School Places Planning Felicity Roe, Assistant Director, Childrens Services 11 th September 2013
School places forecasting g p
School places forecasting g p
School places forecasting p g E = mc 2
Factors influencing demand
Factors influencing supply pp y g
Heather’s summer eat e s su e • Establishing data sources Establishing data sources • Office of National Statistics (ONS) • 2011 Census 2011 Census • IOW school information system • Health data Health data • Housing development plans and starts timelines • Mapping • Running Forecasting model Running Forecasting model
Isle of Wight Population: Census 2011 g p • The population of the Isle of Wight has grown by 5,540 people since 2001 and is now 138,270 • The number of households has risen by 5060 from 128 650 in 2001 to 133 710 in 2011 128,650 in 2001 to 133,710 in 2011 • The average household size declined from 2.24 in The average household size declined from 2.24 in 2001 to 2.20 in 2011
Isle of Wight: Census 2011 The Population of the The Population of the Isle of Wight is…. Ageing
Looking towards the future…
Number of Live Births: Isle of Wight Trend and Projected Live Births 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 Projected Live Births Projected Live Births 1300 1200 1100 Live Births 1000 900 800 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: ONS Births Database Sources: ONS Births Database Notes: Projections using 2002 as a Baseline Year - Linear Trends This data is a projection based on regression linear formulas and does not take into account future migration or amount of women at birthing age.
Birth Data vs Forecasts 1,450 1,400 1,350 en Childre 1,300 Birth YrR 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Forecast Point Forecast Point
Hampshire’s School Places Forecasting Model: p g • Birth Data – small area population forecast • Housing – ‘ yield ’ from new developments • Year on Year movement – (mostly transfers) • Sixth Forms
Primary Forecasting
Primary Forecasting Results
Primary Forecasting Results Primary Across the Isle of Wight
Cowes Year R: Cowes NoR:
Primary Pressures across the years…
Primary to Secondary Transition - 2% Transitional Drop Out
Secondary Forecasting Results
Secondary Forecasting Results
Next steps p • School Cluster Meetings 25 th September 2013 • 27 th September 2013 • 30 th September 2013 th • 8 th October 2013 • • Refining the Forecasting Model & Datasets – November 2013 • Beginning to make decisions – Early 2014
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