SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY FOR ALL Kenya Evidence Forum Nancy Vandycke June 14, 2016
� TRANS TRANSPOR ORT INVE T INVESTM TMENT NTS Investments are needed for sustainable new and exisDng transport systems Global investments in public and private transport: $1.4-$2.1 trillion per year* § Private investment = 58% § ODA and Green Funds: 2% § HIC: 75 % Capital needs to achieve 2 degree scenario pathway:** § $2 trillion § $237 billion in BRT and rail investments (*) Levefre B., and al. (2014), “The Trillion dollar ques]on: (**) Lefevre B, and al. (2016), “The Trillion dollar ques]on II: tracking investment needs in transport” WRI 2
IN KENY IN KENYA A ACTIVE PORTFOLIO ALL SECTORS IDA TOP 3 SECTORS (ACTIVE PORTFOLIO) Public Net Commitments/ Administra] WBG CommiQed ($m) Others on, Law and 31% Jus]ce IDA 4,131.1 28% IFC 908.1 Water, MIGA Sanita]on [CATEGORY World Bank Group 5,039.2 NAME] and Flood [PERCENTA Protec]on GE] 22% TRANSPORT Pipeline FY17/18 Commitments 100.00 Kenya Rural Roads Project Na]onal Urban Transport Improvement 300.00 0.06 Airport Moderniza]on Project Transport Sector Support Project 503.50 250.00 Nairobi BRT Project Total 803.50 350.06 Total 3
GL GLOB OBAL AL C CONTE ONTEXT XT What does the future hold for us? By 2030, 3 billion more people on Dollar value of digital Freight volume expected Earth, with rising informaDon flows already to quadruple aspiraDons for mobility exceeds value of traded goods 4
CHALLENGE CHALLENGES CollecDve global efforts on sustainable mobility have so far been insufficient: 1 32 70 billion 1 23 % GHG billion % fuel % in road cars emissions people energy deaths �Over 1 billion 70 percent of fuel Number of Road death rate Transport is people have no energy is lost in vehicles on the per 100,000 responsible for 23 access to an all- engine and road expected to popula]on percent of energy- weather road driveline double to 2 billion increased 32% in related GHG inefficiencies. by 2050 Low Income emissions and this share is increasing Countries (from 18.3 in 2010 to 24.1 in 2013) 5
VISION VIS ION To facilitate Sustainable Mobility for All through four goals: CLIMATE & ACCESS GOALS EFFICIENCY SAFETY ENVIRONMENT FOR ALL Embed mi]ga]on, Secure access for all Improve the Increase the adapta]on, and to economic and safety of mobility efficiency of environmental social opportuni]es (SDG target 3.6 transport systems concerns on road safety) and services into supply as well as demand side OUTCOMES Progress on these goals will improve the lives and livelihoods of billions of people across the world—their health, their environment, their quality of life—and help stabilize climate change over the long term. 6
GLOB GL OBAL AL TRA TRACKING F CKING FRAM RAMEWORK ORK § A global tracking framework (GTF) to measure progress towards the four goals, using country-level indicators. § Progress on each goal tracked using one principal, two addi]onal, and other suppor]ng indicators. § This GTF to be supported by a partnership to develop, collect, and analyze data and indicators. 7
CALL F CALL FOR A OR ACTION TION Many actors have made voluntary financial and operaDonal commitments : CITIES COUNTRIES PRIVATE SECTOR MDBs LPAA/CIVIL SOCIETY >$175 billion >80 >260 15 >70% commimed in loans ini]a]ves have commimed ci]es (affiliated with transporta]on countries are targe]ng and grants for C40) are tackling to reducing carbon companies pledged transport sustainable climate change and footprint across transport to reduce GHG in their NDCs modes climate risk emissions transport from 2013 to 2022 Transforming the world’s mobility requires more . We need: A robust global vision to guide us Bold and ambi]ous acDons A global tracking framework to Strengthen global coaliDons to carry measure progress the agenda forward 8
BOLD AND AMBITIOUS BOLD AND AMBITIOUS A ACTIONS TIONS We need scale and focus to radically transform the movement of people and goods in the short, medium, and long-term. In the short-term: a set of “quick-wins” , such as: ■ Modernizing ageing rail fleets and ■ Expanding congesDon/road charging in trac]on systems major global ci]es In the medium-term: ac]ons, such as: ■ Accelerate the introducDon of carbon ■ Dedicated funding for sustainable pricing (including fuel subsidy reform) mobility in the Green Climate and Climate Investment funds ■ Roll out safety technologies that can dras]cally reduce traffic accidents and ■ Rebalance urban public space in favor of fatali]es non-motorized transport (bicycling and walking) In the long-term: ac]ons, such as a Global Roadmap for De-Carboniza]on of the Transport Sector 9
GL GLOB OBAL AL C COAL ALITION ITION We need to strengthen and expand exis]ng coaliDons of bold and commimed actors drawn from a range of groups: ■ NaDonal champions: Synergies with the SDGs and the Paris agreement (NDCs) can best be op]mized at the country level. ■ City champions: Ci]es are at the forefront of sustainable mobility and will be leading many of the sustainable mobility ini]a]ves. ■ Private sector champions: Private sector is likely to remain at the cuong edge of innova]ons and a key investor for sustainable transport. ■ Civil society: Organiza]ons promo]ng coordinated ac]on are central. ■ InternaDonal actors: Organiza]ons with interna]onal clout will be key sources of leadership and knowledge. The role of these coaliDons will be to share knowledge, advocate, galvanize acDon, and catalyze financing from the public and private sector for sustainable mobility. 10
SUS SUSTAINABLE LE MO MOBILI LITY—THE E WAY FORWARD D COP22, Morocco – and UNSG HLAG Sustainable November UNSG HLAG ST Conference, Transport MeeDng , San]ago. Ashgabat - Engagement with HLAG on May 31 Recommenda]ons on sustainable mobility sustainable mobility endorsed World Bank-IMF Annual Climate AcDon Summit (Plenary). October 7-9 MeeDngs - Dialogue May 5-6 Conveners: UN Secretary General with Ministers of Finance on and WBG President. Dialogue on sustainable mobility. Plus Pre- sustainable mobility Summit Stakeholders’ Workday – Transport Track, May 4 InternaDonal Habitat III Transport Forum, May 18-20 Conference - Deep- October 17-20 Leipzig. Ministers of dive on urban October Transport. Dialogue on mobility World Economic Forum , sustainable mobility UN General Jan 17-20, 2017 September 13-20 Davos – High level Assembly. support for sustainable High-level event mobility for all Work with Partners to Rally SupporDng Voices 11
How can the IE Connect for Impact Contribute? Better understand the economics of T&I interventions to achieve higher impact • Generate evidence on key topics at scale (conclusive results) to support the Narrative on sustainable transport • Make significant investments in knowledge generation in priority business areas (urban mobility, transport corridors, broadband access) • Establish the evidence basis for linking interventions with poverty reduction, growth and sustainable development • Pooling intellectual and financial resources to achieve scale (e.g., involve other MDBs to maximize cross-institutional learning spill-overs). 12
MDB’s RESPONSE Paris Commitment on Climate Finance by MDBs, 2020* Rio+20 MDBs AfdB: $5 billio : $5 billion n Pledge on ADB: $6 billio $6 billion n Sustainable EIB: 35 % 35 % Transport Paris Joint MDBs (from 25%) commitment on $175 billion $175 billio n EBRD: 40 % 40 % Transport and (from 20%) 2012-22 2012-22 Change On On t track ck IDB: 25-30 % 25-30 % ($65 billion) ($65 billio n) (from 14%) WBG: 28 % 28 % (from 21%) 13
WO WORLD BA BANK RES ESPONSE Transport Sector (FY FY11-15, USD Billions) (Percentages of Commitments with climate co-benefits ) 100% WBG’s total commitment for climate finance 8 n (2015) è $29 b 80% $10.3 billion (2015) $10.3 billio $29 billion illion (2020) (2020) 6 60% (USD Billions) 6.1 4.6 4 40% 3.9 4.3 3.1 2 0.8 20% 0.3 WB Transport for clima mate fi finance 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.9 0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 transport commitments with mihgahon benefits with adaptahon benefits Proje jected 2016-2020 2011-15 (actual) 2011-15 (ac tual) 2015 (actual) 2015 (ac tual) US$ 10.5 billion US$ 10.5 billio n US US$7. $7.8 b 8 billion illion US$1.3 billio US$1.3 billion n (26.4% % of total transport (35% % of total transport commi mmitme ment) commi mmitme ment) o/w adaptahon = = $200 mi million o/w o/w adaptahon = = US$ 715 mi million US$ 2.1 billion US$ 2.1 billio n 14
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