[PDF] - Presentation to the Pelagic RAC Presentation to the Pelagic RAC PDF Document

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Presentation to the Pelagic RAC

Presentation to the Pelagic RAC Working Groups I and II Working Groups I and II

6 6th

th October 2011

October 2011 West Indisch Huis, West Indisch Huis, Amsterdam, Netherlands Amsterdam, Netherlands

ICES’ advice for 2012

Released on the ICES’ web-site on 30th

September 2011

Advice released concerns widely distributed and

migratory stocks: – Norwegian spring-spawning herring, Northeast Atlantic mackerel, blue whiting, horse mackerel, boarfish, grey and red gurnard, striped red mullet and seabass

Advice released concerns North Sea horse

mackerel and for two pelagic redfish stocks in the Iceland and East Greenland area

ICES’ advice for 2012

Developed through a process:

Begins with an assessment of the status of the fish

stocks involving scientists from the ecoregion’s countries

The assessments are reviewed by experts not involved

with the assessments

Draft advice is developed based on this reviewed

assessment by scientists from the ecoregion’s countries and the reviewers

Advice is approved by the ICES’ Advisory Committee

(ACOM):

– constituted by one scientist from each of the 20 ICES’ member countries plus a chair and four vice-chairs

ICES’ advice process - general

Expert Group (EG)

Assessment of the status of the fish stocks (national scientists)

Review Group (RG)

Review the work carried out by the EG; quality assurance and peer review (scientists independent of the EG)

Advisory Drafting Group (ADG)

Draft the advice based on the reviewed assessments (scientists and reviewers)

Advisory Committee (ACOM)

Approve draft advice - consistency assurance (1 scientist from each of the 20 ICES’ member countries + chair and 4 vice-chairs)

Benchmark workshops

ICES’ advice

ICES’ advice process - general

ICES has developed a framework for MSY-based advice:

Described in the introduction to the advisory report and

available from the ICES’ web-site.

MSY framework is based on an MSY fishing mortality

and a biomass limit that triggers additional caution in the advised exploitation.

Framework encompasses the Precautionary Approach

that has been the basis for previous ICES’ advice.

Letter 21st April 2010 from Norway: asking ICES to

provide advice for 2011 according to agreed management plans - until a revision of these management plans to incorporate the MSY criterion has been agreed and adopted

ICES’ advice – MSY framework

6

New template New template

Two-pager Strictly simple information for managers Supporting information Background to the two- pager

SLIDE 2

7

The advice The stock status Management plans (MGT)

Biology Environment Fisheries

where relevant for advice/management

Two Two-

pager

pager

Quality considerations

and scientific basis

8

Standard graphs

Two Two-

pager

pager

Historical plot

9

Reference points

Forecast table

Describe MSY/PA/MGT plan options Explanation of MGT plan

Supporting Information Supporting Information

Additional considerations Sources Maps Stock/Mgt

10

Remaining plots

Historic advice

Catch / landings

Supporting Information Supporting Information

Assessment summary

11

New in 2011 New in 2011…

One advice line:

Management plan result

(if precautionary AND agreed by all) Otherwise: MSY result

12

SLIDE 3

Working Group I: Working Group I:

Northeast Atlantic herring

Northeast Atlantic herring

Northeast Atlantic mackerel

Northeast Atlantic mackerel

ICES’ advice for 2012

Norwegian spring-spawning Herring

(benchmarked in 2008) (new maturity-at-age in 2010)

1999: Long-term management plan agreed by EU, Faroe

Islands, Iceland, Norway and Russia

ICES considers the agreed MP to be precautionary

ICES’ advice for 2012

Norwegian spring-spawning herring

Fishing mortality during 2008, 2009 and 2010 estimated at ~Fpa (=FMSY) Year-classes since 2005 have been weak

ICES’ advice for 2012

500 1000 1500 2000 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Landings in 1000 t

Landings

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 F weighted (ages 5-14)

Fishing Mortality

F MP Fpa FMSY 100 200 300 400 500 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Recruitment in billions

Recruitment (age 0)

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 SSB in 1000 t

Spawning Stock Biomass

SSB MP Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger

No major issues with the quality of the assessment and the input data. Previous assessments have shown evidence of retrospective patterns, but this appears to be no longer the case. Historical stock trends

Norwegian spring-spawning herring

ICES’ advice for 2012

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1995 2000 2005 2010 SSB ('000 tonnes) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fishing mortality: 5-14 100 200 300 400 500 600 1995 2000 2005 2010 Billions

Recruitment. Age: 0

ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012

Norwegian spring-spawning herring

Advice for 2012: ICES advises on the basis of the EU, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and Russia management plan that landings in 2012 should be no more than 833 000 t.

SLIDE 4

Northeast Atlantic mackerel

(benchmarked in 2007)

Management plan (agreed in 2008)
ICES considers the MP to be precautionary (TAC=total

removals from the stock)

No international agreement on TACs for 2010 and 2011

ICES’ advice for 2012

Northeast Atlantic mackerel

F in 2010 (=0.26) above Fpa and FMSY SSB above Bpa and MSY Btrigger 2007 and 2008 year-classes about average

ICES’ advice for 2012

(Triennial) Egg surveys are the only fisheries independent data in the

assessment – 2007 and 2010 revised upward by +12% and +4%, respectively.

Age composition of the stock from the landings only.

200 400 600 800 1000 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Landings in 1000 t

Landings

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 F(ages 4-8)

Fishing Mortality

F MP Flim Fpa FMSY 2 4 6 8 10 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Recruitment in billions

Recruitment (age 0)

1000 2000 3000 4000 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 SSB in 1000 t

Spawning Stock Biomass

SSB MP Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger

Historical stock trends Perception of the stock remains relatively unchanged: – robust estimation of the trend and magnitude of F, and the trend in SSB

Northeast Atlantic mackerel

ICES’ advice for 2012

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1995 2000 2005 2010 SSB ('000 tonnes) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fishing mortality: 4-8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1995 2000 2005 2010 Billions

Recruitment. Age: 0

ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012

Northeast Atlantic mackerel

Advice for 2012: ICES advises on the basis of the Norway, Faroe Islands, and EU management plan that catches in 2012 should be between 586 000 t and 639 000 t.

PRAC meeting: PRAC meeting:

Working Group I Working Group I

Comments and questions Comments and questions

ICES’ advice for 2012

SLIDE 5

Working Group II: Working Group II:

Horse mackerel

Horse mackerel

Blue whiting

Blue whiting

Boarfish

Boarfish

ICES’ advice for 2012

Western horse mackerel

2007: Management plan based on the triennial egg

survey was proposed by the Pelagic RAC

ICES considers the MP to be precautionary in the short-

term

ICES’ advice for 2012

Western horse mackerel

Fishing mortality has been increasing since 2006 and is now at ~FMSY Year-classes since 2004 have been weak

ICES’ advice for 2012

Historical retrospective pattern, especially in the middle part of the time series, with a clear tendency to underestimate F and over- estimate SSB. The update assessment shows a moderate consistency in terms of SSB, F and R. Historical stock trends

Western horse mackerel

ICES’ advice for 2012

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 1995 2000 2005 2010 SSB ('000 tonnes) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fishing mortality: 1-10 5 10 15 20 25 30 1995 2000 2005 2010 Billions

Recruitment. Age: 0

ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012

Western horse mackerel

Advice for 2012: ICES advises on the basis of the MSY approach that catches in 2012 should be no more than 211 000 t.

SLIDE 6

Management plan (2008)
ICES considers the MP to be precautionary

Blue whiting (benchmark workshop for 2012)

ICES’ advice for 2012

Blue whiting

Rapid reduction in the SSB due to poor recruitment Stock just above Bpa and MSY Btrigger

ICES’ advice for 2012

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Landings in 1000 t

Landings

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 F(ages 3-7)

Fishing Mortality

Fmp Flim Fpa FMSY 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Recruitment in millions

Recruitment (age 1)

2000 4000 6000 8000 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 SSB in 1000 t

Spawning Stock Biomass

SSBmp Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger

Significant changes in the perception of the magnitude of the SSB and F compared to last year’s assessment. Consistent trend of a declining stock, in both the assessment and in the surveys (IBWSS survey excluding 2010). Historical stock trends

Blue whiting

ICES’ advice for 2012

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 1995 2000 2005 2010 SSB ('000 tonnes) 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fishing mortality: 3-7 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1995 2000 2005 2010 Billions

Recruitment. Age: 1

ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012

Blue whiting

Advice for 2012: ICES advises on the basis of the management plan agreed by Norway, the EU, the Faroe Islands, and Iceland, and endorsed by NEAFC that catches in 2012 should be no more than 391 000 t.

Boarfish – Landings have increased rapidly during 2008 , 2009 and 2010, reaching ~140 kt in 2010 – Stock is relatively large and widely distributed – Preliminary information on exploitation (< M) – Survey data suggests that recruitment has increased since 2005

ICES’ advice for 2012

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Landings ('000 tonnes)

Landings

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