Moving to low carbon transport in Ireland Prof Brian Caulfield Centre for Transport Research, Dept of Civil Structural and Environmental Engineering
Presentation Overview • Problem setting • What would a low carbon transport future look like • Examples of emission reductions • Barriers to change • International examples • The role of the State Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Problem setting The number of cars in Ireland is predicted to increase from approx. 2 million in 2016 to over 3 million in 2050. The demand for transport is increasing as our economy recovers. Congestion levels are rising again in our towns and cities. The data just presented by the National Transport Authority demonstrates the significance of the problems we face. Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Problem setting (2) Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Problem setting (3) Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Problem setting (4) Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Problem setting (6) Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Transport – a space problem Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Transport – a space problem Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Transport – aviation emissions We cannot ignore the aviation sector A return flight from Dublin to London = 280kg of CO2 This is similar to driving 1,400 km in a petrol car These emissions need to be factored into transport solutions Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Reducing transport emissions Typically, there are two solutions suggested achieve a low carbon transport network. 1. Change how we fuel our transport: electrification of our vehicles, improving vehicle technologies and the use of bio- fuels. 2. Reduce our reliance on private vehicles: shifts towards public transport, shared car usage, walking and cycling. Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
What would a low carbon transport model look like It is difficult to predict what our transport future will look like but the following will be at the centre of our plans for the future: - Public transport will take up a greater role moving the majority of people in our urban areas Walking and cycling will become more prominent – taking up a - large share of short trips - Trips that take place using private vehicles would be done with low emission vehicles Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
What are the wider economic benefits Investment in transport has a number of wider economic benefits: - Health benefits - Social inclusion - Reductions in transport poverty - Access to new opportunities (education and employment) - More time for other activities Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
What about the future? Many of the examples given today so far relate to “traditional” transport modes. I want to discuss three possible scenarios that are currently being examined in transportation science: 1. Changing car ownership models 2. Autonomous and connected vehicles 3. Mobility as a service (MaaS) Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Changing car ownership models How we own cars in the future will look very different from today. As already stated private car ownership is very wasteful. Fewer learner permits being taken up - in 2008, 52,000 17-20 year olds took up learner permits compared to 35,000 in 2016 . The shared economy has come up with new ideas in this field. Netflix for cars: The BOOK Scheme by Cadillac Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Autonomous and Connected Vehicles Much attention in the media and in research is now focused upon autonomous and connected vehicles. These vehicles may be able to reduce congestion and emissions. Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is a good example of how the shared economy works in the transport sector. MaaS is an account based system. Users pay for all of their mobility usage based on the number of trips used - this would include bus, rail, taxi etc Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
So how do we reduce emissions? We have to reduce emissions in the transport sector. Against a backdrop of increased demand and increased emissions, this is increasingly difficult. None of the options on the table are easy or cheap! - Public transport: will result in emissions reductions if modal shift is from private cars to public transport. Our experience with the Luas showed a shift from bus to Luas. - Re-fuel public transport: changing our fuels on public transport to bio-fuels and electrification will result in lower emissions. - Promotion of cycling and walking: This modal shift will result in reductions in emissions and result in health benefits. Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
So how do we reduce emissions? Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
So how do we reduce emissions? - Electric Vehicles: the electrification of private vehicles will result in a decrease in emissions. However, the extent of the challenge needs to be appreciated. - In 2016, 140,000 new private cars were sold. Only 392 were electric. The overall private car fleet in 2016 was approximately 2 million. - The cost of promoting this solution is high given the very slow uptake in electric vehicles in Ireland. Will a natural increase in the electric vehicle market occur? So is the cost investment worth it? Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
So how do we reduce emissions? 580k EV’s 346k EV’s 231k EV’s Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Barriers to change The main barriers to reducing emissions in this sector: - The high cost and long planning time for public transport - Reducing car usage - Spatial configuration of our country - Acceptance of electric vehicles Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
International examples – Public Transport Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
International examples – Behaviour Change Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
International examples – Spatial Configuration Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Electric Vehicle Acceptance Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
The role of the State 1. Funding the construction of Public Transport 2. The evaluation of transport projects needs to change 3. Electric vehicle funding: fund purchasing cars or charging infrastructure 4. Pilot schemes 5. Supporting behavioural change schemes Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
To conclude No easy solutions – big decisions need to be made Planning into the future means embracing how technology can ease the transition to low carbon transport We need to fully appreciate how transport and land use planning are linked and how our spatial structure is a large barrier The prudence of investing in electric vehicles needs to be fully explored Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
To conclude All of the solutions discussed will make our country Greener, Healthier, Cleaner, Connected and Efficient. Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin
Thank You Email: brian.caulfield@tcd.ie
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