Presentation in Response to: Solicitation R R2114367P 114367P1. 1. 100 100-Yea ear F Flood Elev evation M Map a and Associated ed M Model eling g Lago C Consulting & g & Services es L LLC LC 4237 Henderson Blvd. Suite 201. Tampa, FL 33629 Sept 27, 2017
2 Conte nt 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required 4. How we will validate those improvements 5. How we intend to address non-stationarity as it relates to development of IDF curves for future conditions 6. Unique tools and utilities that we intends to apply in this project 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform the project 813.774- 5559 Presented to Broward County’s Selection Committee Members, Sept 27, 2017
3 1. Ke y me mbe r s, the ir r ole in the pr oje c t and the ir c apabilitie s Our Team, Our main roles Lago Consulting & Services Bermello Ajamil and Partners Ross Engineering CRS Max • MIKE SHE/MIKE11 • Stakeholder Involvement • Utilities/Tools • Community • Non-Stationary IDF Outreach • Flooding Maps LAGO B&A CRS ROSS Max • Data Processing and Analysis. • Community Rating System • Community Improvement Outreach
4 1. Ke y me mbe r s, the ir r ole in the pr oje c t and the ir c apabilitie s Ananta Nath, P.E, D.WRE – Senior Water Resources Engineer at LAGO • Project manager for all work assignments, • Oversee the work and supervise assigned personnel, Coordinate with the County on all matters regarding the project, • • Provide support in his areas of expertise and QA/QC. Project Manager Peter deGolian, MSc. – Senior Project Manager and Senior Hydrologist at LAGO • Day to day supervision of activities, deadlines and schedule, • Support the project manager in all contract matters, • Assist in coordination with County staff, Hands-on in activities related to his areas of expertise. • Deputy Project Mngr. Marcelo E. Lago, PhD, GISP, CFM – Vice-President and Senior Scientist at LAGO • Hands on guidance and supervision of all modeling tasks Define modeling approaches, methods and evaluate alternatives • • Lead programmer for development of project related utilities. Principal Modeler
5 1. Ke y me mbe r s, the ir r ole in the pr oje c t and the ir c apabilitie s Maria C. Bravo, PhD, P.E. – President and Sr. Scientist and Engineer at LAGO . • Verify that all contract obligations are met Provide QA/QC and serve as the senior technical advisor • • Technical leadership and schedule personnel and resources for successful execution of each task. Principal in Charge Michelle Irizarry, P.E. – Senior Professional Engineer at LAGO • Technical lead for Non-Stationarity IDF Curve development • Specialized support in task 4 to generate storm events assuming nonstationary conditions for both 2060 and 2100 future conditions. Future Condition/ IDF Robert Ross, PE – Principal Engineer and Vice-President of Ross Engineering • Data collection activities, including data review and QA/QC • Community outreach activities. Data Collection QA/QC Herman Taube, PG – Senior Geologist at Ross Engineering • Review of MODFLOW output files for conversion into groundwater utility • Utility testing and verification. ModFlow Expert
6 1. Ke y me mbe r s, the ir r ole in the pr oje c t and the ir c apabilitie s Jose L. Lopez, P.E., PMP – Senior Professional Engineer at B&A Coordinate with Broward County, 298s, professionals, developers municipalities, regulatory agencies and business organizations on the results of the modeling efforts. TAC/WAB, Surface Water Coordination Committee, ASCE, FES, Task Force meetings Technical Outreach Teresita Garcia – Public Involvement Director at B&A Coordinate with Broward County and public outreach. Public forums. Community Outreach Earl King, CFM – CRS Senior Consultant and Vice President of CRS Max FEMA’s Community Rating System. Hands-on on CRS related matters of this project. Provide support to summarize CRS potential creditable criteria and recommendations, as required in task 10. CRS outreach
7 1. Ke y me mbe r s, the ir r ole in the pr oje c t and the ir c apabilitie s Capabilitie s. Role Ke y Me mbe r s Project Manager Deputy Project Manager Principal Modeler Principal in Charge Future Condition/ IDF Technical Outreach Community Outreach Data Collection ModFlow Expert CRS Expert
8 2. Br ie f Re vie w of Pr oje c t Appr oac h 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required? BC Model less TOPOGRAPHY SFWMD’ data LAGO pre-evaluated and found differences between the model elevation data and the most recent DEM from the SFWMD. The BC model will be updated with the new DEM. Cross-sections will be reviewed to ensure that ground elevations are consistent with new elevation data
9 2. Br ie f Re vie w of Pr oje c t Appr oac h 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required? LAND USE Water classified cells in the model do not include all water bodies Recommend updating the landuse map and related parameters
10 2. Br ie f Re vie w of Pr oje c t Appr oac h 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required? STRUCTURES Review structure data currently defined in the model Verify invert elevations and dimensions Verify operational rules and protocols Collect data on recently constructed structures and stormwater management features in the model area. New Permits Coordination with SFWMD Projects in City of Fort Lauderdale
11 2. Br ie f Re vie w of Pr oje c t Appr oac h 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required? DRAINAGE LAGO developed utility to evaluate drainage routing Will evaluate current model drainage routines and correct as needed to improve COUPLING SW-GW Will evaluate leakance coefficients in the MIKE 11 network
12 2. Br ie f Re vie w of Pr oje c t Appr oac h 4. How we will validate those improvements? LAGO will evaluate the accuracy of the model and its ability to reproduce measured data. For this: e stablish criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of 1. 1. LAGO a and t the C County wi will e the model to produce results that are consistent with measured flow, stage and flooding information 2. LAGO and the County will select one or two recent storm events to be used to evaluate model performance 3. Collect measured data of flow and stage for the selected events. Also collect anecdotal information (pictures, reported flooding) for use in area where measured data is limited
13 2. Br ie f Re vie w of Pr oje c t Appr oac h 4. How we will validate those improvements? (Cont.) • Changing the topography and land use suggests that the results of the initial model run may not fully represent the observed conditions for the selected storm events. • LAGO will implement an optimization process to validate the model Our team will put Special focus on structure operations and input parameters that control the timing and volume of runoff during storm events. LAGO’S EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE APPLYING MIKE SHE/MIKE11 MODELS will be utilized during the model verification process to ensure that the model accurately predicts the system response
14 2. Br ie f Re vie w of Pr oje c t Appr oac h 5. How we intend to address non-stationarity related to development of the IDF Curves for Future conditions? Lessons learned from our Hands-on experience on Non-stationary IDF curves dictates the following steps: 1. Go directly to existing downscaled Datasets that could show smaller biases in historical extremes, such as: LAGO will provide im m ediate analysis & suggestions on the dataset selection for Broward County consideration and final decision Non-stationarity continue in next slide
15 2. Br ie f Re vie w of Pr oje c t Appr oac h 5. How we intend to address non-stationarity related to development of the IDF Curves for Future conditions? 2. Lago, in consultation with Broward, will decide which percentiles and which Representative Concentration Pathways’s of downscaled model predictions to consider in the analysis SFWMD concerned with overall 5 th -50 th -95 th L AGO c o unts with a c ode in “R” to e ffe c tive ly a ddre ss ste ps 1 & 2 3. Apply a quantile mapping technique for temporally downscaling extremes for durations shorter than 1 day similar to one used by Tetratech (2015) 4. Use Carney (2016) method to increase confidence in most extreme events (100-500 year frequencies) to correct biases in the Generalized Extreme Value shape parameter. Note: IDF curves are desired to be projected to year 2100, but most of the downscaled model products end in the year 2100. Therefore, a 40-year period analysis would be centered around the year 2080. Non-stationarity continue in next slide
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