IDF World Dairy Summit, Vilnius, Lithuania September 22nd, 2015 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

IDF World Dairy Summit, Vilnius, Lithuania September 22nd, 2015

 Special thanks to:  ZNL  CN  IDF National Committees and other national contributors  And our 2015 partner

Recent and current World Dairy Situation  2014: start of a market turnaround  Abundant milk deliveries which led to further dairy output growth  Solid increase of World dairy trade  Fall of dairy prices almost continuously until 2015  Record farm-gate milk prices in 2014 before serious downturn  World dairy consumption estimated at 110.7 kg per capita

Milk production mln tonnes Oceania + 3.3% Other Africa 5% Europe 2014 5% Asia 9% 28% 2013 South America 2012 11% North 2010 and Central EU 28 2005 America 24% 18% 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 Cow milk Buffalo milk Other milk 2014: 802 mln tonnes + 1.5 to 2% per year 2016: 830 mln tonnes Source: CNIEL, ZuivelNL, FAO, IDF National Committees, national statistics.

Dairy product output Evolution of milk deliveries 2013/2014 <-1% +1% to +3% -1% to +1% >+3% Source: CNIEL, ZuivelNL, FAO, IDF National Committees, national statistics.

Dairy product output Butter/-oil Cheese mln tonnes mln tonnes +2.6% +3.4% 11 20 +1.7% +2.0% +3.8% +2.3% +4.6% +1.2% 10 19 9 18 19,6 10,4 19,1 8 10,1 17 9,9 18,8 9,5 18,4 9,1 18,2 7 16 6 15 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SMP WMP mln tonnes mln tonnes 6 6 +6.0% +15.1% +2.5% +1.0% +8.9% 5 5 +5.2% -0.3% +7.7% 4 4 3 3 5,1 4,8 4,8 4,8 4,7 4,2 4,2 4,3 4,0 3,7 2 2 1 1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: CNIEL, ZuivelNL, FAO, IDF National Committees, national statistics.

Industry leaders Company Country Dairy turnover 2014 (bln USD) 2013-2014 1 Lactalis FR 21.9 + 3% 2 Fonterra NZ 18.7 + 24% + 3 3 Nestlé CH 18.3 - 2% 4 DFA + 3 US 17.9 + 40% 5 FrieslandCampina NL 15.0 - 1% Source: CNIEL, company reports, international press. 6 Danone FR 14.8 - 6% 7 Arla Foods DK 14.1 + 7% 8 Dean Foods US 9.5 + 6% 9 Saputo CA 9.4 + 7% 10 Yili CN 8.8 + 14% 11 Mengniu CN 8.1 + 15% 12 Sodiaal FR 7.2 + 17% + 2 13 DMK DE 7.0 - 0% 14 Savencia FR 6.1 + 4% + 2 15 Meiji Dairies JP 5.8 - 9% 16 Morinaga Milk Industry JP 5.4 - 9% 17 Land O'Lakes US 5.1 + 13% + 2 18 Schreiber US 5.0 19 Müller DE 4.9 20 Glanbia Plc IE 4.7 + 7% 21 Megmik Snow Brand JP 4.3 - 7% 22 Agropur CA 4.2 + 14% + 1 23 Kraft Foods US 4.1 + 4% 24 Emmi CH 3.7 + 5% 25 Bel FR 3.7 + 2%

Dairy consumption Other 2% SMP WMP 4% 2% 3% 6% 4% Central 9% America Oceania 13% Cheese Africa 13% 7.2 billion South Informal 28% 46% America North Butter 15% America Europe Fresh milk and dairy 110.7 Asia products 38% kg/capita/ 17% year Source: CNIEL, ZuivelNL, FAO, IDF National Committees, national statistics.

Dairy consumption Annual growth rates of total consumption between 2014 and 2024 1 000 tonnes milk equivalent 1000 800 +3.0% CAGR +2.2% CAGR 600 +0.9% CAGR 400 +4.5% CAGR 200 0 WORLD Developed Countries Developing Countries Least Advanced Countries Source: CNIEL, ZuivelNL, OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015.

Trade Export share development of key exporters 2000-2014 (in milk equivalents) 19% New Zealand 28% 39% EU 26% 5% USA 14% 16% Australia 6% 2% Belarus 4% 3% Argentina 3% 16% Rest of world 19% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2000 2014 Source: ZuivelNL, Comtrade.

Trade World trade volume development: 2000-2016 mln tonnes + 4% - 0.7% + 6% 75 60 45 68,6 66,5 66,0 62,7 30 52,8 43,9 38,2 15 0 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: ZuivelNL, European Commission.

Trade Cheese Switzerland +4% +13% Russia -48% +20% Belarus EU South USA +5% Korea Japan China Saud i +40% +0% Arabia +80% Mexico -11% +30% -13% +7% +44% Philippines +24% +15% +33% +8% Australia +47% New Zealand Source: ZuivelNL, Comtrade.

Trade Butter and butteroil -36% Russia +4% Belarus EU USA +122% China Iran Saud i Egypt Arabia -20% +56% -12% +28% +6% Australi - New Zealand Source: ZuivelNL, Comtrade.

Trade Skim milk powder Russia -5% +32% Belarus EU USA China +102% +146% Saudi -12% +11% -1% Arabia Mexico Algeri a Egyp +25% -22% Philippines Malaysia Vietnam Nigeria -10% +192% +53% +60% -7% +23% Indonesia +10% -20% Australia -19% -4% Singapore +7% New Zealand +25 Source: ZuivelNL, Comtrade.

Trade Whole milk powder EU +14% -4% China Libanon U.A.E . Algeria +136% -6% -7% Oman -44% Sri Lanka Venezuela Nigeria Malaysia -26% -3% Brazil +9% +2% Angola +48% +62% -21% Australia -21% +190% Uruguay +1% Argentina +9% Singapore New Zealand Source: ZuivelNL, Comtrade.

Dairy prices Variations of dairy prices between 2001-2006 and 2007-2015 (FOB Oceania) USD per tonne 5.700 4.700 3.700 2.700 1.700 700 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Cheddar Butter SMP WMP Source: USDA.

Farmgate milk prices Annual producer prices for milk in the EU in NZ (Fonterra) EUR/100 kg NZD/kg MS 50 10 4.65 38.62 40 8 30 6 20 4 10 2 0 0 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 And in the US (Class III) USD/cwt 22.34 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: LTO International Milk Price Comparison.

Farmgate milk prices Monthly evolution of milk prices in the EU And in the US EUR/100 kg USD/cwt 45 25 42 23 39 21 36 19 33 17 30 15 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr May June Aug Sep Oct Dec Jan July Nov 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Source: LTO International Milk Price Comparison.

 2015  Milk volumes weighing on market  Inventories building up  Strong fall in dairy prices  And beyond  Dairy price recovery: now?  Necessity to adjust milk output + for buyers comeback

 Thank you very much and…  … Order your copy now !