulasi 3,000,000 berada pada kisaran 5-6% per tahun dari berbagai variasi skenario. Namun yang terbaik adalah skenario Fair INDC 2,500,000 + upah, diikuti skenario fair INDC upah *TOTAL EMISSIONS Emission Fair mix Wage dan Skenario baseline TOTAL EMISSIONS 2,000,000 Baseline Emission2 Emission Fair mix ID Sementara untuk hasil emisi, besaran emisi skenario Fair dengan berbagai 1,500,000 variasinya tidak memiliki perbedaan yang signifikan. Penurunan berada pada besaran 29% 12 2,000 2,005 2,010 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030
Drivers to Achieve Low Emission Development Objectives: • Innovation and Technology • Human Productivity • Shifting from resource/extraction based industry to service based Industry • Enhancing private sector involvement and foreign direct investment
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