Wood Pellet Fuel A Low Carbon Replacement for Fossil Fuels in the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Wood Pellet Fuel A Low Carbon Replacement for Fossil Fuels in the Power and Heating Sectors (with the necessary condition that the feedstock is sustainably sourced) William Strauss, PhD November 4, 2019 Modern Wood Heat Symposium

Senior Members of the FutureMetrics Team Annette Bossler, Laurenz Schmidt, Yoshinobu Kusano, John Swaan, Dr. William Strauss, Market Intelligence Expert Technology Specialist Japan Policy Advisor Pellet Plant Operations President Annette provides detailed Laurenz is a globally Yoshi is one of the most John is a leading expert on Named one of the most market intelligence on respected expert in highly respected pellet plant operations. He is influential leaders in the renewable energy policies thermodynamics and mass participants in the the founder of Pacific biomass sector in 2016 and around the world with a and energy flow dynamics Japanese biomass sector. BioEnergy and producer of the 2017 by Argus Media. strong focus on in the renewable energy He was a key member of first bulk shipment of wood Recipient of the 2012 Japan. Annette speaks, sector. He reviews and Sumitomo’s pellet trading pellets from North America to International Excellence in reads, and writes fluent analyzes all advanced operations. He provides Europe (1998). Recipient of Bioenergy Award. Japanese. She was the 2013 pellet technologies. valued insights into the 2014 International A leader in the industry for recipient of the President’s Japanese policy Founders Award. more than two decades. Award from the Maine developments. International Trade Center.

The reason that we care about CO 2 emissions

If the trend in the chart below is followed, we will release most of the geologic carbon sequestered over hundreds of millions of years over a span of about 250 years. Curve is from a simulation by FutureMetrics  250 Years ➔

Two Major Sectors in the Wood Pellet Industry: Heating Power (industrial)

The heating markets, in most jurisdictions (not the US), are helped by carbon taxes on heating oil. The taxes are explicitly aimed at lowering the use of fossil fuels. Pellets are not subject to a carbon tax. The implication is that pellets are a low carbon solution.

After 2020, under current policy , growth in Europe and UK is almost over. Japan and South Korea are the major new growth markets.

The industrial wood pellet sector is supported by various policies to compensate the power generators for the higher cost of pellet fuel versus coal. The policies are based on a strategy to lower carbon emissions from the power sector. In order to receive the support, the utility has to prove that the pellet fuel lowers carbon emissions. This is done through independent third-party certification schemes that prove that the sources of feedstock for making the pellets are sustainable. (For example: FSC, SFI, PEFC, SBP) That is, the annual supply of pellet feedstock cannot lower the forest’s inventory across the landscape and therefore cannot lower the stock of carbon held by the forested lands.

Unlike geologic carbon (hydrocarbon), forest carbon (carbohydrate) is continuously recycled. As long as the harvest rate does not exceed the growth rate over the managed landscape, the atmosphere does not experience a net increase in CO2 concentration from use of pellets. Biogenic carbon Biogenic carbon released during energy generation contained in recaptured in new forest biomass released to growth on forest atmosphere. landscape. Geologic carbon released across the supply chain. Diagram courtesy of Jennifer Jenkins, Chief Sustainability Officer, Enviva

It is a continuous and dynamic process across the managed landscape Absolute necessary condition: Must be equal to or less than want is sequestered.

Only the supply chain carbon footprint is accounted for when the power station switching from coal to pellets shows its net reduction in CO 2 emissions. TOTAL EMISSIONS BY FUEL WOOD PELLET EMISSIONS BREAKDOWN 120 900 800 100 700 80 600 kg CO2e/ MWhe kg CO2e/ MWhe 500 60 400 40 300 UK 2020 Electricity 200 Emissions Threshold 20 100 - 0 Production Transport by Sea Courtesy of Jennifer Wood Pellet Coal Transport of Feedstock Harvesting and Chipping Jenkins, Chief Supply Chain Transport to Port Tansport to Power Plant Sustainability Officer, 87% Total CO 2 Emission Reduction Storage and Handling Crop Production Enviva Source: supply chain carbon analysis for pellets produced at Enviva Pellets Sampson and shipped to Drax’s 38% efficiency bioe lectricity plant in Selby, UK using the current UK biomass carbon accounting methodology, and Weiwei Wang 2015 Environmental Research Letters report

Assuming pellets are sourced from managed forests that satisfy the “necessary condition” heating pellets provide a significant reduction in CO 2 emissions.

The notion of carbon debt is an artifact of assumptions about spatial scale and when to start the clock. Looking at one plot or even one tree is a flawed basis for modeling. Starting the carbon accounting at the moment of harvest and replanting is a flawed basis for modeling.

[From a 2013 paper by FutureMetrics that references the Manomet Study] A serious flaw in research that shows that carbon emissions for wood combustion add to the stock of atmospheric carbon is the timing of their carbon-cycle assumptions. Many models begin the story at the moment the wood is harvested. Most of the studies that show that wood-to-energy adds to the carbon stock of the atmosphere assume a carbon debt is created that has to be repaid by new growth over decades. The chart on the next slide shows the carbon-cycle for one plot (or even one tree). Note that the net carbon stock of the atmosphere is reduced over those thirty years as the new growth absorbs carbon. If every ton from that plot is combusted (highly unlikely!), all of that carbon is returned to the atmosphere, but the net outcome will never be higher than the baseline.

Finally, just from the point of view of a viable business model: Who would build a new pulp mill or pellet mill for hundreds of millions of dollars with the intention of running out of feedstock in a few years? Or with the intention of the feedstock becoming more expensive every year as it becomes more scarce? Major capital investments require continuous long-term operations with stable costs. That means sizing the plant so that its demand for wood does not exceed the sustainable supply and therefore the plant can receive wood every day of the year for decades at costs that allow profitable operations.

In summary Wood pellets sourced from forests that are not being depleted in terms of the net stock of wood (and thus carbon) held in the managed landscape should be a key part of any decarbonization strategy for both the heating and power sectors.

Thank you William Strauss WilliamStrauss@FutureMetrics.com  Bill inspecting the BC forest to verify sustainable management practices.