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Sir Gordon Conway Professor of International Development, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sir Gordon Conway Professor of International Development, Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College London Agropolis International, Montpellier, France September 10th 2013


  1. Sir Gordon Conway Professor of International Development, Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College London Agropolis International, Montpellier, France September 10th 2013

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  3. We Face 3 Interconnected Challenges • Increasing food prices and recurring food price spikes • About 1 billion people (1 in 6 of the world’s population) are chronically hungry population) are chronically hungry • We have to increase food production by 60- 100% by 2050

  4. IMF Food Prices

  5. 1 in 3 children under 5 are malnourished – 180 million children globally They are underheight and suffer from stunted • development and possible blindness and death Stunting linked to over 3.5 m deaths of under fives •

  6. Challenges to feeding the world by 2050 Demand Supply • Population Growth • Rising fuel and fertiliser prices • Changing Diets • Changing Diets • Climate change • Biofuel Demand • Land and water scarcity

  7. Rise in Meat Consumption ����������������������� ���������������������� Source: World Bank, 2010. World Development Indicators �����������������

  8. World Fertiliser Prices

  9. Changing Climate in Africa • More than 5% reduction in • Average Annual Max Temp > 30 C length of growing period Source: Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics

  10. Arable land is in short supply

  11. We have to intensify

  12. Mrs. Namarunda A single mother farming a hillside farming a hillside in western Kenya

  13. Insecure Farm 3 Weeds Weeds Pests & Pests & Diseases Diseases 2 Drought Drought Survival line 1 1 2 3 4 Months

  14. A Secure Farm Weeds Weeds 3 Pests & Pests & diseases diseases Soil Drought Drought Fertility 2 >2 t/ha Resilient Crops Resilient Crops Actual harvest Survival line 1 Months 1 2 3 4

  15. Sustainable Intensification • There is not much more new arable land available and water is scarce • We have to intensify: “More with Less” • Greater productivity but minimised environmental footprint

  16. Sustainable Intensification • Increased production, income, nutrition • On the same amount, or less, of land and water • With efficient and prudent use of inputs • Minimising emissions of Greenhouse Gases • While increasing natural capital & environmental services • Strengthening resilience • Reducing environmental impact

  17. A Model of Sustainable Intensification

  18. Relevance of Sustainable Intensification • Developed Countries • Emerging Countries • Least developed countries • All technologies as appropriate: • All technologies as appropriate: • Traditional • Intermediate • Conventional • New platform

  19. Precision Farming (UK) GPS Soil Sampling Phosphorus Deficiency http://www.willingtoncropservices.co.uk/ Harper Adams University

  20. Precision Farming (Africa) Microdosing in Niger

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  22. Multiple Dimensions for Innovation • Focussing on multiple benefits • Engagement with multiple partners • Utilisation of multiple approaches • Working on multiple scales

  23. Multiple Benefits

  24. Key Partners in Agricultural Innovation • International Agricultural Research Centres • National Agricultural Research Systems • Universities • Universities • Private sector • NGOs • Farmers

  25. Multiple Approaches • Agro-ecology • Genetics • Genetics • Socio-economics

  26. Ecological Intensification • Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices, such as: • Agroforestry • Agroforestry • Integrated Pest Management • Organic farming

  27. 2-4 tonnes C /ha

  28. No-Till Agriculture in the UK (Thurlby Grange in Lincolnshire) Benefits: • 8.75 to 10 ton/ha wheat • Crop establishment cost £245- £36/ ha £245- £36/ ha • Fuel use 96 to 43 l/ha • No wind erosion • No moisture stress • Elimination of black grass http://www.taa.org.uk/assets/pubs/Tony%20Reynolds%20v2%20Landwards%20Paper.pdf

  29. Conservation Farming in Zambia

  30. Genetic Intensification - Modern Plant Breeding • Plants more nutritious: • carbohydrate and protein • micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc) • Plants more resilient to: • pests and diseases • pests and diseases • climate change • Plants more efficient at: • converting sunlight to food • taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere • using water

  31. Nutritive Foods #�����$�������� ������� ������� �"������������ %���� &��������

  32. The New Rices for Africa (NERICAs) '�����(����

  33. A Field in Uganda

  34. Hybrid Maize in Ethiopia

  35. Chaperone Genes for Drought Tolerance • Genes from Bacterial RNA that help to repair misfolded proteins resulting from stress • Plants rapidly recover • Plants rapidly recover • No yield penalty when stress free • In African field trials

  36. Bananas Resistant to Wilt in Uganda • $500 million losses a year in Uganda • Academia Sinica provided sweet pepper gene sweet pepper gene • Successfully transferred to bananas • In Ugandan field trials • Entirely government funded

  37. Socio-economic intensification Markets

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  39. Input Markets

  40. Certified Seed +�������������

  41. Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

  42. Multiple Scales • Region – Intra-regional trade • Country – Ethiopian Commodity Exchange • Landscape – Watershed planning • District – Farmer Field Schools • Community – Cooperative marketing • Farm – Zai

  43. Zai pits in Burkina Faso http://ffa.kenyafoodsecurity.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=92:soil-bund- fanya-chini-&catid=25:the-project&Itemid=154

  44. Cooperative marketing ������������������� • ���)�������� • �������&��*� • �������������� • #�����"��� •

  45. Farmer Field Schools

  46. Sustainable Landscapes Ethiopia Sussex, UK

  47. Promoting Intraregional Food Trade London Evening Post

  48. Key Drivers of Going to Scale ? • Farmer Associations • Markets • Markets • ICT

  49. An Agenda for Innovation • We believe that Innovation for Sustainable Intensification is going to be essential if food security is to be achieved in Africa. • The culture and institutions for innovation in Africa - what changes are needed? • What policies do we need to support innovation?

  50. An Agenda for Innovation • Which sources of innovation are the most likely to deliver multiple benefits including resilience and sustainability? • Is building multiple benefits on the basis of an initial innovation the best way to proceed? • If we reduce costly and damaging inputs how do we • If we reduce costly and damaging inputs how do we increase yields? • Can we build in resilience without having to wait for innovations to break down? • Some innovations may also increase natural capital or reduce greenhouse gas emissions but often this is serendipitous.

  51. An Agenda for Innovation • Farmers are great innovators - how can their innovations be brought to scale, to the community, district, nation and the world? • Going to scale involves an appropriate enabling environment and the participation of many stakeholders. environment and the participation of many stakeholders. • Finally we need to engage in a participatory learning agenda involving African and donor governments, the private sector , NGOs and farmers themselves.

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