Soybean Seeding Trend Analysis February 2020 The Story ry of f - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Atlantic Grains Council Soybean Seeding Trend Analysis February 2020

The Story ry of f Soybean Seeding Rates • Introduction • Chapter 1: Plant population • Chapter 2: Yield • Chapter 3: Previous crop • Chapter 4: Seeding equipment • Chapter 5: PEI • The Moral of the Story – what we’re all dying to know

In Introduction to Soybean Seeding Tri rial Trend Analysis • Over 40 sites across the Maritimes from 2015-2019. • Data was “cleaned” for the purpose of trend analysis = 170 results • Removed fields where data was incomplete, and the plant population or yields were outliers (26 results). • Treated germination as a variable, along with variety, fertilizers applied and soil fertility. No statistics stated, just trends. • Treatments: 90,000, 110,000, 130,000, 160,000, 190,000 seeds/acre

Chapter 1: : Pla lant Population • Difference between seeding rate and plant population: • Seeding rate = seed a desired population by calibrating equipment • Plant Population = the actual number of plants per acre in the field Seeding Rate = Target Plant Population = Actual

PEI I Pla lant Population

Chapter 1: : Pla lant Population Target Results of each treatment were divided into three groups: 1. (+/-20% of target) 80%-120% of target population 2. <80% of target population 3. >120% of target population

Chapter 1: : Pla lant Population Economics • How much does missing the target cost? Target Target Seed Cost/acre Population Cost/acre Over Target 90,000 $51 $10 - $27 110,000 $63 $13 - $33 Above target 38% of 130,000 $74 $15 - $68 the time! 160,000 $91 $18 - $96 190,000 $109 $22 - $115

PEI I Target Population 56

Chapter 2: : Yie ield How can we compare yields of the seeding rates when the actual plant populations have such a wide range? • Compare the yields from fields within target populations only. • <80% of target population • 80%-120% of target population (+/-20% of target) • >120% of target population

Plant Population yields sometimes change the story and sometimes they confirm it.

Chapter 2: : Yie ield Economics Assumptions using 2015-19 average yield results (+/-20% target pop): • 1 bag of seed (140,000 seeds) = $80 • Value of soybeans = $400/tonne 90,000 110000 130000 160000 190000 Avg 1.01 1.01 0.97 1.08 0.96 Yields Min 0.42 0.45 0.59 0.53 0.68 MT/acre Max 1.53 1.46 1.53 1.80 1.24 Target Cost seed/acre 51.43 62.86 74.29 91.43 108.57 Avg $351 $343 $315 $341 $277 Net $/acre Min $116 $115 $163 $121 $165 Max $561 $519 $538 $630 $388

Chapter 5: : PEI I Yie ield

Chapter 3: : Previous Crop Did the previous crop influence plant population or yield? • Considered the previous crop only – not the type of rotation • Considered previous crop for effect of crop residue, seed bed and fertility • Previous crops included wheat, barley & oats, soybeans, corn (grain & silage), potatoes and forage

Chapter 4: : Seeding Equipment Did the seeding equipment influence plant population? • Soybeans were planted with either a drill or planter • Equipment was calibrated prior to planting the trial for each seeding rate

Moral of f the Story ry 1) Plant Population Seeding rates and plant population do not trend together with yields. • Highest Yield = 2.16 MT/acre (Pictou Co. NS, 2016, drill) Need to improve accuracy Net* of $778/acre • Plant Population = 148,722 plants/acre Stop over-seeding • Highest Plant Population = 391,674 seeds/acre (Prince Co. PEI, 2015, drill) • Yield = 1.38 MT/ac Net* of $326/acre Better calibration

Moral of f the Story ry 2) Yield • Plant population and yield do not trend together. • There is no difference in yield between 90, 110, 130 & 190,000 seed/acre. • 160,000 seeds/acre is showing a greater potential for yield when seeded at target population. Plant 130,000 - 160,000 seeds/acre • Minimize risk • Maximize potential

Moral of f the Story ry 3) Previous Crop Impacts plant population • Lowest % within target = corn Best Yields Plant After: • Forage • Highest % within target = soybeans • Potatoes • Corn Impacts yields • Lowest yields = grain • Highest yields = forage

Moral of f the Story ry 4) Seeding Equipment • Planter was more accurate with 61% within target population. Use a planter Calibrate

Thoughts and Questions? Higher plant population doesn’t equal higher yield – why not? • Weed pressure • No till vs tillage • Effect of pH and fertility on below target population? • Variety