Title of the Presentation Trends in Emissions from Energy Sector Date: September 28, 2017 Venue: New Delhi Date Venue
Sectoral Break-up & Approach National GHG • Key Sub-sectors in ENERGY Inventory • Electricity Generation Transport • Fuel Fugitive • Other sectors Combustion Emissions from Fugitive Emissions from Fuel Production • fuels • Tier 1: Default (Fuel based) Electricity Transport Other Sectors Generation Quantity of fuel • Solid Fuels • Global Average emission factors • Emissions from combustion Utilities Road Residential • Tier 2: Country – Specific (Fuel Based) Oil and Natural Gas • Quantity of fuel Country – specific emission factors • Non-Utilities Rail Commercial • Emissions from combustion • GHGs accounted for: Agriculture and Aviation • Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Fishing Methane (CH 4 ) • • Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) Navigation
Methodology The basic equation used in for calculating the GHG emission is: Emissions Gas = ∑ Category Activity data (AD) * Emission Factor (EF) Gas For example CO 2 emissions are estimated as: CO 2 Emissions = Fuel consumption * Net Calorific Value * CO 2 emission factor • Activity data sourced from various Ministry reports • Emission Factors are default factors from IPCC guidelines and country-specific estimates. • Other data sets include: Fuel calorific values and liquid and gaseous fuels, density assumptions
Trends in Energy Emissions 1800 1533 1600 1400 1200 CAGR 964 ENERGY: 5.96% 1000 MtCO 2 e Electricity Gen: 6.58% 800 Transport: 6.96% 600 Others: 2.18% 400 Fugitive Emissions: 1.05% 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Electricity Generation Transport Others Fugitive
Fuel Use Sector wise emissions based on fuel type 100% • Solid Fuels 90% Electricity Generation – 95.61% • 80% • Transport – 0.001% 70% • Others – 23.98% 60% Fuel Production – 53.42% • 50% • Liquid Fuels 40% Electricity Generation – 1.14% • 30% • Transport – 90.39% • Others – 44.21% 20% • Fuel Production – 0.79% 10% • Gaseous Fuels 0% Electricity Generation – 3.25% • 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 • Transport – 9.60% Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Gaseous Fuels Others – 31.80% • • Fuel Production – 45.79%
Electricity Generation 1200 CAGR Electricity Gen: 6.58% 1000 PEG: 6.2% Captive: 9.1% 800 MtCO 2 e 600 400 200 Sub sector States Public Electricity Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, 0 Generation Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra West Bengal Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Tamil Nadu Odisha Rajasthan Captive Power Plants Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Odisha, Karnataka Haryana Rest of India Uttar Pradesh 12 states contributed to 90% of the emissions from PEG in 2013
Transport 250 CAGR Transport: 6.96% Road: 9.23% 200 Railways: 4.63% Aviation: 7.46% 150 Navigation: 1.24% MtCO 2 e 100 50 Sub sector States Road Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Railways Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Aviation Delhi, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu Gujarat Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh Haryana Delhi Kerala Rest of India Navigation Maharashtra, Kerala, Gujarat Modal Share in 2013: Road (87%), Railways (4%), Aviation (8%) and Navigation (1%)
Residential, Commercial, Fisheries & Agriculture 160 CAGR 140 Other: 2.18% 120 Residential: 1% Commercial: 9% 100 Agriculture:8% MtCO 2 e 80 Fisheries:5% 60 40 Sub sector States 20 Residential West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra 0 Commercial Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Agriculture Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Maharashtra Gujarat Tamil Nadu Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Bihar Madhya Pradesh Fisheries Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu Punjab Haryana Kerala Rest of india Share in 2013: Residential (73%), Commercial (6%), Agriculture (18%) and Fisheries (3%)
Fugitive Emissions from Fuel Production 50 CAGR 45 Fugitive Emissions: 1.05% 40 Coal: 0.53% 35 Oil: 2.63% 30 Natural Gas: 2.64% MtCO 2 e 25 20 15 10 Sub sector States 5 0 Coal Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jharkhand Oil Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Chhattisgarh Jharkhand Odisha Madhya Pradesh Rest of India Natural Gas Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Assam
Comparison with Official Inventory Deviations Emissions INCCA - Fiscal Year to Calendar Year CSTEP 2007 % Deviation BUR 2010 CSTEP 2010 % Deviation (MtCO 2 e) 2007 - Data Gaps in Activity data - Inclusion of DG sets Electricity 719 758 5% 820 913 11% - Inclusion of Captive Power Generation Generation Transport 142 138 -3% 188 190 1% - Rounding off Error Others 173 131 -24% 92 138 50% - Lack of disaggregated data based on coal mining Fugitive 32 36 13% 49 47 -4% TOTAL 1066 1063 -0.28% 1149 1288 12%
Assumptions • Electricity Generation • Data for the Financial Year (FY) 2011-12 interpolated • Heat rates in captive plants taken to be 5% higher than utilities for each fuel type • Fuel properties for HHS not available, properties for LSHS used • Transport • Petrol & Diesel demand from PPAC • Average zone share for HSDO consumption in road for select states • Linear Interpolation for missing years • Others • Linear interpolation applied to calculate the number of Diesel Generator (DG) sets and fuel consumed in DG sets • DG sets of capacities <75 kW in residential sector • DG sets of capacities between 75 to 800 kW in commercial sector • Fugitive Emissions • Degree of Gassiness in UG Mines (Deg I, II and III at 33.33%) • Proxy variable’s Performance applied to relevant variables • Leakage rate assumed as 1.65% of NG production
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