The Role of Coal in the West Western Interstate Energy Board - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Role of Coal in the West Western Interstate Energy Board Benjamin Lim and Max Vilgalys 1

EIA Baseload Definitions § Base load: The minimum amount of electric power delivered or required over a given period of time at a steady rate. § Base load capacity: The generating equipment normally operated to serve loads on an around-the-clock basis. § Base load plant: A plant […] which is normally operated to take all or part of the minimum load of a system, and which consequently produces electricity at an essentially constant rate and runs continuously. 2

For the Purposes of the Presentation § Base load plant: A plant […] which is normally operated to take all or part of the minimum load of a system, and which consequently produces electricity at an essentially constant rate and runs continuously. 3

Baseload Generation is not a requirement § Coal and nuclear resources are designed for § A portion of a resource fleet that provides low cost O&M and continuous operation reliability services is necessary § Baseload resources have low forced and § Having more baseload generation makes maintenance outage hours system planning easier, but does not § Low exposure to fuel supply chain issues necessarily result in a more reliable or lower- cost portfolio 4

What is the CEM Database? § C ontinuous E missions M onitoring D ata § EPA collects data from generators § Includes hourly data for Heat Input, Generated Load, Emissions, etc. § 96 Coal Units, 544 NG Units § 13,315,200 rows of data for Coal 96 units x 365 days x 24 hours a day x 16 years § Compiled using Python and parsed with SQL 5

Emissions in CO 2 equivalents GHG Emission (CO2e) by Fuel Type in States of West 2016 6.00E+07 5.00E+07 4.00E+07 Tons of CO2e 3.00E+07 2.00E+07 1.00E+07 0.00E+00 Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG AZ AZ CA CA CO CO ID ID MT MT NM NM NV NV OR OR TX TX UT UT WA WA WY WY Fuel Type for Each State in Western Interconnection 6

How It Breaks Up in the West COAL HEAT INPUT DISTRIBUTION IN NATURAL GAS HEAT INPUT THE WEST DISTRIBUTION IN THE WEST TX 0% 0% OR 0% 2% AZ AZ 8% WY 19% 19% 24% NV 14% WA NM 3% CO 6% 18% UT CO 14% OR MT 7% CA MT 1% ID 0% 42% 9% NM 2% NV 11% 1% 7

Heat Input and Generation at Bridger Coal Plant in 2016 Total Heat Input (mmBtu) at Bridger Coal Plant Total Generation (MWh) at Bridger Coal Plant 25000 2500 20000 2000 Heat Input (mmBtu) Generation (MWh) 15000 1500 10000 1000 5000 500 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 Month Month Heat Input BW71 (mmBtu) Heat Input BW72 (mmBtu) Generated Load BW71 (MWh) Generated Load BW72 (MWh) Heat Input BW73 (mmBtu) Heat Input BW74 (mmBtu) Generated Load BW73 (MWh) Generated Load BW74 (MWh) 8

Estimated Capacity Factors for EGU’s at Bridger in 2016 Based on Generation Capacity Factor of Unit BW71 Capacity Factor of Unit BW72 1.2 1.2 1 1 Capacity Factor Capacity Factor 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Month Month Capacity Factor of Unit BW73 Capacity Factor of Unit BW74 1.2 1.2 1 1 Capacity Factor Capacity Factor 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Month Month 9

Estimation of Data Driven Capacity Factor Max Max Heat Nameplate § Underlying Assumptions: ORISPL Generation Input Capacity Plant Name CODE Unit # (MW) (mmBtu) Fuel Type (MW) Jim Bridger 8066 BW71 581 7096.6 Coal 535 $%&'() $*+, -./&, Jim Bridger 8066 BW72 585 7276.1 Coal 527 § !" ≈ 0+123&3 $*+, -./&, 4'%3 566785679 Jim Bridger 8066 BW73 570 7402.2 Coal 527 Jim Bridger 8066 BW74 580 6776.3 Coal 530 § Likewise for generated load § Maximum heat input or generated load over the Estimated CF of Bridger Unit 4 Based on Estimated CF of Bridger Unit 4 Based on Heat Input Generation 16 year period can exceed the nameplate capacity 1 1 § Capacity factor values and trends derived from 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 heat input or generated load are relatable Capacity Factor Capacity Factor 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Month Month 10

All coal fired power is solely used for baseload power and is consistently running at max capacity. 11

All coal fired power is solely sometimes used for baseload power and is consistently running at max a variable capacity factor. 12

The Changing Grid – 2001 vs 2016 Average Hourly Generation at Centralia Coal Plant - Average Hourly Generation at Centralia Coal Plant - November 2001 November 2016 1600 1600 1400 1400 1200 1200 Generation (MWh) Generation (MWh) 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Operating Hour Operating Hour Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 1 Unit 2 13

Duck Curve Development Centralia, WA Coal Plant, Novembers 2001-2016 1600 1400 2001 Generation 2005 Generation 1200 2010 Generation Generation (MWh) 1000 2014 Generation 800 2015 Generation 600 2016 Generation 400 200 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Operating Hour 14

Other Major Coal Plants Average Hourly Generation at Colstrip Coal Plant - Average Hourly Generation at Intermountain Coal Plant March 2016 - December 2016 2000 2000 1800 1800 1600 1600 1400 1400 Generation (MWh) Generation (MWh) 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Operating Hour Operating Hour Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Unit 4 Unit 1 Unit 2 15

Systematic Analysis § Clustering – Unsupervised Learning Algorithm § Over 500,000 unit-days in the database 95 units x 365 days x 16 years § Logic/algorithm is a filter for bias and is the basis of fairness 16

Sorting Unit-Days Into Generation Profiles Actual Generation Profile of Generation How many flexible How many generation days? baseload days? 17

How It Works: Clustering 18

20 Distinct Generation Profiles 19

Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants - 2001 52% of the Unit-Days were baseload generation 2001 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS 6% 4% 9% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0 % 52% 8% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 20

Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants - 2006 Over 5 years, coal continued to operated largely as baseload 2006 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS 6% 4% 3% 2% 11% 4% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0 52% 7% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0 21

Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants - 2011 In the next 5 years, baseload generation nearly halved for coal 2011 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS 6% 5% 8% 14% 3% 3% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 27% 11% 7% 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0 22

Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants - 2016 In the last 15 years, coal unit operation has shifted dramatically 2016 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS 5% 5% 6% 7% 5% 3% 2% 4% 1% 1% 0 0% 22% 21% 6% 5% 4% 2% 1% 23

Recap of Aggregate Results § Baseload operation days for coal decreased from 52% in 2001 to 22% in 2016 § Offline days for units increased from 9% in 2001 to 21% in 2016 24

How Have Individual Units Changed? § We have a measure of aggregate changes in the fleet § We want to examine information about individual units § Are all units changing, or just a few? § When did most units shift from baseload operation? § What factors could have influenced this shift? 25

How many units spend less than 10% of their days in baseload operation? Number of Units Spending 0%-10% of their days in Baseload Operation, 2001-2016 100 90 80 70 Number of Units 60 50 0% - 10% 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year 26

How many units spend less than 20% of their days in baseload operation? Number of Units Spending 0%-20% of their days in Baseload Operation, 2001-2016 100 90 80 70 Number of Units 60 50 10%-20% 0% - 10% 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year 27

Since 2011, the majority of coal units spent less than 30% of their days in baseload operation. Number of Units Spending 0%-30% of their days in Baseload Operation, 2001-2016 100 90 80 70 Number of Units 60 50 20%-30% 10%-20% 40 0% - 10% 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year 28

In 2016, 73 out of 84 coal units spent less than 50% of days in baseload operation Number of Units Spending 0%-50% of their days in Baseload Operation, 2001-2016 100 90 80 70 Number of Units 60 40%-50% 50 30%-40% 20%-30% 40 10%-20% 0% - 10% 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Years 29