The Statistical Implications of Economic Globalisation Presenting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 24, 2022 •289 likes •584 views

The Statistical Implications of Economic Globalisation Presenting the effects of economic globalisation to the public: what and how? DGINS, October 09-10, 2019, Bratislava, Vladimir Vano ECB: Unprecedented Times Key Interest rates vs. Consumer

The Statistical Implications of Economic Globalisation Presenting the effects of economic globalisation to the public: what and how? DGINS, October 09-10, 2019, Bratislava, Vladimir Vano
ECB: Unprecedented Times Key Interest rates vs. Consumer Price Inflation
11th Anniversary of Lehman Brothers Aramco Attacks, September 14, 2019
Oil and business cycle Each US Recession was preceded by oil spike
Non-economic risks Trade war has spiked geopolitical risk up to new highs
Monetary policy and price of risk Support to economic growth causes subdued risk spreads
Trade WAR: US- China…
Trade WAR: US- China…
Recession Probability Highest since 2009 as per NY Fed Model
EUropean Locomotive Recession of German Industry
German Locomotive Growth Outlook for Next Year
What recession risk: US Consumer Confidence
US Forward-looking Indicators PMI - Purchasing Managers Index
Forward-looking Indicators GER PMI
Mortgage loans risk The first annual growth of defaulted mortgages since 2009
Slowdown in China The slowest growth of Chinese industry since 2002
Chinese Trade War
Chinese Trade War and Wall Street
End of Free Trade?
War or Reelection? Trade war is increasing risk of recession before 2020 elections
Impeachment a trhy Obchodná vojna zvyšuje riziko recesie pred voľbami 2020
Loan defaults and unemployment The credit cycle is leading the economic cycle. It takes one to 5yrs from from the moment the credit cycle turns until the labor market tilts.
Stock Markets Performance during Recessions
Inverse Yield Curve
Inverse Yield Curve Drop of Long-term Interest Rates below Short-Term Interest Rates
Inverzná výnosová krivka Drop of Long-term Interest Rates below Short-Term Interest Rates
Long-term Development Cycles in Economy and in Markets
Dlhodobý vývoj trhov

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