The Future of Work in the Caribbean What do we know? What do we - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Future of Work in the Caribbean What do we know? What do we need to know? Godfrey St. Bernard Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Email: godfrey.stbernard@sta.uwi.edu ILO-SALISES Research Consultation Room 2, Institute of Critical Thinking The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad and Tobago Monday 4 th December, 2017

Total Fertility Rates in Selected Countries, 1950-2015 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 Barbados Jamaica Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Belize Guyana St. Bernard, 2015

Median Age of Population in Selected Countries, 1950-2015 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Barbados Jamaica Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Belize Guyana

Census Population by Census Years Selected Caribbean Countries Trinidad and Barbados Belize Guyana Jamaica Saint Lucia Tobago 1943 1,237,063 1946 192,800 59,220 375,701 70,113 563,222 1960 232,327 90,505 560,330 1,609,814 86,108 834,350 1970 236,891 119,934 701,718 1,848,512 100,583 945,210 1980 247,129 145,353 759,567 115,252 1,079,791 1981 1982 2,190,357 1990 260,491 1,213,733 1991 192,877 723,673 2,380,666 135,685 2000 268,792 248,916 1,262,366 2001 2,607,632 2002 751,223 2010 324,528 2011 2,697,983 1,328,019 2012 747,884

Population Sizes in Selected Caribbean Societies, 1950-2015 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Barbados Jamaica Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Belize Guyana

Projected Population Sizes by Variant and Country, 2015-2050 Country Variant 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Barbados Medium 284 288 290 290 290 288 285 282 Low 284 285 284 280 275 269 261 253 Jamaica Medium 2,793 2,840 2,867 2,867 2,846 2,811 2,765 2,710 Low 2,793 2,811 2,793 2,742 2,675 2,591 2,491 2,376 Saint Lucia Medium 185 192 197 202 205 207 208 207 Low 185 190 193 194 193 191 188 184 Trinidad and Tobago Medium 1,360 1,378 1,380 1,373 1,359 1,341 1,319 1,219 Low 1,360 1,365 1,349 1,320 1,284 1,244 1,198 1,145 Belize Medium 359 398 436 472 505 535 563 588 Low 359 394 424 450 473 493 508 519 Guyana Medium 767 787 807 821 826 824 816 806 Low 767 779 787 785 775 756 730 700

Probability of Dying Before the Age of 50 years Having Survived to the Age of 15 years in Selected Countries, 1950- 2015 200.00 180.00 160.00 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 Barbados Jamaica Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Belize Guyana

Net Migration Rates in Selected Countries, 1950- 2015 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 -40.00 Barbados Jamaica Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Belize Guyana

Past and Projected Trends in Population Sizes Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago 1950-2050 3 500 3 000 2 500 15-24 2 000 25-64 65+ 1 500 Jamaica 1 000 500 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1 600 1 400 1 200 15-24 1 000 800 25-64 600 65+ 400 Trinidad and 200 Tobago 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Past and Projected Trends in Population Sizes Barbados and Saint Lucia 1950-2050 350 300 250 15-24 200 25-64 150 65+ Barbados 100 50 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 250 200 15-24 150 25-64 65+ 100 Saint Lucia 50 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Past and Projected Trends in Population Sizes Guyana and Belize 1950-2050 900 800 700 600 15-24 500 25-64 400 65+ 300 Guyana 200 100 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 700 600 500 15-24 400 25-64 300 65+ Belize 200 100 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Working Age Populations Future Dynamics Barbados Belize 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2015 2020 2030 2040 2015 2020 2030 2040 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s Guyana Jamaica 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2015 2020 2030 2040 2015 2020 2030 2040 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s Saint Lucia Trinidad and Tobago 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2015 2020 2030 2040 2015 2020 2030 2040 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s

Unemployment Rates 2015 National Youth Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate Barbados 11.3 44.2 Belize 10.1 18.9 Jamaica 13.5 32.9 Trinidad and Tobago 3.4 8.4

Population Dynamics, Institutional Arrangements and Emergent Labour Market Challenges Cultural Persistent fertility decline and its impact on education outcomes and by extension, Antecedents human capabilities Global More sophisticated technology, changing Technology modes of production and their impact on the demand and supply of skilled labour Public Sector Public sector reform and its impact on Management public sector employment and the delivery of public goods and services International Threats to increasing public revenue, And Global sustaining surplus budgets, and Economics expanding foreign revenue bases

Cultural Antecedents • Persistent fertility decline and its impact on education outcomes and by extension, human capabilities - Women in lower socio-economic status groups have inordinately higher levels of fertility - Greater proportion of declining annual number of births consisting of children from lower socio- economic status groups - Challenges for the education system - Labeling in the labour market - Prospective engagement in menial jobs that are often exploitive

Global Technology • More sophisticated technology, changing modes of production and their impact on the demand and supply of skilled labour – Technological revolutions and innovations are externally driven – Caribbean countries as consumers of technology – How are the international drivers of technology preparing their workforce in accordance with changing technology? – Have to change the bias that favours professional pursuits over high skilled trades which are now much more sophisticated with the advancement of technology

Public Sector Management • Public sector reform and its impact on public sector employment and the delivery of public goods and services – Promotion of higher levels of efficiency • Reductions in the size of the public sector and emphasis on contract labour • Hence, the need for greater private sector investment and a strong entrepreneurial thrust catering among young persons – Legislative frameworks to protect the engagement of young persons in specific industries, perhaps in accordance with co-operative ventures • Industries such as facilitating the entertainment sector, creative sector, film • In almost every industry, there is an aging population due to increasing median age with the passage of time

International and Domestic Economics • Threats to increasing public revenue, sustaining surplus budgets, and expanding foreign revenue bases – Prospective decline in working age populations – Globalization and its impact on enhanced tastes among Caribbean populations for foreign goods and services – Increased influx of immigrants from some of the world’s more populous countries – China, India, Latin America, the Middle-East • Largely merchant class with entrepreneurial instincts • Exploitive arrangement with emergent marginalized domestic workforce in the absence of appropriate interventions

Prospective Research Agendas • Stage-specific pedagogy in education systems, learning and entrepreneurial orientations • Levels of unemployment and under-employment among young people in the Caribbean • Social inequality, educational achievement and labour market experiences • Tracking the acquisition and development of multi- lingual skills in Caribbean societies – Spanish, Mandarin, Cantonese, Hindi, Urdu, German, French – Increasing stock of immigrants with acceptable levels of english language competencies – Access to trading opportunities – Role of the education system • Labour market information systems in the context of Big Data.

Thanks for Your Attention