Cities and Climate Change UNU-WIDER Conference 2012 Climate Change and Development Policy Greening Cities in Developing Countries Marcus Lee Urban Development Unit, The World Bank www.worldbank.org/urban THE WORLD BANK
Urbanization continues apace across much of the world – more than 1 million new resident weekly Shenzen 30 years ago Shenzhen today Source for images: www.shenzenparty.com Source for data: WHO – Global Health Observatory, 2012 THE WORLD BANK
Africa is the next frontier for urbanization – take Nairobi, for example 70 1,400 60 1,200 urban population (millions) 50 1,000 percent urban 40 800 30 600 20 400 10 200 0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 urban population percent urban Created by: Henry Jewell (FEUUR), Katie McWilliams and Alex Stoicof, SDNIS-World Bank THE WORLD BANK
Cities are drivers of economic growth and prosperity – although urban poverty remains a challenge Source: W DR2 0 0 9 Percentage of national GDP generated in urban areas (McKinsey 2012): US: 85% China: 78% Western Europe: 65% THE WORLD BANK
Cities are essential for global climate change mitigation Up to 80% of global GHG emissions are ultimately attributable to the residents of cities (including embodied emissions) Cities account for 67% of global energy consumption today (IEA 2009) Cities need to build infrastructure now, to support the large population inflow, making them the fastest growing source of GHG emissions Cities continuously face the challenge to balance development and environmental needs THE WORLD BANK
Global trends in income, urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions Carbon dioxide emissions, 1967-2005 (tons per capita) 25 United States 20 15 Germany Korea, Rep. South Africa Japan 10 China Sweden 5 Brazil 0 India 15 35 55 75 Urban population ( % of total) Bubble size corresponds to total carbon dioxide emissions (kilotons) Source: World Development I ndicators THE WORLD BANK
Urban form and density significantly impact energy consumption Source: World Development Report, World Bank 2010 (World Bank Urban Strategy, 2009). THE WORLD BANK
Decisions today are limited by decisions in the past Source: Bertaud, A., and T. Pode, Jr., Density in Atlanta: Implications for Traffic and Transit (Los Angeles: Reason Foundation, 2007). THE WORLD BANK
Few cities with high incomes and low emissions… Source: World Bank, Towards a Partnership for Sustainable Cities (forthcoming) THE WORLD BANK
Sectoral analysis of GHG emissions from selected cities Source: World Bank, 2010. THE WORLD BANK
An international standard is essential for establishing baselines and monitoring progress Supported by UNEP , UN-HABITAT, World Bank and World Resources Institute http: / / blogs.worldbank.org/ sustainablecities THE WORLD BANK
Elements of a city-wide approach to mitigation efforts THE WORLD BANK
A city-wide approach to carbon finance enables aggregation of city GHG reductions across sectors Rationale: overcome hurdle of high transaction costs for individual CDM Project Activities (CPAs) in a given city The door is now open for city-wide Programmes of Activities (PoAs) Cancun: Decision 3/ CMP.6 – Parties requested CDM Executive • Board (EB) to simplify PoAs for multiple methodologies, “including for possible city-wide programmes” Sept 2011: EB 63/ Annex 4 – Standard for Application of Multiple • CDM Methodologies for PoAs VCS generally accepts all CDM rules, so now – in principle – could validate a city-wide project Rio de Janeiro is also developing and implementing its Low Carbon City Development Program – enables standardized MRV of emissions reductions Yet, uncertainty on post-2012 regime, and globally depressed carbon prices THE WORLD BANK
Exam ple: Tool for Rapid Assessm ent of City Energy ( TRACE) PUBLIC WATER & SOLID TRANSPORT BUILDINGS POWER & LIGHTING WASTEWATER WASTE HEATING An I nnovative Decision Support Tool for Evaluating Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Cities THE WORLD BANK
Urban vulnerability to climate change CITIES IN HIGHLY IMPACTED REGIONS: tropical, sub-tropical ecosystems, arid and water-stressed countries, island states COASTAL CITIES: all coastal cities, particularly those in deltaic environments, those with high levels of land-reclamation CITIES IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: where institutional resilience, financial resources and technical capacity are scarce Djibouti-Ville (Bigio)/Jakarta (Ratnaningsih) THE WORLD BANK
Climate change impacts on cities DI RECT I NDI RECT Sea level rise Frequency, intensity of natural disasters Flooding and landslides Accelerated urbanization Heat waves Environmental refugees Increased “heat island effect” Increased energy demand for heating or Water scarcity cooling Decreasing water Epidemics, worsening quality public health Worsening air quality Availability and pricing of Ground ozone food formation THE WORLD BANK
Annual global costs of adaptation, by sector 2010-2050, in USD billions SECTOR Clim ate Scenario DRY W ET Agriculture, forestry, 2 .5 2 .6 fisheries W ater supply 1 9 .7 1 4 .4 Hum an health 1 .5 2 .0 Coastal zones 2 7 .6 2 8 .5 I nfrastructure 1 3 .0 2 7 .5 Extrem e events 6 .4 6 .7 Total 7 1 .2 8 1 .5 Adding costs differently 7 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 2005 Constant Prices, 0% Discounting Source: World Bank 2010, Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change THE WORLD BANK
Urban Risk Assessment Adaptive capacity Probabilistic risk Household hazard and assessments; assessment software vulnerability surveys C fiscal transfers O M Risk modeling for Interventions gap Community profiles natural hazards and P C analysis and Slum mapping climate change L O Interventions E analysis; key S Hazard exposure Identification of resources, policies, X maps vulnerable areas T tools, programs, I coordination T Institutional mapping Socioeconomic Y Hazard analysis for for disaster risk and analysis of city city climate change residents I nstitutional Hazard Socioeconom ic Assessm ent Assessm ent Assessm ent Legal Basic I nform ation Dem ographic Foundations ; Land Use, Basic National/ Region Services, I nform ation al Fram ew orks Geophysical THE WORLD BANK
Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Cities • Guide for urban practitioners & mayors to understand specifics and importance of engaging in climate change adaptation at the city level • Provides practical insights about climate change for cities in developing countries, addressing main challenges & possible opportunities Suggests steps for integrated • climate change adaptation and ways to build partnerships Gives actual examples of actions at • the local level Proposes a roadmap for adaptation • and suggests performance indicators Analyzes financial challenges and • opportunities for adaptation at the city level Emphasizes cross-sectoral • collaboration and outlines 9 different sectors (informal PDF document at settlements, transportation, public http://go.worldbank.org/F6TB1XE3M0 health, etc.) THE WORLD BANK
Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban Poor Some key findings The urban poor are particularly vulnerable o to climate change and natural hazards due to where they live within cities and the lack of reliable basic services. Local governments play a vital role in o providing basic services to address risks and increase resilience of the urban poor. Adapting to climate change and reducing o disaster risk is best address and sustained through integration with existing urban planning and management. Significant financial support is needed; o cities need to leverage existing and new resources to meet shortfalls in service delivery and basic infrastructure THE WORLD BANK
Look to climate finance more broadly, but there is less available than commonly thought THE WORLD BANK
UNDP-WB effort: www.climatefinanceoptions.org THE WORLD BANK
Learning: Clim ate Finance opportunities in cities This m odule is part of a learning course on CDM PoA THE WORLD BANK
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