Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
County Population New York State Columbia 63,096 Dutchess 297,498 Greene 49,221 Hudson Valley Orange 372,813 Putnam 99,710 Rockland 311,687 Sullivan 77,547 Ulster 182,493 Westchester 949,113 Total Population: 2,403,168 Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
9 Counties New York State 13 Cities 88 Villages Hudson Valley 137 Towns 123 School Districts 5,835 square miles Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Changing Real Estate Market High Demand for Rental Housing Shifting Demographics Declining Federal and State Funding “Underwater” Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Positive signs of Recovery Existing Home Sales: Increase of home sale by 8% - July 2012 to August 2012 Increase of home sales by 10% - August 2011 to August 2012 30-year mortgage rates at a record low of 3.49% Increase in existing homes sales price of 10.2% from August 2011 to August 2012 to $188,700 Median Days on Market down from 92 days to 70 days – a 23.9% decline year-over-year Year-over-year sales in the Northeast jumped by 15.2% Source: National Association of Realtors Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Positive signs of Recovery Unemployment, Debt and Spending: National Unemployment has dropped by 1% - August 2011 to August 2012 - now at 8.1% Household debt fell by .5% in Q2 2012 Mortgage delinquency rates and debt on cars & credit cards all declined in Q2 2012 12% decline in new foreclosure listed on credit reports Q1 to Q2 of this year – lowest level since 2007 Department of Commerce – “cooling” Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US Bureau of Labor Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
% change from Median Median Median Median Median Median Median Median Geographic Area Highest Annual Sales 2004 Sales 2005 Sales 2006 Sales 2007 Sales 2008 Sales 2009 Sales 2010 Sales 2011 Median to 2011 -16.67% Columbia County $215,000 $237,000 $232,250 $240,000 $222,500 $199,950 $199,950 $200,000 -28.57% Dutchess County $300,000 $342,000 $350,000 $335,000 $310,000 $275,000 $270,000 $250,000 -15.00% Greene County $139,000 $164,000 $174,500 $172,750 $180,000 $165,000 $160,000 $153,000 -22.36% Orange County $285,000 $317,600 $320,000 $322,000 $290,000 $260,000 $255,000 $250,000 -20.73% Putnam County $385,000 $410,000 $410,000 $400,000 $373,000 $335,000 $315,000 $325,000 -21.69% Rockland County $445,000 $498,000 $495,000 $495,000 $450,000 $420,000 $415,000 $390,000 Sullivan County -22.99% $135,000 $159,000 $170,330 $174,000 $149,450 $125,000 $125,000 $134,000 -21.96% Ulster County $215,000 $250,000 $250,000 $255,000 $240,000 $209,000 $214,000 $199,000 -12.41% Westchester County $640,000 $670,000 $669,000 $685,000 $650,000 $580,000 $630,000 $600,000 Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
…appears to be bottoming out Q1 Median Q1 Median % change Q2 Median Q2 Median % change Geographic Area Sales 2011 Sales 2012 Q1: '11-'12 Sales 2011 Sales 2012 Q2: '11-'12 Columbia County $208,000 $178,000 -14.42% $181,500 $185,000 1.93% Dutchess County $252,000 $239,250 -5.06% $247,250 $240,000 -2.93% Greene County $164,950 $140,500 -14.82% $159,900 $158,501 -0.87% Orange County $266,634 $250,000 -6.24% $246,750 $242,300 -1.80% Putnam County $349,000 $277,500 -20.49% $320,000 $299,500 -6.41% Rockland County $389,000 $372,000 -4.37% $385,000 $377,000 -2.08% Sullivan County $125,000 $100,000 -20.00% $120,000 $115,000 -4.17% Ulster County $202,500 $173,000 -14.57% $189,000 $203,500 7.67% Westchester County $552,500 $505,500 -8.51% $622,750 $619,000 -0.60% Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Foreclosures: 12% of August 2012 National sales Average Discount of 19% Short Sales: 10% of August 2012 National sales Average Discount of 13% Total of 22% of total sales for August 2012 Foreclosures and Short Sales: 31% of the total national sales August 2011 Source: CoreLogic Loan Performance and Lender Processing Services Mortgages Performance data Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
% of Mortgages 90 Days Delinquent Mar-11 Mar-12 6.0% 5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 5.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: CoreLogic Loan Performance and Lender Processing Services Mortgages Performance data Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
% of Mortgages in Foreclosure Mar-11 Mar-12 12.0% 10.7% 10.0% 8.4% 8.3% 7.9% 8.0% 7.4% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 5.6% 6.0% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.6% 4.2% 4.2% 3.6% 4.0% 3.4% 2.0% 0.0% Source: CoreLogic Loan Performance and Lender Processing Services Mortgages Performance data Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Foreclosures Geographic Area July 2012 August 2012 % change Columbia County 93 109 17.20% Dutchess County 220 283 28.64% Greene County 70 71 1.43% Orange County 1950 1992 2.15% Putnam County 622 627 0.80% Rockland County 1719 1822 5.99% Sullivan County 141 143 1.42% Ulster County 149 160 7.38% Westchester County 3142 3265 3.91% Hudson Valley Total 8106 8472 4.52% Source: RealtyTrac Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Existing Programs: Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Home Affordable Refinance Program Home Affordable Modification Program Second Lien Modification Program Home Affordable Unemployment Program Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Three Essential Questions: 1. Who wants to buy? 2. Where do they want it? 3. What will it look like? Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Defined as the generation of people born between 1978 and 2000 76 million people 2 nd largest generation after the Baby Boomers Faced with many obstacles Home ownership demands differ Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Projected growth from 333,145 to 477,825 by 2030 (65+) Represents a 43.4% increase or nearly 145,000 people Orange County – 74% increase or just over 30,000 people Caution: 2030 to 2040 = .3% increase Plan accordingly 7,800 existing units in the Mid Hudson Counties with a current population of 120,000 in the 65+ age cohort Projected growth in the Mid Hudson > 192,000 by 2030 Enough Units? Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Senior Communities should include easy access to medical treatment, cultural activities, transportation and shopping Consider senior housing on college campuses Create multi-generational housing Increase subsidies in order to meet the demand for affordable homes Streamline the approval process for developers – so they may react to the market faster Increase supportive services for “Aging in Place” Develop smaller, energy efficient homes with little or no maintenance Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Direct Federal Allocations of CDBG and HOME Program and % change 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Geography 2008 to 2012 -21.99% CDBG (H.V.) $22,325,028 $22,797,009 $24,507,264 $20,524,939 $17,415,609 -46.22% HOME (H.V.) $8,452,173 $9,426,074 $9,333,574 $8,273,676 $4,545,384 -14.38% CDBG (NYS) $47,471,352 $48,376,971 $52,570,558 $44,032,414 $40,642,169 -43.97% HOME (NYS) $34,340,639 $38,644,399 $38,871,418 $34,106,424 $19,238,101 NYS Unified Funding: 2007 = 36.7% Capital Projects 2011 = 11.2% Capital Projects Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Pendell Commons Ellenville Senior Housing Woodstock Commons Murphy Manor Apartments $57.5 million local investment 295 Homes Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
Housing Creates Jobs: Architects, engineering, real estate, environmental, legal, building trades, suppliers, lending, property management and maintenance Local shops, pharmacies, restaurants and other service industries Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson on Valley
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