Scenario-based Analyses of Energy System Development and its - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Scenario-based Analyses of Energy System Development and its Environmental Implications in Thailand Ram M. Shrestha Sunil Mall Migara Liyange Asian Institute of Technology Prepared for 12th AIM International Workshop, 19-21 February 2006, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Outline • Socio-economic and energy profile/transitions in Thailand • Scenario-based analysis • Some current/planned policies favoring LCS 2

Demographic profile/transition

Population (millions) 80 70 60 Population (millions) 50 AAGR : 1950-2000 : 2.3% 40 2000 – 2050: 0.4% 30 20 10 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Medium Variant. • Total population is estimated to peak by 2040 (75 millions). • Main reasons for slow projected growth rate is due to decline in total fertility rate and life expectancy improvement. 4

Total fertility rate (children per woman) Total fertility rate (children per woman) 7 Total fertility rate (children per woman) 6 5 4 3 1.93 1.85 2 1 0 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 Source: UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Medium Variant. • The total fertility rate falls from 1.93 children per woman between the • The total fertility rate falls from 1.93 children per woman between the period of 2000-2005 to about 1.85 children per woman by the period of period of 2000-2005 to about 1.85 children per woman by the period of 2045-2050. 2045-2050. 5

Urban-Rural Population (%) 100 90 Rural 80 70 Urban Percentage (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Medium Variant. Values for 2035-2050 are estimated. • In 2000, urban population was 31% of total population and it is projected to double (62%) by 2050. • By 2035, the share of both urban and rural population estimated to reach about 50%. 6

Population by age group (%) 25 Aged 0-4 Aged 65 or over Percentage in total population (%) 20 15 AAGR (2000-2050) : Aged 0-4: -0.8 % 10 Aged 65 and over: 2.6 % 5 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Medium Variant. • The number of people aged 65 and over rose from 0.6 million in 1950 (3.2% of total population) to 3.7 millions in 2000 (6% of total population) and it is projected to increase by 21.4% (16 millions) in 2050. • On the other hand, the number of people aged 0-4 is estimated to decline 7 in the future.

Energy and economy profile/transition

Primary energy supply mix (Mtoe) 120 103 100 Primary energy supply mix (Mtoe) 100 92 86 77 80 72 74 74 70 80 AAGR (1996-2005): AAGR (1996-2005): AAGR (1996-2005): Commercial: Commercial: Commercial: 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 60 New and renewable: 2.0% New and renewable: 2.0% New and renewable: 2.0% 40 20 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Commercial energy New and renewable energy Source: DEDE (2007) • The total primary energy supply grew at an AAGR of 4.1% during last decade, from 72 Mtoe in 1996 to 103 Mtoe in 2005. 9

Gross domestic product (GDP) 500 Gross domestic product (MER and PPPs) 450 400 350 300 250 AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3% AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3% AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3% AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3% AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3% AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3% AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3% 200 150 100 50 0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 GDP (billion US$ at 2000 prices and ex. rates) GDP (billion US$ at 2000 prices and PPPs) Source: IEA (2006) Source: IEA (2006) Source: IEA (2006) Source: IEA (2006) Source: IEA (2006) • In 1971, the country’s GDP was it roughly US$ 20.2 billion (at 2000 prices and exchange rate) and increased by more than seven-folds in size to approximately US$150 billion by 2004. • Over the period of 1971-2004, GDP grew with AAGR of 6.3%. 10

Electricity consumption per capita and Oil demand Electricity consumption per capita and Oil demand 1600 1400 Electricity consumption/capita 1200 AAGR (1971-2005): Index (1971 = 100) 1000 Electricity consumption per capita: 8.6% 800 Oil demand Oil demand: 6.3% 600 400 200 0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 Source: IEA (2006) • During 1971-2004: • During 1971-2004: • Total electricity demand rising very rapidly: it grew by 8.6% per year • Total electricity demand rising very rapidly: it grew by 8.6% per year from 126 kWh/capita in 1971 to 1,865 kWh/capita in 2004. from 126 kWh/capita in 1971 to 1,865 kWh/capita in 2004. • Oil demand grew by 6.3% per year from 124 thousand bbl/day in 1971 • Oil demand grew by 6.3% per year from 124 thousand bbl/day in 1971 to 920 thousand bbl/day in 2004. to 920 thousand bbl/day in 2004. 11

Primary energy intensity (toe per thousand 2000 US$ using MER) 0.8 TPES / GDP (toe per thousand 2000 US$) 0.7 0.6 AAGR (1990-2004): 0.5 Thailand: 1.1% 0.4 OECD average: - 1.0% World average: - 1.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 Source: IEA (2006) • Over the past decade (1990-2004), primary energy intensity in Thailand is in increasing trends unlike in the OECD and the world average. 12

Energy System Development and Emissions in Thailand under Selected Scenarios

Energy and emissions scenarios for Thailand • Time horizon: 2000 – 2050 • No explicit climate intervention policies • New and emerging technologies considered • Main scenario drivers: – socio-economic dynamics – energy efficiency improvements – penetration of renewable energy technologies 14

Scenario description Scenario Economy Demography Technology Description High growth Low population Energy efficiency TA1 Global market 2000-2020: 7.5% growth: improvement: 2021-2050: 5.5% 0.02% p.a 0.3% p.a Moderate growth High population Energy efficiency TA2 Dual track 2000-2020: 6% growth: improvement: 2021-2050: 5% 0.74% 0.2% p.a Medium growth Low population Energy efficiency Sufficiency TB1 2000-2020: 6.5% growth: improvement: economy 2021-2050: 5.5% 0.02% 0.4% p.a Low growth Medium population Energy efficiency Local TB2 2000-2020: 4% growth: improvement: stewardship 2021-2050: 3% 0.39% 0.1% p.a 15

Existing and candidate power generation technologies considered in the study Technology Fuel type A. Fossil fuel and biomass based technologies Conventional steam Lignite, natural gas, fuel oil, biomass Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) Lignite and bituminous coal Pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC) Lignite and bituminous coal Combined cycle Natural gas and fuel oil Combined cycle – advanced Natural gas Gas turbine Natural gas and fuel oil Biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) Biomass B. Renewables based technologies - Hydro, wind, solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and geothermal C. CCS Coal and Natural gas Altogether 18 existing and new power generation technologies are considered 16

Results and Discussions

Pre-dominance of fossil fuels 600 AAGR Ratio (%) 2050/2000 Primary energy supply (Mtoe) 500 400 4.1 7.4 TA1 300 3.6 5.9 TA2 200 3.4 5.4 TB1 100 2.5 3.5 - TB2 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 T A1 T A2 T B1 T B2 Dominance of fossil fuels in the primary energy mix: 2000: 81% 2050: 95% (TA1), 92% (TA2), 93% (TB1) and 87% (TB2) 18

Transportation energy requirements by energy type under the four scenarios during 2000-2050 (ktoe). TA1 TA2 180,000 120,000 Energy consumption (ktoe) Energy consumption (ktoe) 150,000 100,000 120,000 80,000 90,000 60,000 60,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Natural gas Biofuels Hydrogen Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Natural gas Biofuels Hydrogen TB2 TB1 100,000 120,000 Energy consumption (ktoe) Energy consumption (ktoe) 100,000 80,000 80,000 60,000 60,000 40,000 40,000 20,000 20,000 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Energy mix: Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Natural gas Biofuels Hydrogen Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Natural gas Biofuels Hydrogen Share of fossil fuels: 100% in 2000 Share of alternative fuels (biofuels and hydrogen): 38% (TA1); 17% (TA2); 15% (TB1); and 4% (TB2) in 2050. Large share inTA1 due to lagrge share of hydrogen. 19