Supervisor: Prof. Hiroaki Ueda Erdenebadrakh Munkhjargal Graduate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Supervisor: Prof. Hiroaki Ueda Erdenebadrakh Munkhjargal Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Tsukuba Climate, M2 (st.ID 201225024 ) 2013

1/14 Outline: • General background 1 • Objective of the study 2 • Previous study 3 • Result: (Climatology in Mongolia) 4 • Conclusion 5 • Future study 6

2/14 General background climate: arid and semi-arid altitude: 1580m Distribution of air temperature, (Jan) & Annual precipitation Annual temperature is increased by 2.1 0 C since 1940 and annual precipitation is decreased by 0.7% compare to climate normal since 1940

Objective of the study 3/14 One major reason is to study that nomadic livestock husbandry is one of the important parts of the society of Mongolia. Is it highly depends weather condition. Even a few centimeters of snow accumulation in Mongolia can cause big effect the livestock. Thus, the ability to provide long-term forecasts of snowfall is important

4/14 Previous study Snow fall variation is related atmospheric circulation Frequency of cyclogenesis Mt. Altai -Sayan Xinmin Wang et al. 1999 Adachi and Kimura., 2007. Differences in annual counts The highest frequency of of extratropical cyclones between cyclogenesis was located over the 1980-2001 and 1958-1979 on the Mongolian Plateau, on the lee northern Asia side of Altai-Sayan Mountain

5/14 Previous study In the future climate experiments shows number of intense cyclones a significant increase whereas the number of total cyclones a significant decrease Ryo Mizuta, (2012) Multi model ensemble means of change from the historical run.

5/14 Previous study In the future climate experiments shows number of intense cyclones a significant increase whereas the number of total cyclones a significant decrease < Meridional gradient> The lower troposphere warming in the tropics is weaker than high latitudes, resulting in a weakened MTG. Which may suppress number of cyclone In upper troposphere, the MTG is enhanced due to much stronger warming in the tropics than in high latitudes. Which may enhance storm track activity Ryo Mizuta, (2012) Multi model ensemble means of change from the historical run.

Data 6/14 Location of meteorological stations Location of meteorological stations Used 80 meteorological stations: 1969-2012 Snow depth, Number of snow day and Surface temperature Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH)

Results, current condition 7/14 Monthly mean snow depth in northern Eurasia, Japan & Mongolia home.Hayasaki.JMA_data montly _reportsurface_obs-climate.gmt

Results 8/14 Annual snow depth in Mongolia Annual snow depth in Northern and 7.0 (1969 — 2012) Southern parts (1969 — 2012) 12.0 6.5 11.0 north south - 0.25cm / 10 year 6.0 10.0 5.5 9.0 5.0 8.0 - 0.32/10 year 7.0 4.5 6.0 4.0 5.0 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.0 - 0.33/10 year 2.0 0.0 1.5 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Results, current condition 9/14 Judah L Cohen and et al. 2011 The surface temperature has increased lineally from mid 1960s, while the air temperature in the Stratosphere temperature salient decreasing trend, which is consistent with radiative -convective equilibrium theory. NH Land temperatures anomalies - DJF Mongolia Surface temperature anomalies – DJF 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Cohen et al. (2013, Environ. Res. Lett .) Observed trend : NH = 0.05 0 C /10 year Mongolia= -0.8 0 C /10 year

Results, current condition 10/14 The spatial pattern of linear trends in DJF, ON, MA snow depth (cm/year), 1988-2012 ON DJF MA The red (blue) shaded areas indicate positive (negative) coefficient.

12.0 10.0 [cm] February DJF mean snow depth [cm] 8.0 9.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 y = -0.0016 x + 5.7917 2.0 y = 0.0232 x + 4.8864 0.0 0.0 12.0 6.0 April January Increasing Decreasing 10.0 5.0 8.0 4.0 DJF 0.2cm/10 year Annual -0.05 cm/10 year 6.0 3.0 4.0 2.0 January 0.1 cm/10 year February -0.012 cm/10 year y = 0.0101 x + 5.6378 y = -0.0301x + 3.407 2.0 1.0 0.0 March 0.1 cm/10 year April -0.3 cm/10 year 0.0 10.0 5 March October 8.0 December 0.5 cm/10 year May -0.4 cm/10 year 4 6.0 3 October -0.6 cm/10 year 4.0 2 November -0.1 cm/10 year 2.0 1 y = 0.0131 x + 4.6003 y = -0.0586x + 3.1911 0.0 0 10 7 November [cm] December 6 8 5 6 4 3 4 2 2 y = -0.009x + 3.3548 1 y = 0.0448x + 4.0379 0 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

12/14 Results Number of day with snow cover in Mongolia 220.0 200.0 All Mongolia North part South part 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 All Mongolia Northern part Southern part + 2.0 day/10 year + 2.6 day/10 year + 1.3 day / 10 year

14/14 Future Study 8/8 Future study Continental-scale snow cover extent is a potentially sensitive indicator of climate change. In Mongolia, snow fall process is very closely related with synoptic disturbance embedded in the westerly Jet. Ueda et al (2003) demonstrated that springtime diminishment of snow is regulated through not only surface temperature but also cyclonic activity relevant to the meridional warm air advection. 1. Evaluate of cyclic activity such as frequency of surface cyclogenesis over the Mongolia 2. Cyclone track 3. Relationship between snowfall variation and cyclones. Data:  in situ observation data SLP, AT, ST, WS (1975-2012) at 40 Met Stations  Reanalyze data JRA55, ERA-40 (1981-2000)  CMIP5 data (6 hourly)

References: Batima ma., , P., D. Dagvadorj, 2000: Climate te Change and Its Impacts in Mongoli lia. a. JEMR. Publis blishi hing: : Ulaanbaatar nbaatar. Mongolia, lia, 25pp. Ueda, H., M. Shinoda and H. Kamahori ri, , 2003: : Spring northwa hward rd retreat at of Eurasian ian snow cover r relevant ant to seas asonal nal and interann rannual ual variations tions of atmospheric heric circulat lation. ion. Int. J. J. Climato tol., , 23 , 615 , 615-629. 29. Adachi, i, S. a and F. Ki Kimura, 2007: A 3 36 year climato atology of surface ce i in the east t Asia using high- resolution lution reanalysis alysis data. SOLA, 3 , 113-116. 16. Morinag inaga, a, Y., S. F F. Tain and M. Shinodo.2003: .2003: Winter r snow anomaly aly and atmospheric heric circulati ulation n in Mongolia. lia. Int. J. Climato atol., ., 23, 1627-1636. 1636. Mizuta, ta, R., M. Matsue ueda and H. Endo, 2011: : Future re change in extrotro tropical ical cyclone nes associated ciated with change in the upper troposphere here. . Int. J. Climato tol., , 24, 6456- 6470. 0. Wang. X and P. Zhai, 2009: Variation tions s in extratro tropical ical cyclone ne activity ity in norther hern n east t Asia, , advance ces in atmospher heric ic Science ces., , 26(3), 471-479 79 . Shinod noda, M., Y. Komatsu u and H. U Ueda, 2011: 1: Snowmelt lt and land-surfa urface ce heating ing processes over easte tern rn Mongolia. lia. SOLA, 7, 1-4. 4. Hayasaki aki, M., S. Sugata and H.L.Tan anaka aka, , 2006: : Interann rannual ual variations tions of cold front activity ity in springt ngtime Mongoli lia. a. J. math ournal al of the Meteoro rological logical Society ty of Japan, , Vol. 84, No. 3, pp. 4 463 — 475. 5. Koike ke Takako ako, Masato ato Shinodo and Purevjav jav Gombolu luude udev,2010: ,2010: Cold and warm deep snow winters rs in Mongoli lia. a. J.agric. . Meteoro rol. . 66(2), 103-110. 10. Shou-Ju Jun n Chen and Ying-HwaK aKuo uo.( .(1990) 1990): : Synoptic ic climato atology of cyclogenesis nesis over the East Asia,1958 a,1958-1987. 1987. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 119, 1407 – 1418. 1418.

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