Sector- -Based Workshop Based Workshop Sector Land Use and Local Initiatives Land Use and Local Initiatives Land Use and Local Initiatives Jeff Weir Jeff Weir Annmarie Mora Mora Annmarie California Air Resources Board California Air Resources Board December 14, 2007 December 14, 2007 1
Overview Overview • Transportation – Characteristics – Reduction strategies – ‘Action’ & ‘Enabling’ Measures • Municipal Operations – Characteristics – Reduction strategies – ‘Action’ & ‘Enabling’ Measures – Green buildings 2
Transportation Emissions Transportation Emissions Passenger cars and heavy-duty trucks: 1990 Baseline Emissions: 138 MMTCO2E 2004 Baseline Emissions: 172 MMTCO2E Other Transportation 2% 2020 Preliminary Forecasted Emissions: 216 MMTCO2E Electric Power 25% Cars & Trucks 36% Industrial 20% Agriculture Others 9% 6% *ARB GHG Inventory, 2004 Baseline Data 3
On-Road Transportation Sources On-Road Transportation Sources Passenger Vehicles Passenger 136 MMTCO2E Vehicles 79% Heavy Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty 36 MMTCO2E Vehicles 21% ARB GHG Inventory, 2004 Baseline Data ARB GHG Inventory, 2004 Baseline Data 4
Transportation GHG Transportation GHG Transportation GHG Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Fuels Fuels Technology Use Technology Use Transp. Transp. Transp. GHG GHG GHG GHG = F F F VMT = VMT , , GHG GHG , , GHG Mile Gallon Mile Gallon Transp. & Transp. & AB 1493 Low-Carbon AB 1493 Low-Carbon Land Use Land Use Regulation Fuel Standard Regulation Fuel Standard Strategies Strategies 5
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): Trends Trends • Billions in transportation investment • Existing land use patterns and driving behavior • Vehicle miles traveled per capita projected to continue growing Statewide Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita 27.00 26.00 VMT per Person 25.00 24.00 23.00 22.00 21.00 20.00 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 6
VMT Reduction: VMT Reduction: It Matters for Climate Change It Matters for Climate Change ������������������������������������������� Relative change from 1990 1.2 CO2 1.0 CO2 0.8 0.6 Smog-forming 0.4 ROG + NOx ROG+NOx 0.2 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: EMFAC 7
Historical and Projected Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) GHG Emissions 200% VMT 190% 180% 170% Percent of 1990 160% GHG Emissions 150% GHG Emissions 140% with AB 1493 130% 120% GHG Emissions 110% with AB 1493 100% and LCFS 90% 80% 2020 2030 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2022 2024 2026 2028 2032 8
Drivers of VMT Reduction Drivers of VMT Reduction Integrated Strategies Land Use Density Diversity Alternate Mode Design Infrastructure Destinations Transit Transportation Carpool/Vanpool Conservation Bike Pricing Signals Walk Education Incentives to drive less Cost per mile TDM Programs Cost per gallon Parking costs 9
Potential VMT Impacts Potential VMT Impacts Potential VMT Impacts of Land Use Strategies of Land Use Strategies of Land Use Strategies Community type Household VMT/year Auto-oriented 28,000 + Suburban Smarter Growth 17,000 – 23,000 Surburban Urban 10,000 – 16,000 10
Land Use: Land Use: An Important Long-Term Strategy An Important Long-Term Strategy Statewide Projected Population and VMT Growth 2010-2040 60% 50% 40% Population 30% Avg. Daily VMT 20% 10% 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 Population: By 2020 (+13%). By 2040 (+39%). Population: By 2020 (+13%). By 2040 (+39%). Land use strategies mostly impact new growth. Land use strategies mostly impact new growth. 11
Regional Impacts Modeled Regional Impacts Modeled Regional Impacts Modeled Sacramento Region -- 2050 Sacramento Region -- 2050 Parameter Base Case 2050 Adopted Plan 2050 Difference VMT per household per 12.3 fewer miles per day (excludes 47.2 34.9 household per day, a commercial vehicles) 25% reduction People Living in Areas 27% increase with Good Mix of Jobs 26% 53% and Housing Growth Near Transit 5% New Jobs 41% New Jobs 36% more new jobs and 2% New 38% New Housing homes near transit Housing Additional Urbanized 666 square miles 304 square miles 362 fewer square miles Land urbanized Daily Vehicle Minutes of 14 fewer minutes per day Travel (per 81 minutes 67 minutes household/day) Per Capita CO2 and PM 15% less than the Base Set at 100% 85% of Base Case Emissions from vehicles Case per capita 12 Source: SACOG, Regional Blueprint Program, 2005 Source: SACOG, Regional Blueprint Program, 2005
VMT Reduction and Efficient VMT VMT Reduction and Efficient VMT • Per capita VMT Reduction – A good surrogate for reducing GHGs – Effective performance measure for planning • Efficient VMT – Speed affects GHG emissions – Reduce extreme congestion through intelligent transportation systems, other approaches – Research emphasizes need to limit adding lane miles 13
Existing Approaches Existing Approaches • Consensus: Fundamental Change Needed • Current actions: – Blueprint Planning Process – Integrated Land Use and Transportation Planning – Attorney General’s CEQA Actions – OPR and CEQA Guidelines (SB 97) – Proposed Legislation (SB 375) – General Plans Incorporating Climate Change 14
What We’ve Heard What We’ve Heard • California Transportation Commission (CTC) Regional Transportation Planning (RTP) Guidelines Work Group • Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) / Regional Transportation Planning Agencies (RTPAs) • Energy Commission Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) 15
CTC RTP Guidelines CTC RTP Guidelines CTC RTP Guidelines Work Group Work Group Work Group • Regional GHG reduction strategy • VMT per capita and measurable performance measures – Transportation investment – Land use strategies – Pricing signals • Move toward better modeling 16
MPOs / / RTPAs RTPAs MPOs MPOs / RTPAs • Ready to help • Good planning vital – Bay Area Smart Growth – Sacramento Region Blueprint – San Diego Regional Planning – Southern California Compass (2% Strategy) – SJV Valley Blueprint Planning Process • Land use (locals), Pricing (legislature) 17
Energy Commission’ ’s s Energy Commission Energy Commission’s IEPR Report IEPR Report IEPR Report • Mitigating Energy Needs with Smarter Growth -- Recommendations – Statewide growth plan – GHG levels to guide local planning – Local plans to reduce GHGs – State technical and financial assistance – Legislation recommendations 18
Land Use Subgroup of CAT Land Use Subgroup of CAT (LUSCAT) (LUSCAT) • State interagency team: CEC HCD ARB Cal/EPA IWMB PUC Caltrans OPR Water Board • Coordinate the State’s Climate Change land use strategies • 2008 CAT Report • Stakeholder Input - Advisory Group • Tool and Resources 19
LUSCAT Stakeholders’ Initial Input LUSCAT Stakeholders’ Initial Input • Housing Element and Housing Finance • CEQA and General Plan Guideline Update • State Agency Climate Change Guidelines • Energy Aware Planning Guide Update • Regional Transportation Plan Guideline Update • Regional Blueprint Planning • GHG criteria for Grant Programs 20
Potential Emission Reduction Potential Emission Reduction Measures Measures Action Enabling Action Action Enabling Measures Policies Measures Measures Policies Enhance and expand Align federal/state/local Enhance and expand Align federal/state/local transit funding mechanisms transit funding mechanisms Infill development; CEQA relief; incentives Infill development; CEQA relief; incentives TOD; Smart growth for Blueprint and TOD; Smart growth for Blueprint and Blueprint implementation Blueprint implementation 21
Perspective on Approaches Perspective on Approaches Incentives Incentives Incentives Voluntary Actions CEQA relief Voluntary Actions CEQA relief Tax breaks Transit, bike, walk Tax breaks Transit, bike, walk infrastructure infrastructure Urban limit lines Mandatory regional Urban limit lines Mandatory regional and local targets and local targets CEQA thresholds CEQA thresholds Requirements Requirements Requirements 22
Municipal Operations Municipal Operations 23
Municipal Operations GHG Sources Municipal Operations GHG Sources • Government Building and Facility Energy Use • Government Fleet Vehicles • Water Treatment and Landfill Operations • Urban Forestry • Port/Airport Operations • Other Operations 24
GHG Emission Reduction GHG Emission Reduction Opportunities Opportunities • Energy Conservation and Efficiency • Waste Reduction • Clean Energy Use • Storing and Offsetting Carbon Emissions • Promoting Community and Individual Action 25
Current Activities Current Activities • ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability • US Conference of Mayors – Climate Protection Agreement • Institute for Local Government - California Climate Action Network • LUSCAT • CCAR Local Government Protocol 26
Recommend
More recommend
