Presentation to the Pelagic RAC Presentation to the Pelagic RAC - PDF document

ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012 • Released on the ICES’ web-site on 30 th Presentation to the Pelagic RAC Presentation to the Pelagic RAC September 2011 Working Groups I and II Working Groups I and II • Advice released concerns widely distributed and migratory stocks: – Norwegian spring-spawning herring, th October 2011 6 th October 2011 6 Northeast Atlantic mackerel, blue whiting, West Indisch Huis, West Indisch Huis, horse mackerel, boarfish, grey and red gurnard, striped red mullet and seabass Amsterdam, Netherlands Amsterdam, Netherlands • Advice released concerns North Sea horse mackerel and for two pelagic redfish stocks in ��������������� the Iceland and East Greenland area ���������������� ICES’ advice process - general ICES’ advice process - general Expert Group (EG) Benchmark Assessment of the status of Developed through a process: workshops the fish stocks ( national scientists ) • Begins with an assessment of the status of the fish stocks involving scientists from the ecoregion’s Review Group (RG) countries Review the work carried out by the EG; quality assurance and peer review • The assessments are reviewed by experts not involved ( scientists independent of the EG ) with the assessments • Draft advice is developed based on this reviewed assessment by scientists from the ecoregion’s countries Advisory Drafting Group (ADG) and the reviewers Draft the advice based on the reviewed assessments ( scientists and reviewers ) • Advice is approved by the ICES’ Advisory Committee (ACOM): – constituted by one scientist from each of the 20 ICES’ member Advisory Committee (ACOM) ICES’ countries plus a chair and four vice-chairs Approve draft advice - consistency assurance advice ( 1 scientist from each of the 20 ICES’ member countries + chair and 4 vice-chairs ) ICES’ advice – MSY framework ICES has developed a framework for MSY-based advice: New template New template • Described in the introduction to the advisory report and available from the ICES’ web-site. Two-pager Strictly simple • MSY framework is based on an MSY fishing mortality information for managers and a biomass limit that triggers additional caution in the advised exploitation. • Framework encompasses the Precautionary Approach Supporting information that has been the basis for previous ICES’ advice. Background to the two- Letter 21 st April 2010 from Norway: asking ICES to pager • provide advice for 2011 according to agreed management plans - until a revision of these management plans to incorporate the MSY criterion has been agreed and adopted 6

Two- -pager pager Two- -pager pager Two Two Biology Environment The advice Fisheries where relevant for advice/management Standard graphs The stock status Quality Historical plot considerations and scientific basis Management plans (MGT) 7 8 Supporting Information Supporting Information Supporting Information Supporting Information Describe MSY/PA/MGT plan options Reference Remaining plots Catch / landings points Explanation of MGT plan Additional Assessment Forecast table Historic advice considerations summary Maps Stock/Mgt Sources 9 10 New in 2011 … New in 2011 One advice line: - Management plan result (if precautionary AND agreed by all) Otherwise: MSY result 11 12

ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012 Norwegian spring-spawning Herring (benchmarked in 2008) Working Group I: Working Group I: (new maturity-at-age in 2010) • • Northeast Atlantic herring Northeast Atlantic herring • • Northeast Atlantic mackerel Northeast Atlantic mackerel - 1999: Long-term management plan agreed by EU, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway and Russia - ICES considers the agreed MP to be precautionary ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012 Norwegian spring-spawning herring Norwegian spring-spawning herring Landings Recruitment (age 0) 2000 500 Historical stock trends Recruitment in billions 400 Landings in 1000 t 1500 300 1000 200 SSB ('000 tonnes) Fishing mortality: 5-14 Recruitment. Age: 0 500 100 14000 0.40 600 Billions 0 0 12000 0.35 500 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 0.30 10000 400 Fishing Mortality F MP Spawning Stock Biomass 0.25 0.25 12000 8000 Fpa SSB MP Blim 0.20 300 10000 F weighted (ages 5-14) 0.20 FMSY 6000 Bpa MSYBtrigger 8000 0.15 SSB in 1000 t 200 0.15 4000 6000 0.10 0.10 100 4000 2000 0.05 0.05 2000 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 No major issues with the quality of the assessment and the input Fishing mortality during 2008, 2009 and 2010 estimated at ~F pa data. (=F MSY ) Previous assessments have shown evidence of retrospective Year-classes since 2005 have been weak patterns, but this appears to be no longer the case. ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012 Norwegian spring-spawning herring Advice for 2012: ICES advises on the basis of the EU, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and Russia management plan that landings in 2012 should be no more than 833 000 t.

ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012 Northeast Atlantic mackerel Northeast Atlantic mackerel (benchmarked in 2007) F in 2010 (=0.26) above F pa and F MSY - Management plan (agreed in 2008) SSB above B pa and MSY B trigger - ICES considers the MP to be precautionary (TAC=total 2007 and 2008 year-classes about removals from the stock) average Landings Recruitment (age 0) - No international agreement on TACs for 2010 and 2011 1000 10 800 Recruitment in billions 8 Landings in 1000 t 600 6 400 4 200 2 0 0 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Fishing Mortality F MP Flim Spawning Stock Biomass 0.50 4000 Fpa FMSY SSB MP Blim 0.40 Bpa MSYBtrigger 3000 SSB in 1000 t F(ages 4-8) 0.30 2000 0.20 1000 0.10 0.00 0 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 • (Triennial) Egg surveys are the only fisheries independent data in the assessment – 2007 and 2010 revised upward by +12% and +4%, respectively. • Age composition of the stock from the landings only. ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012 Northeast Atlantic mackerel Historical stock trends SSB ('000 tonnes) Fishing mortality: 4-8 Recruitment. Age: 0 3500 0.50 10 Billions 0.45 9 3000 0.40 8 2500 0.35 7 0.30 6 2000 0.25 5 1500 0.20 4 0.15 3 1000 0.10 2 500 0.05 1 0 0.00 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 Perception of the stock remains relatively unchanged: – robust estimation of the trend and magnitude of F, and the trend in SSB ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012 PRAC meeting: PRAC meeting: Northeast Atlantic mackerel Advice for 2012: Working Group I Working Group I ICES advises on the basis of the Norway, Faroe Islands, and EU management plan that catches in 2012 should be between 586 000 t and 639 000 t. Comments and questions Comments and questions

ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012 Western horse mackerel Working Group II: Working Group II: • Horse mackerel • Horse mackerel • • Blue whiting Blue whiting - 2007: Management plan based on the triennial egg survey was proposed by the Pelagic RAC • Boarfish Boarfish • - ICES considers the MP to be precautionary in the short- term ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012 Western horse mackerel Western horse mackerel Historical stock trends SSB ('000 tonnes) Fishing mortality: 1-10 Recruitment. Age: 0 5000 0.25 30 4500 Billions 25 4000 0.20 3500 20 3000 0.15 2500 15 2000 0.10 10 1500 1000 0.05 5 500 0 0.00 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 Historical retrospective pattern, especially in the middle part of the time series, with a clear tendency to underestimate F and over- Fishing mortality has been increasing since 2006 and is now at ~F MSY estimate SSB. The update assessment shows a moderate consistency in terms of Year-classes since 2004 have been weak SSB, F and R. ICES’ advice for 2012 ICES’ advice for 2012 Western horse mackerel Advice for 2012: ICES advises on the basis of the MSY approach that catches in 2012 should be no more than 211 000 t.