Presentation for CODATU2015 – Energy, Climate Change and Air quality Challenges: The Role of Urban Transport Policies in Developing Countries - 3 rd February 2015 Climate Change, Transport and Cities David Banister Professor of Transport Studies and Director of the Transport Studies Unit School of Geography and the Environment Oxford University, UK.
Presentation Outline 1. Cities and Growth 2. Cities and Change 3. Reflections and Prospects Sense of place and sustainable transport Speed and scale of change City resilience Public transport cities 4. Conclusions and challenges
1. Cities and Growth: Transport in Global Cities – the new agenda Population growth 1900 13% 0.25 Billion 1.8 Billion rates, migration and 2000 47% 2.8 Billion 6.0 Billion provision of 2030 60% 5.0 Billion 8.2 Billion infrastructure 2050 67% 6.4 Billion 9.5 Billion
Growth in Cities and in Urban Population City Size Number of Cities Population in Cities (millions) 1965 2010 2020 2030 1965 2010 2020 2030 >10 million 3 23 36 41 49 370 588 730 5-10 million 12 40 50 63 80 285 333 434 1-5 million 112 373 472 558 212 742 931 1128 500k – 1 million 152 487 592 731 105 339 410 509 300k-500k 201 628 742 832 78 238 285 319 <300k 663 1607 1778 1922 660 1598 1791 1938 Total 1143 3158 3760 4147 1184 3572 4338 5058 Based on UN (2015) DESA data
The Growth in Mega Cities Reached 2025 levels in 8 years, not 18 years – as shown here Currently (2014) 29 cities >10 million
Mega City Regions – High Speed Rail Connectivity - China The Pearl River Delta Nine large cities will coalesce – mega city region – 30 million. Huge infrastructure investment ($300 billion – 2011-2017) – with 3100 miles of rail so that travel times between any centre will be under 60 mins – close links to Hong Kong (7 million)
2. Cities and Change High proportion of the total population 1. Global risk – floods, are at risk of flooding, including winds, sea surge Bangladesh (46%), Egypt (38%) and Vietnam (55%) 2. Urban planning and governance London Olympics – 2012 3. Opportunity and Before After engagement – but also homelessness, crime, poverty – need for energy, water, waste, pollution controls – reuse of industrial land - regeneration
City Resilience + Climate Change Cities and vulnerability – 40% world cities (1-10m) and 20/29 mega cities coastal – storm surges, river flooding and intensity of rain.
3. Reflections and Prospects Sense of Place and Sustainable Transport Eight sustainability dimensions 1. Three energy themes 2. Three for more local production 3. Place strategies 4. Transport strategies Place Strategies – to Transport Strategies – promote the human quality fast transit along dimension – driving corridors – dense TODs – other strategies – pedestrian and cycle engagement practices strategies and infrastructure – EV infrastructure – green wall boundary to prevent further urban growth
Speed and Scale of Change: Population Growth in Five World Cities Shanghai’s residential population (2010) was 23.02 25.00 million, increasing by 6.28 million since 2000. Including only Shanghai hukou, the population was 14.12 million (2010) and this has decreased for the past 18 years. 20.00 Beijing’s residential population (2010) was 19.61 million, City Population (million) which exceeds the target population for 2020 (18 million), and its hukou population was 12.46 million. 15.00 London Shanghai Beijing New York 10.00 Tokyo 5.00 0.00 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Year
Air Pollution – Major Health Problem for Cities Harbin – October 2013 Shanghai – December 2013
Public Transport Cities and Active Transport Mercer Ranking 2014 by Walk Cycle Public Total Quality of Life and Trips % Transport 1. Vienna 2010 28 5 36 69 2. Zurich 2001 8 5 63 74 3. Auckland 2008 13 2 8 23 4. Munich 2008 28 14 21 63 5. Vancouver 2007 17 3 17 37 27 3 30 60 6. Dusseldorf 2004 11 5 31 47 7. Frankfurt 2004 11 7 39 57 8. Geneva 2010 49 17 66 9. Copenhagen 2004 6 36 29 71 10. Bern 2001 11 11 54 76 Notes: The dates refer to the transport data in the table. Vancouver has two figures, one for the city and the other (higher) for the downtown, and Geneva has a combined figure for walk and cycle. Sources: http://www.imercer.com/products/2014/quality-of-living.aspx and various datasets
Investment in Public Transport, Walk and Cycle - Integration Transit Oriented Development – BRT Corridor Curitiba Transport Development Area Canary Wharf London
New York City - Broadway at Times Square in 2007 and 2009
Copenhagen : Carbon neutral by 2025 68% of residents cycle >1 per week 90% think the city is a good place for cyclists Cyclists seriously injured have fallen by >60% since 1996 Benefits = speed, convenience, health costs
Four key elements for sustainable transport and urban development 1. Governance and Decision Making 1. Speed that the land use system can respond to change 2. Flexibility in planning horizons and cross sectoral cooperation 3. New agenda requires agility, vision and leadership 2. Sustainable Development and Decoupling 1. Broader interpretations of development – linked to SD: to include ecological footprints, HDI, Gini coefficients and renewable energy 2. Cities of in-migration, economic growth and potential doubling of motorised vehicles every 5-7 years – need for absolute decoupling of transport growth from economic growth
3. Space: Capacity and Yield Management Investment in Public Transport and Demand Management Transformational Change – 3 Ideas 1. Shrink the car – space and parking 2. Rethink the car – new mode of city transport – shared and leased 3. Use available capacity in cars, vans, buses and trains – empty space Technological change is really about social processes
4. People and Participation 1. Engagement of stakeholders throughout the debate to explain, raise expectations and to deliver change in a positive way; 2. Increasing use of internet and social media to achieve this and through giving people choices – online voting for change – ‘people power’. The internet based economy allows activities to take space almost anywhere, even whilst travelling. But despite all these overlapping changes and the complexities that this leads to, there is still a need for face to face contact – this is the new rationale for cities
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