Transit Ri Ridership Trends and Reasons Monday, August 12, 2019 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transit Ri Ridership Trends and Reasons Monday, August 12, 2019 Steven E. Polzin, PhD . Senior Advisor for Research and Technology Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

Outline  Transit in August 2019  Underlying trends driving demand  Why Ridership matters and what do we do? 2

What is Happening? 2015-2017 2012-2014 Transit ridership loss accelerates in 3-year decline Transit ridership near 60 year high Growth and migration resume historic patterns Millennials are different VMT and VMT/Capita returned to growth We passed peak VMT Millennials buy cars and move to suburbs We are urbanizing and CBD’s are thriving System conditions, reliability, health care 2018  costs, etc. plague transit operators Developers embrace transit ? How much will that subway cost? When will Hawaii's rail system open? How is that Strong referendum Waymo to Buy new streetcar doing? success Up to 62,000 Chrysler TNC’s address first- TNC’s can Why do we need Minivans for cannibalize transit mile/last-mile issue transit with CAV? Ride-Hailing ridership Service. NYT, May 31, 2018 3

Governing It's Been a Rough Year for Mass Transit With falling ridership and scrapped expansion projects, urban transit faces an uncertain future. June 2019 Commentary By Alan Ehrenhalt | Senior Editor

National Transit Ridership Trend Transit Ridership, Billions per Year 12.5 17.5 22.5 2.5 7.5 10 15 20 25 0 5 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 Ridership (Billions) 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 Ridership per Capita 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Ridership per Capita, Trips per Year

Trends in Ridership and Service 105% National Ridership Relative to 1970 90% National Vehicle Miles of Services Relative to 1970 75% Percent Change relative to 1970 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% -15% -30% 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

U.S. Transit Ridership Trend, Rolling 12- Month Count 10,800,000 2014 10,600,000 Approximate 8% 2015 decline in four 10,400,000 years Thousands 2016 10,200,000 Losing over a half 2017 million trips per 10,000,000 day for the past 4 2018 9,800,000 years 9,600,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 9,400,000 9,200,000 Source: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/osea/seasonaladjustment/?Page Var=TRANSIT

HART Transit Ridership Trend, Rolling 12-Month Count 16,500,000 16,000,000 2015 Approximate %17 15,500,000 2016 decline in three years 2014 15,000,000 Losing 2,500 trips per 14,500,000 day for the past 4 years 2017 14,000,000 13,500,000 13,000,000 2018 12,500,000 12,000,000 Source: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/osea/seasonaladjustment/?Pa 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 geVar=TRANSIT

HART Monthly Ridership Trends 1,600,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000

U.S. Context and Travel Trends 2 0 1 5 vs 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 vs 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 7 vs 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 YTD vs 2 0 1 7 Months Source U.S. Population 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 12 Census Total Em ploym ent 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 12 BLS Real GDP 2.9% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 12 BEA Gas Price -29.3% -14.8% 15.1% 11.3% 12 EIA Registered Cars and Hedges 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 12 Light Trucks Co. Light Vehicle Sales 5.8% 0.1% -1.8% 0.8% 12 BEA Count of Zero- - -1.0% -1.9% -0.7% - Census Vehicle households VMT 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 12 FHWA Public Transit APTA and -1 .4 % to -2 .2 % -2 .1 % to -1 .8 % -2 .7 % to -2 .5 % -1 .9 5 % to -1 .9 7 % 12 Ridership NTD Am trak Ridership -0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 12 Amtrak ( FY) USDOT, Airline Passengers 5.3% 3.9% 3.5% 4.8% 12 BTS

Top 40 UZAs by 2018 Transit Ridership, Change 2014-2018 (Millions) And we don’t even have automated Seattle +19.081, vehicles yet! +9.2% • Portland -4.057, -3.5% • Boston -47.218, -11.2% Minneapolis -4.844, -4.9% Buffalo Providence Cleveland -2.443, -9.3% -3.242, - -14.105, - • 15.4% Milwaukee 28.2% Salt Lake City Detroit • Hartford -10.657, - -2.103, -4.5% -1.543, -4.0% • • • -0.002, -0.0% 24.7% • • • • New York City • San • -187.676, -4.3% • Denver • Sacramento Chicago Francisco Columbus • +0.402, • -7.154, - -57.212, - • -14.461, - Philadelphia -0.138, -0.7% • +0.4% • • 23.3% 9.0% 3.1% -38.454, -10.5% • • Pittsburgh Las Vegas Baltimore San Jose • -0.925, -1.4% Riverside -2.595, -3.8% Cincinnati -18.991, -16.2% -7.780, - -5.188, - St. Louis -2.759, - 17.3% Washington 20.7% -11.618, -22.9% 13.1% • D.C Los Angeles • • • -66.127, -14.0% -125.727, -18.7% Dallas Phoenix Charlotte -9.910, - • -5.608, -7.5% • -6.147, - • 12.2% Atlanta 21.5% San Diego -17.606, - -13.032, -11.7% • 12.6% Austin -4.257, - 12.5% • Orlando • -4.802, - • Honolulu • • 15.6% Tampa • -4.885, -7.1% New Orleans San Antonio -6.016, - -1.430, -6.2% -4.223, -9.8% Houston • 19.1% Miami +4.065, -43.622, -25.8% +4.7% • Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database (May 2019)

Top 10 Agencies in Florida by 2018 Transit Ridership, Change 2014-2018 (Millions) Jacksonville Transportation Authority -0.876, -6.86% City of Tallahassee Gainesville RTS -1.230, -28.65% -1.466, -13.51% Central FL RTA -5.300, -17.60% Hillsborough Area Rapid Transit -3.435, -21.97% Top 10 agencies make up 92.6% Pinellas Suncoast of Florida PalmTran Transportation -2.099, -17.15% ridership from Authority -2.684, -18.36% 2014-2018 Broward County Transit -10.551, -27.18% South Florida RTA Miami-Dade -0.076, -1.39% Transit -28.737, -26.20% Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database

Hey Watson, Have we found the bottom yet?

Commuting Share 2017, Change from 2013  8.6% of US HH have zero SOV/SUV Crush Competition vehicles, down 0.5% since 2013 (about 5.9% of population)  5.0% of US HH with workers have no cars  In August 2018, < 30% of new vehicles were autos, (WSJ) Sources: ACS, WSJ

What Impacts Ridership? Demographic, Economic and Land Use Factors Demand Factor Transit Service Characteristics Travel Supply Factor Behavior Travel and Communications Options Transit Supply Factor Ridership

What Underlies the Ridership Trends? Telecommuting/e- Bikeshare, System Transportation carshare commerce, etc. safety/reliability network companies (Uber, Personal Lyft) safety/cleanliness Migration Gas prices trends/gentrification Service supply Fares Aging Weather Parking cost Commuter benefits Increased auto program changes availability Enhanced traveler expectations

Zero-Vehicle Households are Declining U.S. Household Vehicle Availability 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 No vehicles 8.9% 8.8% 8.7% 8.8% 8.9% 9.1% 9.3% 9.2% 9.1% 9.1% 8.9% 8.7% 8.6% available US No vehicles 6.6% 6.6% 6.2% 6.6% 6.6% 7.0% 7.3% 7.4% 7.2% 6.9% 6.8% 6.6% 6.3% available FL  Nearly half of all transit trips are made by residents of zero- vehicle households – 44.6% in 2001 NHTS, 48.1% in 2009 NHTS, 43.0% ? income in 2017 NHTS  We do not know what share of zero-vehicle households are choice ? 8.6% US, zero-vehicle by choice, law, physical/medical condition, or 6.3% FL legal ? income  The share of zero-vehicle households ranges from 4% in Utah ? medical to 12.6% in Massachusetts then 29% in New York and 37.3% in DC

Per Capita Annual Transit Trips by Household Vehicle Availability 250 Annual Transit Trips per Capita 200 150 100 50 10 11 229 227 38 40 0 0-vehicles 1-vehicle 2+ vehicles 2009 NHTS 2017 NHTS

Possible Impact of Reduced Trip Making 4.3 4.1 3.8 0.0 Daily Trip Rate If declining trip making occurred proportionally for 3.8 transit Estimate 3.4 • Person trip rate declining .05 trips/day/per year 1.07 • 21.5 million Floridians over 5 1.09 Other If 1% were transit trips • 1.01 1.04 0.38 Social and 0.87 Over 3 years this would be ≈ 15,000,000 reduction in 0.4 0.35 Recreational 0.36 transit trips/year School/Church 0.37 Approximately 40% of the decline in transit use 1.97 Shopping and 1.79 1.71 1.61 Errands 1.3 To or From Work 0.76 0.65 0.62 0.59 0.59 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017 Source: Nancy McGuckin analysis of NHTS data

2017 ACS Commuting Mode Share by Income and Transit Sub Mode 8% Bus or trolley bus 7% 6% Commuter Mode Share Streetcar or trolley car 5% 4% Subway or elevated 3% 2% Railroad 1% 0% Ferryboat Total Public Transit Annual Household Income

Travel and Transit Use by Age 5 4 Daily Trips per Person 3 2009 2017 2 1 0 5-15 16-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66-75 76+ Age Group 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Transit Mode Share 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 2009 2017 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 5-15 16-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66-75 76+ Age Group