Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2016 Investor Update Conference Call February 10, 2017
Safe Harbor Statement Forward-Looking Statements The information contained in this presentation includes certain estimates, projections and other forward-looking information that reflect Calpine’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These estimates, projections and other forward-looking information are based on assumptions that Calpine believes, as of the date hereof, are reasonable. Inevitably, there will be differences between such estimates and actual results, and those differences may be material. There can be no assurance that any estimates, projections or forward-looking information will be realized. All such estimates, projections and forward-looking information speak only as of the date hereof. Calpine undertakes no duty to update or revise the information contained herein other than as required by law. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the estimates, projections and other forward-looking information in this presentation as they are based on current expectations and general assumptions and are subject to various risks, uncertainties and other factors, including those set forth in Calpine’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, and in other documents that Calpine files with the SEC. Many of these risks, uncertainties and other factors are beyond Calpine’s control and may cause actual results to differ materially from the views, beliefs and estimates expressed herein. Calpine’s reports and other information filed with the SEC, including the risk factors identified in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, can be found on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and on Calpine’s website at www.calpine.com. Reconciliation to U.S. GAAP Financial Information The following presentation includes certain “non-GAAP financial measures” as defined in Regulation G under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Schedules are included herein that reconcile the non-GAAP financial measures included in the following presentation to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP. 2
Agenda • Welcome and Safe Harbor Bryan Kimzey Vice President, Investor Relations • CEO Review Thad Hill President, Chief Executive Officer • Operations Review Trey Griggs EVP and President, Calpine Retail • Financial Review Zamir Rauf EVP, Chief Financial Officer • Q&A 3
Continuing Our Solid, Stable Track Record ($ millions) Consistently Delivering Recent Achievements • Executing on strategic priorities Adjusted EBITDA 1 Wholesale Power Operations $1,800 - $1,950 $1,949 $1,976 — Record safety performance: Lowest-ever TRIR of 0.55 $1,830 $1,815 $1,749 — TX merchant plants with full-year capacity factors >65%: Bosque, Freestone, Pasadena 2 Retail Acquisitions — Completed framework of retail platform: Closed on accretive acquisition of Calpine Energy Solutions 3 — Acquired North American Power, representing a 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E low-multiple bolt-on to our residential retail footprint • Continuing to optimize portfolio Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1 — Closed on sale of Osprey Energy Center — Closed on sale of Mankato Power Plant • Proactively and responsibly managing balance sheet $710 - $860 $842 $830 — Accelerating delevering: $2.7B by 2019 $736 $677 $564 — Reducing interest expense — Extending maturities — Increasing revolver capacity 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E Reaffirming 2017 guidance Reaffirming 2017 guidance 1 A non-GAAP financial measure. Reconciliations of Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow to Net Income (Loss), the most comparable U.S. GAAP measure, are included in the appendix. 2 Pasadena unit 2 (non-cogen). 3 Formerly Noble Americas Energy Solutions; now also referred to as “Solutions.” 4
CEO Outlook Clean, Flexible Power Markets Wholesale Fleet Texas: “Something’s gotta give” • Efficient natural gas-fired power plants capable + Load growth continues of meeting ramping needs of evolving + No new fossil after 2017 power grids — More renewables coming, but growth may slow Nation’s largest operator of combined heat and • East: “Location, location, location” power resources and renewable geothermal + Opportunity for EMAAC to separate? resources — Backwardated forward energy curve California: “Physics will prevail” Dedication to best-in-class operations and • — Energy markets challenged by renewables maintenance preserves competitive + Significant recent and potential future advantage retirements Integrated platform Expanded Gov/Reg Customer Channels Environment • Consistent wholesale origination efforts to meet + Clear affirmation of federal jurisdiction over customer needs under contracts state • Retail platform now complete + New FERC commissioners Residential ‒ — Nuclear interference in competitive markets Indirect C&I ‒ and some state RPS, but… Direct C&I ‒ + …Commitment from RTOs to preserve market • Customer focus provides opportunity for stable philosophy (and increased) Adj. EBITDA Calpine’s position in evolving power industry creates compelling value opportunity Calpine’s position in evolving power industry creates compelling value opportunity 5
2017 Objectives Maintain excellent safety performance Achieve FOF <2.5% DELIVER SOLID, STABLE DELIVER SOLID, STABLE DELIVER SOLID, STABLE Complete York 2 CASH FLOWS CASH FLOWS CASH FLOWS Pay off ~$850M 1 of debt Complete annual portfolio review Deliver on Adj. EBITDA guidance of $1,800 - $1,950 M NE Residential TX Residential Broker C&I TX GLO (NAP) SUCCESSFULLY SUCCESSFULLY SUCCESSFULLY Direct C&I Wholesale INTEGRATE INTEGRATE INTEGRATE Origination EXPANDED EXPANDED EXPANDED Solutions Champion Management Management RETAIL PLATFORM RETAIL PLATFORM RETAIL PLATFORM Enterprise + Hedging Systems Wholesale Fleet • Commitment to delever • Accelerate debt paydown: $2.7B committed or planned over next EXECUTE ON three years DELEVERING PLAN • Reduce leverage by ~1.5x by FYE 2019 2 • Philosophy: Delevering creates equity value 6 1 Includes repayment of Solutions bridge loan, scheduled amortization, repurchase of lessor interest in Pasadena lease and call of remaining 2023 notes (funded by ~$53 million in cash on hand and a $400 million term loan due 2019). Amount excludes call premium of ~$18 million. 2 At midpoint of 2017 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range.
Commitment to Delevering ($ millions) Accelerating Debt Paydown Delevering Accretes Value to Equity $750 ~$2,700 ~$15.7 B ~$15.7 B ~67% of ~67% of current current Enterprise Value 3 $453 market market cap 3 cap 3 +$7.50/ $550 share $925 2017 - 2019: 2017: 2017: 2019: Total Planned Current Post-Paydown, Scheduled Debt Repay Solutions Call Remaining Call Debt Paydown 4 2 Same Multiple 1 Paydown Bridge 2023 Notes 2022 Notes (2017 - 2019) Debt Equity • $2.7B of debt paydown equates to ~$7.50/share 4 of equity value at current multiple • Plan not dependent upon any proceeds from asset sales • Once executed, leaves no further corporate maturities until 2023 1 Includes scheduled amortization, repurchase of lessor interest in Pasadena lease, and assumption of CPN exercise of OMEC put and the associated retirement of OMEC debt. 2 To be partially financed with $400 million term loan due 2019, which we plan to repay in 2018. Amount shown does not include call premium of ~$18 million. 3 Based upon closing stock price as of 02/09/17. 7 4 Reflects impacts of $2.7B of debt paydown, assuming constant Adj. EBITDA, multiple and share count.
OPERATIONS REVIEW 8
Focused on Best-in-Class Operations Employee Total Reportable Incident Rate Generation in Key Markets (000 MWh) 1 Key YoY Return to normal hydro Reversal of coal/gas Granite Ridge Drivers: Sutter/South Point Garrison switching EEI Top Quartile 2 49,377 47,877 35,434 0.75 30,751 29,277 Record Low 0.55 20,702 5,559 5,554 3-Yr. Avg. 2016 3 West - Gas West - Geo Texas East 2015 2016 Portfolio Changes Forced Outage Factor (FOF, %) Plants with no recordable injuries and < 2 % FOF for 2016 Agnews Gilroy Peakers Pine Bluff Without wildfire Baytown Hermiston Riverview 0.7 Bethlehem King City Cogen RockGen 0.2 Bosque King City Peaker Russell City Corpus Christi Lambie Westbrook Without wildfire Deer Park Los Esteros Wolfskill Delta Metcalf York Edge Moor Mid-Atlantic Peakers** Yuba City 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 Freestone Morgan Zion 1.7 1.3 Geysers* Pastoria 3,4 4 3 West - Gas West - Geo Texas East CPN *Geysers includes: Big Geysers, Calistoga, Cobb Creek, Eagle Rock, Lake View, Ridge Line, Sonoma, Sulphur Springs. 2015 2016 **Mid Atlantic Peakers includes: Christiana, Crisfield, Delaware City, Tasley. 1 As compared to our SEC filings, generation shown here includes net interest in generation from our unconsolidated power plants and plants owned but not operated by us. 2 According to EEI Safety Survey (2015). 3 2016 data for West-Gas and CPN shown excluding Sutter (where operations have been suspended) and South Point (pending sale). 9 4 Including the impacts of the wildfire, 2016 FOF for the Geysers was 7.4 and for the CPN fleet was 2.3; 2015 FOF for the Geysers was 7.6 and for the CPN fleet was 2.3.
Recommend
More recommend