The Future of Work Caribbean Future of Work Forum, Kingston, Jamaica Wednesday 22 February, 2017 José M. Salazar-Xirinachs Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean
THE FUTURE OF WORK is influenced by four main groups of drivers • - Longevity • - Internet - Cloud technology - Youth explosion - Big data - Internet of things - Greater human - Automation diversity, migration - Robotics - Additive manufacturing, 3D - Gender parity I - Genetics and bioprocesses II II Demographic Technological Technological and population- related IV IV III III Related to Related to Related to Related to models/enterprise models/enterprise productive productive strategies and strategies and development development forms of forms of • Economic cycle - •- New business models (or under- (or under- contracting contracting “deceleration” - On-line platforms: e-Bay development) development) - Gig economy - crowdwork • Large productivity gap - Work-on-Demand - Global supply chains • How to achieve greater - Outsourcing productive diversification / economic complexity - Consumer awareness about : privacy, health, diet, environment, ethics.
FUTURE OF WORK Drivers of change in the world of work • - Internet • - Cloud technology • - Longevity • - Big data • - Internet of things • - Youth explosion • - Automation of knowledge work • - Robotics • - Greater human • - Additive manufacturing, 3D diversity, migration • - Genetics and bioprocesses • - Gender parity I II II Demographic and population- related Technological Technological III III IV IV Related to Related to Enterprise Enterprise models and models and productive productive New business models forms of forms of development development • Economic cycle - •- On-line platforms: e-Bay contracting contracting “deceleration” (or under- (or under- •- Gig economy - crowdwork development) development) •- Work-on-Demand • Large productivity gap •- Global supply chains •- Outsourcing • How to achieve greater productive diversification / • Consumer awareness about: economic complexity •privacy, health, diet, environment, ethics
Impacts: opportunities and risks of the Technological Revolutions 1) Disruption: impact on employment: Dynamic of job destruction and creation – “technological unemployment” because of digital economy, automation • Pessimistic outlook: – Machines will massively replace humans in many occupations – McAfee & Brynjolfson, 2014; M. Ford, 2015; Frey & Osborne: 47% of occupations at risk • Optimistic outlook : – There will be replacement, but also complementarity and an increase in human skills – For every ’ordinary’ job lost, three more will be created with the ‘innovation explosion’ - Gil Giardelli, expert on innovation.
Impacts: opportunities and risks of the Technological Revolutions 2) Transformation of occupations: – Demand for new, advanced skills increases (STEM jobs), and – Existing skills become obsolete more quickly 3) Risk of greater inequality: – Highly skilled, “connected” workers win – Those with low skills, who are “disconnected,” lose (Hollowing out - Author). The rapid change in the skills profile for the 4th IR challenges formal education and occupational training systems and puts the focus on a Human Talent Development Agenda .
Impacts depend on degree of prepared- ness (capabilities) at various levels Convergence of New Impact and rate of adoption depend on the degree of Technologies = Industry 4.0 preparedness (capabilities) at various levels: Connectivity Connectivity • Innovation in Products or Services and and Internet of (Supply of the future) Computing Computing Things (IT) Degree of Power Power Prepared- • Individual ness (Operator of the future) Advanced analytics and Data analysis Data analysis Artificial and and • Factory Intelligence Intelligence Intelligence (Factory of the future) (AI) Capability Assessment • Enterprise (Producer of the future) Augmented Human- Human- reality/ virtual machine machine Interface Interface reality/ • Industry (HMI) (HMI) wearables (Value chain economics) Rate of Adoption • Government Digital and Digital and Advanced (Policies for productive development & jobs) Physical Physical robotics Transfor- Transfor- 3D printing mation mation • Global (Global supply chains)
21 st Century skills at individual level Character traits / socio- Basic knowledge: Competencies: emotional skills • Scientific: • Persistence mathematics, • Critical thinking science. • Adaptability • Creativity • Reading • Curiosity • Communica- • ICTs • Initiative tion • Financial • Leadership • Collaboration • Cultural/Civic • Social and cultural awareness The “operator of the future” must have: • Ability to deal with intelligent machines • Ability to adapt, observe, judge and take decisions • Ability to learn to learn and adapt • Innovation is done by people!! • The best jobs demand these skills Qualifications and skills are the key to the Future!
FUTURE OF WORK Drivers of change in the world of work • - Longevity • - Internet - Cloud technology - Youth explosion - Big data - Internet of things - Greater human - Automation diversity, migration - Robotics - Additive manufacturing, 3D I - Gender parity - Genetics and bioprocesses Demographic II II and population- Technological Technological related IV IV III III Enterprise Enterprise models and models and Related to Related to forms of forms of contracting contracting •- productive productive • Economic cycle - • New business models “deceleration” •- On-line platforms: e-Bay development (or development (or •- Gig economy - crowdwork • Large productivity gap •- Work-on-Demand, under- under- •- Global supply chains • How to achieve greater •- Outsourcing development) development) productive diversification / economic complexity •- Consumer awareness about : •Privacy, health, diet, •environment, ethics
How has Productivity performed in Latin America and the Caribbean? From bad to disastrous • The region’s economies have been growing because of raw materials prices and factor accumulation, not because of productivity • Average productivity is 50% of US level. In some countries, it is 30%. Instead of closing, the gap is widening. – “The tragedy of Latin America” - IDB 2010 – “The Achilles’ heel of the region’s economies” - ECLAC– 2016 • Structural transformation has not shifted enough workers from low- productivity sectors to high-productivity sectors (Rodrik & McMillan, 2012). • Exports are concentrated in just a few products. • Large gaps in innovation, education and work force skills. Productivity and productive development are a pending task and a an urgent agenda!
What can be done to speed up productivity growth? • Countries should start new engines for growth. Avenues include: – Quality education and relevant training – Greater formalization of employment and enterprises – More employment in medium and large enterprises and less self-employment and employment in microenterprises – Diversification of production: new sectors – Policies to improve preparedness for adoption and dissemination of new technologies and the 4 th IR – Policies to promote innovation • Major institutional instrument for various of these goals: Cluster development policies with a sectorial and territorial approach.
Cluster and productive development policies • The functions of cluster initiatives are: – To accelerate learning, innovation, adoption of technologies and productivity, through “interactive learning” and “discovery” processes, benefiting from “economies of agglomeration”. – To resolve “coordination failures” and facilitate public- private collaboration. – To organize collective action: Promote the design and implementation of joint projects among enterprises that belong to the cluster and between those enterprises and other members of the cluster network, and make the provision of public inputs specific to the cluster more efficient. – To invest in human talent specific to the cluster, resolve skills-mismatch problems and improve local labour markets.
Questions and Answers • Where will the jobs in the Caribbean come from? – From new engines of growth based on concrete economic activities: • Tourism • Financial services • Creative industries • Agriculture and agribusiness • Green growth: Renewable energy, • Blue • Strong entrepreneurial ecosystems – From formalization and a higher proportion of medium sized enterprises – From Strong Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
Questions and Answers • What are the policies and institutions needed to ensure that innovation and technological change create new and better forms of work? – Policies: Productive Development Policies: • Productive diversification, • Productivity growth, • Export growth, • Investment attraction, • Innovation, • Education and skills. – Institutions: Social dialogue institutions for productive transformation and employment • Productivity and Competitiveness Councils • Skills councils • Dual Education & on the job training institutions
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