The European Com m issions science and know ledge service Joint - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The European Com m ission’s science and know ledge service Joint Research Centre JRC w ork on resilience F. Campolongo Directorate Grow th & I nnovation OECD-NAEC sem inar Paris, 2 3 October 2 0 1 7

JRC developed a conceptual fram ew ork for resilience in consultation w ith European Com m ission services 2

W hat is resilience? Resilience is the ability of a system/ society to sustain its level of societal w ellbeing , without compromising that of future generations, by reacting to shocks and persistent structural changes 3

DISTURBANCE INTENSITY Change: disturbance unbearable Transform ative capacity High : disturbance Flexibility: Medium : Adaptive capacity greater disturbance Stability: Low : small Absorptive capacity TIME OF EXPOSURE 4

The system view 5

A test case on the 2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 2 financial and econom ic crisis 6

Measurem ent strategy System variables I ndicators of resilience Resilience drivers 7

Pilot on the financial and econom ic crisis Resilience of Resilience of the Resilience of assets engine outcomes Eco-system Wellbeing Wellbeing services 2008-2012 crisis Socio system Socio-system service services Negative Negative outcomes outcomes Natural capital INSTITUTIONS Market -Markets Consumption Consumption Human capital Human capital -Business and R&D Production -Infrastructures process -Policies Investment Investment Social capital Social capital Communities -Communities Built capital Built capital 8

I ndicators of resilience - exam ples I m pact Absorptive capacity Recovery Adaptation capacity 9

Result 1 : Good absorption does not im ply good adaptation, and vice-versa Econom ic and financial resilience Recovery: Low  High I m pact: Low  High 10

Result 2 : Shock absorption : the role of tax & social benefits as "autom atic stabilisers" Level of autom atic incom e stabilisation for households in EU countries ( 2 0 1 4 ) Negative shocks on household income are absorbed by between 20% and 45% on average in the EU (lhs). Social benefits are particularly important for the poorest households (rhs). 11

Result 3 : W e need to go dow n to regions Regional Resilience indicator Key variables : • GDP per capita: key variable for measuring economic performances Resilience indicator not resilient • Productivity (GDP/ employment): required for a lasting growth • Employment rate (employment/ population): key for generating GDP resilient Note: GDP/ pop. = GDP/ employment × employment/ pop Source: JRC.B.3 LUI SA 1 2

Result 4 : W e need to go dow n to different groups/ com m unities Change of em ploym ent, by type of occupation and country - 2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 6 Routine w orkers are the least resilient group 13

Result 5 : A system view is w hat w e need System view : including social resilience Recovery: Low  High I m pact: Low  High 14

Result 6 : TRUST helps increasing resilience Preliminary findings of a JRC study indicate that: • Generalized trust is positively associated to education • This association is stronger in countries with greater birthplace diversity and w eaker in countries with greater incom e inequality 15

W ay forw ard • Further develop our case studies (e.g. dig into resilience characteristics/ drivers to produce a dashboard for monitoring purposes) • Enlarge the dataset with region- and city-level data • Extend the work to urgent challenges such as m igration and digital transform ation 16

Potential collaboration w ith the OECD  Data exchange  Use JRC resilience framework as intergovernmental standard in the context of the project being discussed between NIST, NAEC, JRC (meeting 13 October) 17

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