Sustainability of Indian Energy Sustainability of Indian Energy Sector & Challenges Sector & Challenges I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy) I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy) I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy) I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy) Planning Commission Planning Commission Government of India Government of India
Trends in Supply of Primary Commercial Energy Trends in Supply of Primary Commercial Energy (in MTOE) (in MTOE) 2000-01 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 Actual Actual (Provi) Proj. Proj. DOMESTIC PRODUCTION Coal 130.61 177.24 222.16 308.55 400 Lignite 6.43 8.76 10.64 16.80 29 Crude Oil 33.4 33.99 39.23 42.75 43 Natural Gas 25.07 27.71 42.79 76.13 103 Hydro Power 6.4 9.78 11.22 12.90 17 Nuclear Power 4.41 4.91 8.43 16.97 30 Renewable Energy 0.13 0.87 5.25 10.74 20 Total Domestic commercial Energy Total Domestic commercial Energy 206.45 206.45 263.28 263.28 339.72 339.72 481.84 481.84 642.00 642.00 153.28 174.20 187.66 202.16 Non-commercial Energy 1 136.64 (1.93) (2.6%) (1.5%) (1.5%) Total 343.09 416.56 513.92 669.50 844.16 IMPORTS Coal 11.76 24.92 54.00 90.00 150.00 Petroleum Products 77.25 98.41 129.86 152.44 194.00 LNG 0 8.45 12.56 24.80 31.00 Hydro power 0 0.26 0.45 0.52 0.6 Total Net Imports 89.01 132.04 196.87 267.76 375.60 Total Commercial Energy (growth 396.32 536.59 749.60 1017.60 295.46 over previous 5 years) (5.01%) (6.25%) (6.91%) 6.30%) 549.60 710.79 937.26 1219.76 Total Primary Energy 432.01 (4.09%) (5.28%) (5.69%) (5.41%) Source: Planning Commission : Figures in brackets are annual average growth rates over the previous 5 years period
Power Sector Indicators – World (2008) Country GDP(PPP)/Capita Per Capita Consumption Electricity Energy (US$)2000 Normalized (KWh) Tons USA 38,558 100.0 13,647 7.5 Germany 28,638 89.1 7148 4.1 Brazil Brazil 8,584 8,584 51.8 51.8 2232 2232 1.3 1.3 China 8,150 24.1 2453 1.6 India 3,781 19.2 818 * 0.58 India 2031-32 # 2470 1.5 Source: 1. Key World Energy Statistics 2010, #. Estimates of Integrated Energy Policy 2007 *. CEA 2010-11 ( Provi.)
Sectors % GDP Share – CHINA Vs INDIA CHINA INDIA 60 56 54 60 48.2 50.9 50 49 47 50 41.1 43 41.6 40 40 31.3 40 % of GDP 33.2 29 of GDP 27.6 26.9 31.3 30 26 27 24.9 % of G 30 30 % o 18 20 17 15.9 20 11 10 10 10 0 0 1990 2000 2008 2011 1990 2000 2008 2011 Agriculture Industry Services Source: World Bank- World Development Indicators -2012
Electricity Generation Capacity – World 2009 (including non-utility capacity) (000’ MW) Items USA Germany Brazil China India Thermal 770 80.2 25.3 706.7 131.6 (74.8%) (67.4%) (9.9%) (74.8%) (65.8%) Hydro 78 10.6 78.6 213.4 39.0 (11.6%) (11.6%) (3.7%) (3.7%) (83.2%) (83.2%) (24.5%) (24.5%) (19.5%) (19.5%) Nuclear 101 20.5 2.0 10.8 4.8 (11.6%) (19.5%) (2.6%) (0.7%) (2.4%) Geothermal/Solar 61 41 8 32.0 24.5 Wind /Biomass (2.0%) (9.4%) (4.3%) (12.3%) TOTAL 1010 152.3 113.9 962.9 * 199.9 # # Installed Capacity as March 2012 Utilities & Non-Utilities – 225,000 MW; * 2010
Capacity Addition (Plan-wise) – Sector Wise (in MW) 9 th Plan 10 th Plan 11 th Plan 12 th Plan Sector Actual Actual Actual Target Central 4504 12165 15220 26181.6 State 9450 6244.6 16732 15530.0 Private 5061 2670.6 23012 46825.0 Renewable 6761 14267 30000.0 All India 19015 27,841 69,231 118536.6
Capacity Addition (Plan-wise) - Mode-Wise (In MW) 9 th Plan 10 th Plan 11 th Plan 12 th Plan 13 th Plan Mode-Wise Actual Actual Actual Provi. Scenario Thermal 13,597 12,114 48,540 72,340 49,200 Hydro 4,538 7,886 5,544 10,897 12,000 Nuclear 880 1,080 880 5,300 18,000 Renewable 6761 14267 30,000 30,500 Total 19,015 27,841 69,231 118537 1,09,700
Changing Structure of Fuel for Electricity ( in %) Capacity (%) Generation (%) 2012 2017 2030 2012 2017 2030 1. Coal 56 57 42 70 69 58 2. Oil 1 1 0 0 0 0 3. Gas 9 6 3 7 5 3 4. Hydro 20 15 13 14 12 11 5. Renewables 12 17 33 6 9 16 6. Nuclear 2 4 9 3 5 12 7. Total Clean Energy (4+5+6) 23 26 39
COAL DEMAND DURING TWELFTH PLAN ( in MT )
COAL PRODUCTION ( in MT )
Demand-Supply Gap in 2016-17 ( in MT )
Natural Gas Availability MMT/MMSCMD 2011-12 2012-13 2016-17 Demand of Natural Gas 250 286 370 Production of Natural gas 130 143 230 Import of LNG (MMT) Import of LNG (MMT) 10.13 14 30 (38) (114)
BEE Proposed Schemes : 12 th Plan Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) in new building and energy efficiency improvements in existing buildings (Phase-II) Avoided capacity addition of 928 MW Municipal Demand Side management (MuDSM) Programme Avoided capacity addition of 120 MW Energy Efficiency and Technologies Up-gradation in Small and Medium enterprises Avoided capacity addition of 131 MW Standard & Labeling Scheme (S&L) Avoided capacity addition of 7766 MW Total Saving @ 5 Cr /MW will be Rs 44725 Crore Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency
National Energy Saving Targets under PAT (%) (2012-15) Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency
PAT Scheme : Background & Scope Covers 478 designated consumers in 8 sectors All DCs consume about 165 million toe energy Targets would be given to all DCs to achieve the same within a time frame -Achievement > Target E-Scerts -Achievement < Target Purchase E-Scerts / Penalty The Energy Savings Certificates (ESCerts) so issued will be tradable on special trading platforms to be created in the two power exchanges (Indian Energy Exchange and Power Exchange India). National Target = 6.686 million toe at the end of 1st PAT Cycle ( by 2014-15) Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency
Perform, Achieve & Trade (PAT) Mechanism Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT): A market based mechanism to enhance cost effec-tiveness of improvements in energy efficiency in energy-intensive large industries and facilities, through certification of energy savings that could be traded. The key goal of the PAT scheme is to mandate specific energy efficiency improvements for the most energy intensive industries. The scheme builds on the large variation in energy intensities of different units in almost every sector, ranging from amongst the best in the world, to extremely inefficient units as well. The energy intensity reduction target mandated for each unit is dependent on its current efficiency : the reduction target is less for those who are more efficient, and is higher for the currently less-efficient units. The design of PAT is the result of extensive consultations over the last two years (2010-11 and 2011-12), which have contributed to its robustness and simplicity. Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency
Unit Cost Of Fuel – Cent/kwh Country Coal Natural Gas USA 1.5-2.0 2.1 Canada 1.6 2.0 China China 2.0-2.5 2.0-2.5 3.5 3.5 India 2.0-2.5 4.5 # Source: Country Reports # Domestic Natural Gas
Energy Architecture Conceptual Framework 18
THANKYOU 19
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