ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EUROPEAN SYSTEM WITH A HIGH RES SCENARIO Vera Silva, Marie Perrot EDF R&D Toulouse, 8 September 2015 | 1
Simulation of the EU Energy Roadmap « HiRES 2030 » scenario HiRES scenario EU energy roadmap Generation Mix 2030 High RES 2030 GW Load factor (h/yr) Solar (PV) 220 1100 60 % RES (generation) Onshore wind 280 1900 O ffshore wind 205 3200 Hydro 120 3800 40 % Wind & Solar Fuel Price Coal 86 €/t Thermal fossil fuel Nuclear Wind Onshore Gas 10 €/MBtu Wind offshore Solar Hydro power Oil 107 €/baril Biomass & Geothermal CO 2 35 €/t | 2
What is this study about? Connecting RES and load Connecting RES and load Flexibility to handle variability Flexibility to handle variability Keeping the lights on Keeping the lights on Balancing the economics Balancing the economics Euro/MWh Marginal prices 140 120 PV 100 80 60 Marginal 40 price 20 h 0 | 3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
An integrated approach for the technical and economical analysis of High RES scenarios in Europe is required Generation mix Representation of VG Representation of VG Investment / hourly dispatch Location of VG Interconection load Investment loop factors Hourly load factors (or lower resolution) Generation load VG forecast errors factors CONTINENTAL Input data VG curtailment Model Demand time series Market prices and Investment costs generation costs Generation dynamic Flex constraints Plant revenues Economic Assessment Fuels costs analysis Reserves and CO2 price flexibility adequacy Dynamic simulation Network transfer platform capacities Frequency stability M. Lopez‐Botet, et all, ‘Methodology for the economic and technical analysis of the European power system with a large share of variable renewable generation’ , presented at IEEE PES General Meeting, Washington, USA, 27‐31 July, 2014. | 4 Langrene, N., van Ackooij, W., Breant, F., ‘Dynamic Constraints for Aggregated Units: Formulation and Application ’, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.26, no.3, Aug. 2011.
Understanding the variability 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 ‐ ‐ 0 0 30 30 60 60 90 90 120 120 150 150 180 180 210 210 240 240 270 270 300 300 330 330 360 360 ‐ 100 ‐ 100 | 5
Geographical diversity does help, but there is still significant variability at European level Installedpower : Onshore wind daily average generation Source RTE 280 GW 30 climatic years 250 Averageload factor : 25% 22% 200 Winter 150 Average difference Summer 30% of daily generation: 100 15% 90 GW 50 - 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC You can reduce the variability of wind at local level but the correlation in wind regimes acts as a limit at continental level | 6
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