Towards Long-Term Emission Reduction Targets in International - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Policy perspective: Towards Long-Term Emission Reduction Targets in International Climate Policy Tokyo, 24th March 2005 Martin Weiß Federal Environment Agency, Germany

Various Environmental Perspectives Effectiveness / social principles Top down Adequacy Political Realism Bottom up 2 0 1 2 + Acceptance Technology Bottom up and Top Down Technical Feasibility

Various Global/ Regional Perspectives Impacts Temperature Target Global Emission Profile Differentiation/ Fairness 2 0 1 2 + Multistage Triptych 6.0 What technologies when? What cost for whom?

Why set a long term goal? • Long timescales of impacts vs. Inertia and lock-in: � Long term vision necessary to guide investment and technical change „Give us a date, tell us how much we need to cut, give us the flexibility to meet the goals, and we‘ll get it done.“ Wayne H. Brunetti, CEO and Chairman of Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL), US. • Dangerous Changes is value judgement but for many the „danger zone“ starts at 1°C: � Urgent action needed to hedge against future damages

Ethics ... • respect for the life, health, personal identity, self- esteem, pursuit of happiness and • property of other persons (Kant: „perfect duties“) • respect for human rights („right based morality“) • not to cause damages ( neminem-laede principle) • equal respect and equal consideration for all being affected • obligations to give aid in cases of emergency

... and Impacts • Many severe impacts already between 1°C and 2°C • Thresholds for large scale irreversible changes around 2°C

... and Impacts (ii) Impacts on Ecosystems (Hare 2003)

Source: Meinshausen 2 0 0 5 EU: 2°C temperature limit

Emission pathways (i) 15 120% 14 100% 13 12 80% 11 60% 10 +50% 550ppm Change to 1990 +45% 40% 9 +30% 8 20% GtC +10% 7 450ppm 0% 6 -20% 5 -25% 4 -40% 400/350ppm 3 -60% -60% 2 -80% 1 0 -100% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Meinshausen 2 0 0 5 CO 2 only, Source: Ecofys 2 0 0 5

Emissions pathways (ii) • below 450e ppmv needed for 66% + confidence („Overshooting“ likely) • Global Emissions have to peak and decline before 2020 • Reduce below 50% of 1990 emissions by 2050 • Adaptation needs linked to long term mitigation

Multistage - Promising box • Staged broadening of participation • Threshold criteria to reflect different responsibilities/ capabilities • Flexible: Different modes of participation in different stages • Delayed participation and flexibility vs. Environmental integrity

Multistage 550 ppm 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Annex I 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.7 Rest of Eastern Europe 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.7 Argentina 2.8 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.7 Brazil 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.8 Mexico 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.8 4.2 Venezuela 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.7 Rest of Latin America 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.9 Egypt 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.3 South Africa 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.7 Nigeria 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.8 Rest of North Africa 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.3 Rest of Africa 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 Saudi Arabia 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.7 United Arab Emirates 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.7 Rest of Middle East 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 China 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.2 4.0 India 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 Indonesia 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 South Korea 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.5 Malaysia 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 Philippines 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.0 Singapore 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.7 Thailand 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.3 Rest of Asia 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 2020: 17 Regions < stage 3 2050: 10 Regions < stage 3

Multistage 400 ppm 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Annex I 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Rest of Eastern Europe 2.6 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 Argentina 3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Brazil 3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Mexico 3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Venezuela 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Rest of Latin America 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 Egypt 1.8 2.0 2.7 3.7 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 South Africa 3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Nigeria 1.0 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.0 5.0 Rest of North Africa 2.2 2.7 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 Rest of Africa 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.7 Saudi Arabia 3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 United Arab Emirates 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Rest of Middle East 2.8 3.6 3.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 China 3.0 3.7 3.7 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 India 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.3 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.0 Indonesia 1.0 1.7 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 South Korea 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Malaysia 3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Philippines 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.7 3.8 4.3 Singapore 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Thailand 3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Rest of Asia 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 2020: 8 Regions < stage 3 2050: 4 Regions < stage 3

Multistage results Multistage 2020 Multistage 2020 60% 400 300% 400 450 450 550 40% 250% 550 Reference Reference 200% 20% 150% 0% 100% -20% 50% -40% 0% -60% -50% R+EEU GER JPN EU25 FRA UK RAI REEU USA ME AFR CPAsia LAM EAsia SAsia 35% to 55% reduction by 2020 400 Multistage 2050 Multistage 2050 1000% 450 60% 80% to 90% reduction by 2050 550 900% 400 40% Reference 450 800% 550 20% 700% Reference 600% 0% 500% -20% 400% -40% 300% 200% -60% 100% -80% 0% -100% -100% R+EEU GER JPN EU25 REEU FRA UK RAI USA ME CPAsia LAM AFR EAsia SAsia

New Triptych 6.0 • Phylipsen, D., N. Höhne, R. Janzic, 2004: Implementing Triptych 6.0 – technical report, Ecofys, Utrecht, The Netherlands. • UBA-Report: Climate Change 02/ 2005 • Co-funded by RIVM, Michel den Elzen (RIVM)

Global sectoral emissions Land use change 9% Industry 17% Waste 3% Agriculture 15% Fossil fuel Electricity 25% production 5% Domestic 26% Sectors as in Triptych 6.0

Sectoral GHG emissions

Triptych 6.0

Triptych parameters 400 450 550 Sector Quantity ppmv ppmv ppmv Electricity Share of renewables and emission free fossil in 2050 70% 60% 40% Share of CHP in 2050 10% 35% 20% Reduction of solid fuels in 2050 compared to base year 80% 75% 40% Industry Structural change factor 0.3 0.3 0.7 Convergence of Energy Efficiency Indicator in 2050 0.4 0.5 0.8 Domestic Domestic convergence level - per capita emissions in 0.4 0.7 1.3 sector tCO 2 /cap/yr in 2050 Fossil fuel Fossil fuel emission level – % total emissions below 95% 90% 95% production base year in 2050 Agriculture Reduction below reference scenario emissions in 2050 70% 50% 20% – low GDP/cap Reduction below reference scenario emissions in 2050 90% 70% 40% – high GDP/cap

Triptych results 20% to 40% reduction by 2020 60% to 80% reduction by 2050

Comparison of results 400 ppmv 2020 400 ppmv 2020 C&C C&C 300% 50% CDC CDC Mutistage Mutistage Triptych Triptych 250% 30% Reference Reference 200% 10% 150% -10% 100% -30% 50% -50% 0% -50% -70% REEU ME AFR CPAsia R+EEU LAM EAsia GER JPN SAsia EU25 FRA UK USA RAI 400 ppmv 2050 400 ppmv 2050 C&C 60% 1000% CDC Mutistage 900% C&C 40% Triptych CDC 800% Reference Mutistage Triptych 20% 700% Reference 600% 0% 500% -20% 400% -40% 300% 200% -60% 100% -80% 0% -100% -100% REEU R+EEU ME GER JPN AFR CPAsia EU25 FRA UK LAM EAsia USA RAI SAsia

Conclusion (I) • Developed Countries: Long term target of 80% -90% seems appropriate • At least 30% reduction by 2020 required • In general: Results depend more on stabilisation level than on burden sharing approach • Little flexibility to let the US “off the hook” in low stabilisation scenarios

Conclusion (II) Necessary emission reductions across different burden sharing approaches 2020 2050 400 Global* +10% -60% ppmv Annex I -25% to -50% -80% to -90% CO 2 Non-Annex I Substantial deviation from Substantial deviation from reference in Latin reference in all regions America, Middle East, East Asia and Centrally planned Asia 450 Global* +30% -25% ppmv Annex I -10% to -30% -70% to -90% CO 2 Non-Annex I Deviation from reference Substantial deviation from in Latin America, Middle reference in all regions East, East Asia and Centrally Planned Asia

Conclusion (III) • Germany: 40% in 2020 and 80% in 2050 supporting earlier figures • Japan: 30-35% in 2020 and 80% in 2050 can be justified • German proposal: 40% reduction, conditional on EU 30% reduction by 2020 consistent with results