Decomposition of trends in non-marital fertility ratios of Black - PDF document

Decomposition of trends in non-marital fertility ratios of Black Africans and Whites in South Africa, 1996 and 2011 Mosidi S. Nhlapo, Statistics South Africa Lesego Lefakane, Statistics South Africa Abstract This paper uses decomposition to analyse trends in factors responsible for changes in non- marital fertility ratios (NFR) for the White and Black African population groups in South African for 1996 and 2011, the data is from 1996 and 2011 South African censuses. The analysis identifies two components / sources or of changes in the NFR over this period; one based on the changing structure of births by marital status and the other is related to changes in non-marital child births due to changes in NFR within each population group respectively . Analysis show that although NFR declined for both population groups, fertility of married women also declined over the study period. Increases in conception within cohabiting relationship were not significant to impact NFR upwards for both groups. For White population group non-marital birth accounted for 17% of all births, and that most births (above 80%) still occur within marriage, making non-marital fertility the least contributor to over all fertility of the group. In the case of Black Africans, above 40% of all births are nonmarital, even though NFR declined over the period. Marital fertility also declined for this group as well. Critically, the results point to increasing importance of cohabitation for births in South Africa, a factor warranting further research on the situation of such births. 1

BACKGROUND Africa has been regarded as the last continent to experience demographic transition as declines in both fertility and mortality has been slow (Vollmer 2015). Studies have documented how Africa still has the highest fertility rate in the world, although a decline is evident. South Africa’s fertility levels are particularly inter esting as they are the lowest in Africa. The history of the introduction of family planning in the country much earlier than the rest of the continent is an interesting one. This is also compounded by fertility out of marital unions, which also departs from the rest of the continent. Although earlier research alluded to HIV/AIDS not having an impact on fertility levels (UNSD 2002), recent studies have shown converse results (Marston, Nakiyingi-Miiro et al. 2016) and this is important as South Africa is one of the most affected countries in the world. This epidemic has also brought nuances in demographic phenomena that have not been seen before. Therefore, all these interesting components that affects the demography of South Africa presents an opportunity to critically analyse census data in order to investigate fertility levels, trends and differentials in South Africa as well as the corresponding correlates and their consequences. Although a lot of research has been done on fertility in South Africa since the dawn of democracy, one can argue that little is still known about the precise nature of the determinants of fertility in the country. Research tells us that although fertility is influenced by socio-economic factors, these factors have to operate through biological and behavioural factors (marriage, contraception use, abortion, breastfeeding etc.) and these directly affect fertility. Palamuleni (2011) argues that the mechanisms through which socio- economic factors affect biological and behavioural factors in order to influence fertility has not been fully understood in South Africa. The African continent has undergone has undergone (and still is undergoing) demographic changes especially when one looks at fertility and nuptiality patters. Marriage in the past was traditionally virtually universal and occurred early in life, however recent research has shown that median ages at marriage are rapidly rising. Proportions of never married women are on the increase and first marriage is delayed in Africa and more so in South Africa. Other scholars attribute this to increasing levels of education, urbanisation and economic opportunities as well as new attitudes and preference among young women for later marriages and remaining unmarried (Garenne, Tollman et al. 2000). Unlike in other African countries, fertility out of wedlock is not as taboo in South Africa and therefore contributing to some women having children in their early years (teenage/adolescents) then resuming their fertility again once they are in unions. Because South Africa has long showed signs of late 2

marriage for its women, this has often been associated with the increase in the risk of premarital fertility especially for black Africans. South Africa has the highest pre-marital fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa. One of the biggest contributing factors could be the high adolescent fertility and late marriage among especially among Black South Africans (Madhavan, Harrison et al. 2013). Several studies have been done relating to non-marital fertility. Palamuleni and Adebowale (2014) looked at premarital childbearing among unmarried female youths in sub-Saharan Africa. The study revealed that premarital childbearing is still a problem in the region. This study however did not look at all childbearing ages and also did not look specifically at South Africa. Madhavan, Harrison et al. (2013) looked at the management of non-marital fertility among young women in KwaZulu – Natal and Mpumalanga. However, this study was qualitative and located in communities within Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) and therefore may not be representative of the entire country. Using the 1996 and 2001 censuses Palamuleni (2011) decomposed changes in the age structure, proportion married and marital fertility, using crude birth rate (CBR) as an indicator. The study found that changes in marriage and marital fertility were significant in their contribution to fertility decline. Smith, Morgan et al. (1996) decomposed the trends in non-marital fertility of blacks and whites in the United States, They found that increases in proportion of women not married at all ages accounted to increases in non-marital fertility for blacks, while for white women, the authors found that declines in marital fertility was important in increasing non- marital fertility. Yi (1991) decomposed CBR into components attributable to changes in age structure, age at marriage as well as marital fertility. Their results show that changing age structure and the declining age at marriage were mainly responsible for the increase in CBR for China as a whole as well as in most of the provinces. The increase in marital fertility was found to be less important. Shakya (2016) also used decomposition to determine components of change in Nepal TFR focusing on marital structure and marital fertility. There has however been no recent study looking at changes in non-marital births over time by population group with respect to marital status. This study aims to fill that gap. In order to contribute towards the understanding of the correlates of fertility in South Africa, this study aims at decomposing changes in non-marital fertility using the first census since democracy (1996) as well as the latest census conducted (2011). Decomposition is a technique that is used in demography in order to break down changes in demographic parameters (fertility, mortality and migration) into two or more components. OBJECTIVE 3