Tomorrow’s Railway and Climate Change Adapta7on (T1009) Presenta7on for Transport Day Break-out session: Transport and Adapta7on to Climate Change: Impacts, Policy, and Finance Sunday 6 th December 2015 Michael Woods, John Dora RSSB
What is the Tomorrow’s Railway and Climate Change Adapta7on Programme? A RSSB funded research study (ref T1009) sponsored by the Technical Strategy Leadership Group. T1009 explores the need to increase the resilience of the GB railway in response to an7cipated changes in key climate variables. Phase 1: Comprehensive knowledge review and knowledge gap analysis. Phase 2: Improve knowledge of climate change vulnerabili7es and develop support tools to increase resilience of the GB railway. 6 December 2015
Key ques7ons the research has addressed (Phase 1) and is addressing (Phase 2) § 1. Projected clima7c change in the UK over the next 50 years. § 2. Impacts of climate change and extreme weather on the railway. § 3. Ac7ons taken by GB rail industry in response to these poten7al impacts. § 4. Proposed future ac7ons, including 'quick wins' which can be implemented over the next few years. § 5. Requirements for addi7onal decision support frameworks, processes, and tools, to permit cost-effec7ve ac7on to be taken. § Phase 1 has answered the first three objec2ves, and addressed the fourth, while Phase 2 is now focussing on answering objec2ves four and five in more detail. 6 December 2015 3
Research Phase 1 Outputs and Findings 4
Where to find Phase 1 outputs § New climate change adapta.on page has been created on the RSSB website – summary of high level informa7on and gateway to further informa7on. www.rssb.co.uk/improving-industry-performance/climate-change-adapta7on 6 December 2015 5
A compendium of knowledge … § New climate change adapta.on page on SPARK. § ~470 individual ‘records’ about climate change impacts and weather resilience relevant to GB railway (~700 references collated in Phase 1). § Phase 1 final report, execu.ve summary and research brief. § Communicated to rail industry via RSSB regular newslehers (eg ‘The Knowledge’). www.sparkrail.org/pages/climatechange.aspx 6 December 2015 6
Phase 1 - Recommenda7ons § Over 120 recommenda7ons made in Phase 1 final report. § Dis7lled and priori7sed into 10 key areas of recommenda7ons by members of the Steering Group for dissemina7on to industry. § Short term recommenda7ons considered as poten7al ‘Quick Wins’. § All short, medium and long term recommenda7ons are being reviewed in Phase 2. § Phase 2 will also highlight areas of recommenda7ons not being addressed within the scope of T1009 which may form future research projects. NB All short, medium and long term recommenda2ons available in Phase 1 full report and execu2ve summary 6 December 2015 7
Phase 1 recommenda7ons: quick wins, short, medium, long term Quick Win Ac*on owner Compile a database of assets, including Mostly Network Rail but of relevance to Phase 1 short term recommenda0on ‘Quick Wins’ buildings, which are vulnerable to one whole railway – therefore a guidance / Phase 1 medium term recommenda0on or more of the following: excess rainfall; good prac@ce document would be a first drought; fluvial flooding and/or coastal step towards consistency where Quick Win Ac*on owner Phase 1 long term recommenda0on – example 3 Theme of recommendations System Climate change related risk for Specific key recommendations (with relevant climate variables Time scale flooding. This would be equivalent to commonality exists led by RSSB. § Earthwork debris detec0on systems GB railway system in brackets) for action Compile a database of assets, including Mostly Network Rail but of relevance to Theme of recommendations System the cri@cal rail temperature (CRT) Climate change related risk Specific key recommendations (with relevant climate Infrastructure Time scale Changing patterns of Focus on lineside management Determine which earthworks debris detection systems are Medium buildings, which are vulnerable to one whole railway – therefore a guidance / § Adap%ve pathways approach for GB railway system variables in brackets) for action issues which affect infrastructure most effective (High precipitation, Low precipitation). term precipitation with consequences register for stress free temperatures or more of the following: excess rainfall; Then a programme of assessment for good prac0ce document would be a first for soil moisture levels and and ‘weather and climate Long term Infrastructure Increased risk of flooding from Adaptive pathways and Take an ‘adaptive pathways’ approach, such as that stability. resilient’ design and heavy rainfall events, high lifecycle cost analysis for developed by the Thames Estuary 2100 project to the drought; fluvial flooding and/or coastal step towards consistency where management options with (SFT). Assess vulnerabili@es of assets individual duty holders. Opportunity to sea levels and storm surges reducing vulnerability of long term management of the GB railway to improve Example of how to manage multiple benefits. with consequences for infrastructure, assets and the resilience of infrastructure to flood risk and storm flooding. This would be equivalent to commonality exists led by RSSB. operations. hazards including interdependencies and ‘knock manage as one programme via RSSB as resilience of infrastructure and damage (High precipitation, High winds, High sea the cri0cal rail temperature (CRT) assets. levels and storm surge). on effects’ required by the industry. Must register for stress free temperatures Then a programme of assessment for (High precipita-on, Low precipita-on, recognise that a lot of work in this area (SFT). Assess vulnerabili0es of assets individual duty holders. Opportunity to Source: including interdependencies and ‘knock manage as one programme via RSSB as TE2100 Plan, High sea levels and storm surges). has been carried out by Network Rail in Nov 2012 on effects’ required by the industry. Must recent months. (High precipita-on, Low precipita-on, recognise that a lot of work in this area High sea levels and storm surges). has been carried out by Network Rail in recent months. NB All short, medium and long term recommenda-ons are available in Phase 1 full report and execu-ve summary T1009 Waterfront Presenta0on 12 November 2015 8 Impact example: Harbury landslip, January 2015 NB All short, medium and long term recommenda5ons are available in Phase 1 full report and T1009 Waterfront Presenta0on 12 November 2015 9 execu5ve summary 10 T1009 Waterfront Presenta0on 12 November 2015 NB All short, medium and long term recommenda2ons are available in Phase 1 full report and execu2ve summary 6 December 2015 8
Summary of Phase 1 recommenda7ons Develop exis7ng infrastructure design and § maintenance approaches, especially for earthworks. Heat related Implement lifecycle cos7ng and adap7ve § non-work days pathways approaches, including considera7on of for mitigating track buckle re-rou7ng key routes. likelihood – Increase and integrate good quality data about § 2040s assets, weather events and opera.ons to inform predic.ve modelling and response Enhance the industry’s ability to model and § predict the impacts of combined and successive weather events. Improve communica.ons about weather events § and climate change, throughout the industry. Review all relevant design and opera7onal § standards and guidance (ie ISO, BS, Eurocode, Network Rail, RIS). 6 December 2015 9
T1009 Phase 2 – s7ll in progress 10
Phase 2 Overview 6 December 2015
Economics of Climate Change Adapta7on DraF recommenda.ons Task 1 looked at economic appraisal. A framework model for assessing climate Tradi7onal transport economic change adapta7on strategies and op7ons appraisal methodologies do not within the rail industry based upon Cost adequately assess spending decisions Benefit Analyses. related to adapta7on and resilience. A future climate change resilience appraisal framework based upon the exis7ng comprehensive WebTAG and Green Book frameworks for taking investment decisions, with improved treatment and considera7on for example of: discount rate, the 7me period of analysis, uncertainty (unquan7fiable risk), missing informa7on, budget constraints, decision-making responsibility. The effort employed on appraisals should be propor7onate to the investment within the framework model. 6 December 2015
Learning from other countries Task 2 found that similar countries are France, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Denmark. France appears as both a mid-21 st century and end-21 st century weather analogue. Fact sheets have been draled on management of effects of flooding, heat and winter. DraF recommenda.ons Coopera7on with analogue countries to discuss measures used to manage the effects of extreme weather could benefit the GB railway system. 6 December 2015
Metrics suppor7ng the management and adapta7on of the rail network Task 3 found that the few metrics directly related to helping railway operators to manage weather and climate change, focus on flooding and winter weather related issues. DraF recommenda.ons Develop robust ‘journey availability’ metric. 6 December 2015
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