Technology Preparedness in achieving NDC targets Conserving Now, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Technology Preparedness in achieving NDC targets Conserving Now, Preserving Future

India’s Nationally Determined Contributions • Reduce emissions intensity per unit GDP by 33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030 • Achieve 40% share of fossil-free capacity in electricity mix • Create an additional carbon sink equivalent to 2.5-3 Gt of carbon dioxide Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Decoding NDC Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Decoding NDC Energy Intensity of GDP Emission Intensity of Energy Demand Side Supply Side Conserving Now, Preserving Future

• Cooking - - Shift from Biomass to LPG, CNG and Electricity • Transport – - Shift from hydrocarbons to electricity and biofuels • Power - - Renewable Energy, More efficient thermal power plants Conserving Now, Preserving Future

0.40 kgCO2e/kWh(Primary) 0.34 0.28 0.28 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.16 0.10 2005 2007 2010 2020 2030 Historic IESS aggressive IESS max clean & RE NDC BAU EV/IC Conserving Now, Preserving Future

0.23 0.1851 0.19 kWh(Primary)/INR 0.1639 0.1579 0.153 0.1496 0.1469 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2/GDP @-33% CO2/GDP @-35% Historic trend Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Objective to achieve NDC Conserving Now, Preserving Future

NDC Framework – Technology Needs NDC Emission Intensity of Energy Energy Intensity of GDP - Coal - Agriculture SUPPLY DEMAND - Natural Gas - Buildings - Solar - Industries - Wind - Transport - Hydro - Nuclear Supporting Infrastructure - Energy Storage - Grid Infrastructure Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Technology Needs – Supply Side

Solar No Manufacturing ~3.4 GW cell & ~8.4 GW module manufacturing • Solar installed capacity - ~14 GW • PV modules mainly imported ( ~85% from China) • Domestic modules not cost competitive Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Solar PV – Indigenous Manufacturing Cost comparison for domestic vs Imported module 30.0 • 22.5 Option 1: Import wafer INR/Wp Depreciation • 15.0 Interest Working c Option 2 : Import cell Interest Term Loa S&G, Overheads, O&M, Insurance • Option 3: Vertically integrated plant 7.5 Labour Energy • Rs 10,000 Crore for 2 GW plant, Raw Material 0.0 DCR SA VI Chinese DCR - Wafer imported for cell SA - Cell imported for module VI - Only MG-Si imported DCR = Domestic Content Requirement ; SA= Stand-alone; VI= Vertically integrated Source: Feasibility analysis for c-Si PV manufacturing in India. CSTEP Policy Brief, 2017. Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Technology Material Needs Wind Needs • Raw Material Imported Blades Mostly available; • Supply chain constraints Installed Capacity: 32.7 GW • Tower Completely available Available; Target by 2022 60 GW • High-grade Carburised Casting and Forging Target by 2030 (NDC) 100 GW steel Gear Box facilities for Higher • Moderately available capacities Bearings Currently Imported - • Rare earth metals Nd and Dy alloys for Available, but energy Generator permanent magnets intensive; • Annealed copper strips for conductors Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Technology Needs – Supporting Infrastructure

Supporting Infrastructure (Energy Storage) Suitable Status of Manufacturing Storage type Challenges Applications (India) High gestation period; high Grid-scale Available Pumped hydro capex; environmental concerns balancing (Installed capacity = 4.8 GW) Flow battery Low power density; high cost Mini-grids Absent Advanced Pb Medium power density; toxicity Rooftop, Telecom, Mostly present , apart from acid issues with Pb Mini-grids separator in VRLA batteries High cost; no Li reserves in Grid-scale Li ion Absent in large scale India intermittency, EV Conserving Now, Preserving Future

LIB : Economics of Indigenization • 50 GWh LIB plant • Capital Cost: $ 4.6 Billion • Battery Cost: $ 148 per kWh • Present global cost: $ 230 per kWh Source: CSTEP Policy Brief Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Supporting Infrastructure (Grid) Technology availability and Technology Sub components Application deployment availability in India Convert RE power to grid-compatible Converters for HVDC power Commercially available Power Electronic Devices Form critical component of HVDC lines Technology not available but FACTS and D-FACTS Enhance grid stability/controllability deployment available Different types of conductors like ACSR, Transmission network AAAC, Zebra, Moose, Bersimis and To transmit power Commercially available transformers Protection Relays, Switchgear To maintain grid stability Commercially available Harmonic filters, Dynamic voltage restorer Technology not available but Power quality (DVR), Unified power quality To maintain power quality in the grid deployment available conditioner(UPQC) Automate metering & billing Smart meters Monitoring demand/consumption Commercially available Improve demand estimation Reactive power management Capacitors & Reactors Maintain voltage limits of the grid Commercially available SCADA/EMS Steady state view of the power System Commercially available Monitoring Systems Dynamic real time measurements and Technology not available but WAMS /Phasor Measurement Units visualization of power system deployment available Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Technology Needs – Demand Side

Industry SEC (MJ/t clinker) 4,875 • Cement & Steel : India compares with the best 3,900 3513 SEC (MJ/t clinker) 3066 • Recyclability and Reusability 2,925 • Solar based process heating 1,950 975 • Waste Heat Recovery Systems 0 India USA Germany EU28 Brazil China + Korea + Japan WORLD Source: GNR, WBCSD 2014 Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Buildings ( AC and HVAC) • Space cooling demand - ~10% in 2030 • Improve SEER of AC in India - Compressor Efficiency - Variable Speed Drives in compressor ODP GWP Market - Heat exchanger efficiency (tR 11/t) (tCO2/t) Share (%) • Shift to Low GWP Refrigerants R-22 0.055 1810 90% R-410A 0 2088 8.5% • Vapour absorption refrigeration systems R-32 0 677 1% R-290 0 3.3 0.5% Source: LBNL and CSTEP Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Transport • Electric Vehicles - Battery is imported! - Need to consider indigenous manufacturing • Biofuels - Next generation ethanol Technologies Source: GGGI & CSTEP “Electric Buses in India: Technology, Policy and Benefits” Conserving Now, Preserving Future

ORGANIZATION LOGO Thank You Conserving Now, Preserving Future

ORGANIZATION LOGO Back Up Stuff Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Energy Supply 2030 Electricity Generation Capacity: 795 GW Total Primary Energy Supply Commercial Non- 13195 TWh Biomass Biomass commercial Wind 4% 3% Biomass 12% Oil 2% 20% Solar 15% Natural Gas 8% Coal Nuclear Hydro 51% 2% 4% Wind Solar 1% 2% Coal Nuclear 56% Hydro 5% 10% Gas Diesel 3% 2% Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Nuclear • Important source of clean baseload power • Current Capacity ~ 7,000 MW • But, possibility to increase to 30,000 MW • Technology Requirement Indigenous pressurized heavy water reactors Imported Light Water reactors Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Ultra supercritical, 0.0007 Supercritical, 0.233 Coal Total Capacity (2016) • Shift to Super-critical and Ultra 188GW Subcritical, Super Critical boilers 0.7662 • Coal Beneficiation Improve Station Heat Rate Improvements in Steam Cycle; Turbine Efficiency • Installation of Pollution Control Technologies Scrubbers, ESP & SCR Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Supporting Infrastructure (Grid) Intervention Status Market Stage Roof top solar • Installed/target ~ 0.8/40 GWp (target by 2022) Mature PV • Target ~ 6 – 7 million vehicle sales by 2020 Electric Emerging • Vehicles Aims to sell only electric vehicles by 2030 • 40% of population  depends on solid bio mass for Electricity based fuel • cooking 50% of LPG needs imported Nascent • MoP plans to reduce oil imports by 10% from 2014 - 15 levels by 2022 Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Solar PV – Emerging Technologies Process Ingot Wafer Cell Technology Diamond Wire Saw PERC Gas to Wafer Shingling Bifacial Disruptive High Medium High Medium High Potential Maturity Level Medium Infancy Infancy Source: SERIIUS, CSTEP Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Agriculture • Technology – not a bottleneck • Precision FARMING for optimising water use - Use of Artificial Intelligence - Drip Irrigation Scenario 2030 Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Energy Demand 2030 Final Energy Demand – 8296 TWh Commercial Residential 11% 15% Agriculture 6% Transport 22% Industry Source: QoL for All (CSTEP) and IESS 2047 46% Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Lighting and Cooking Cooking Fuel Share - 2030 Penetration Levels 8% • 50% Technology is not a 25% bottleneck 8% Rural • 9% Need enabling POLICY 35% framework 10% Urban 55% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Source: QoL for All (CSTEP) and IESS 2047 Conserving Now, Preserving Future