Saving lives on roads A cost curve to prioritise road safety actions September, 2013 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited
Road crashes are one societies primary causes of premature death, and costing society >$500 Billion � Road crashes are the second highest Global road traffic fatalities Millions cause of premature death and disability for children 1.9 � Road traffic crashes kill 1.3 million and 1.3 seriously injure 50 million annually � The annual cost to society is ~$520b , more than 1.6% of global GDP 2010 2020 SOURCE: World Bank; WHO | McKinsey & Company 1
2011-2020 will be the “Decade of Action for Road Safety” UN Proclaims 2011-2020 as Decade of Action for Road Safety A clear aspiration Goals: � Reduce deaths in 2020 by 50% � Save 5m lives and prevent 50m injuries over decade EU endorse the ‘road safety orientation 2011-2020’ Goals: � Reduce deaths in 2020 by 50% The commission invite the state members to allocate necessary resources to develop coherent and cost-effective action plans SOURCE: UN General Assembly, Commission for Global Road Safety | McKinsey & Company 2
Fatality rates are very different across the world Road fatalities per 100,000 people 2007/8 3.6 United Kingdom 3.9 Japan 4.1 Netherlands 4.3 Sweden 5.5 Germany 6.8 Australia 6.9 Spain 6.9 France 7.4 Denmark 8.7 Italy 12.3 USA 14.4 Greece 16.5 China 16.8 India 19.9 Brazil 20.7 Mexico 20.8 World 25.2 Russia 29.0 Saudi Arabia 33.2 South Africa Source: World Health Organisation | McKinsey & Company 3
Why is road safety a difficult problem to tackle? Many stakeholders are involved – adding significant complexity to problem Insurance companies Key sources of complexity Healthcare Government � Many decision makers with systems (infr/transport) different agendas � Much room for improve coordination among stakeholders Police NGO � No direct link between beneficiaries and investors Car Manufacturers | McKinsey & Company 4
McKinsey has used economic science to approach other global burdens Case Study – Water scarcity � ‘Global economics of water’ delivered a comprehensive view of the challenges and solutions facing water sector � Impact has been the implementation of water scarcity reduction initiatives in several countries + global recognition (Davos) Case Study – Water scarcity � ‘Pathways to a low carbon economy’ created a universal language for GHG policy design and negotiation � GHG curve playing an instrumental role in COP governmental negotiations and policy design SOURCE: Water Resources Group, GHG cost curve | McKinsey & Company 5
Our five-step approach to building a road safety strategy Involve Create ‘crash Develop Build Cost Develop stakeholders profile’ library of Curve Strategy & initiatives implementa- tion plan Identify root Prioritise Gather Map all Rank by commitment causes of the impact and potential initiatives and relevant from all region’s cost build detailed initiatives effectiveness strategy and relevant fatalities action plan stakeholders 1 2 3 4 5 SOURCE: McKinsey | McKinsey & Company 6
To ensure ownership of plan, it is crucial to involve all 1 stakeholders from day 1 Responsible government official The ultimate decision maker in Police region should be involved, either as: Infrastructure authority � the project sponsor Transport authority � Or the head of the steering Healthcare (hospitals) committee to ensure NGOs, associations implementation Academia Private sector (automobile, insurance, suppliers, other) Stakeholders will be involved in: � Data collection � Solution development � Ownership of implementation SOURCE: McKinsey | McKinsey & Company 7
Specific ‘crash profiles’ support the identification of root 2 causes Crash dashboard Benchmarking tree Higher rate of mortality for PTW1 vs. car and higher stock ESTIMATES DISGUISED CLIENT EXAMPLE Road accidents/fatalities dashboard of PTW penalize overall Italian and Florence ranking 2009, accidents with injuries 2008 Time of the day 1 Age, Percent Day of the week, Percent Car fatality per 10,000 car 0.7 0 0.6 0.6 Total: 4,009 0.5 0.4 0.2 62 Ø 0.6 M Car fatality per 100,000 people W 38 18 18 12 12 11 15 11 11 14 3.5 3.4 IT FI DE FR UK SE 13 2.9 9 12 2.5 2.1 8 10 1.1 Working Draft - Last Modified 5/24/2011 12:25:40 PM Printed 5 5 Cars per 10 people 18 6 4 4 6.1 5.5 5.0 5.0 3 3 4.8 4.7 2 2 IT FI DE FR UK SE Ø 5.1 M T W T F S S Pedestrians fatality per 100,000 <15 25 35 45 55 65 75 IT FI DE FR UK SE people 12 2.6 Fatality per 100,000 people Accident dynamics 2 1.1 0.9 1.0 Other vehicles involved and driver ages Violated road code articles 0.8 0.5 7.9 2 7.2 6.7 M Total: 3,363 5.4 PTW fatality per 10,000 PTW Cars 4.3 4.3 IT FI DE FR UK SE 70 4.4 3.8 47 141 1,624 FR/LT crash 1,197 30 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.4 W PTW fatality per 100,000 people Ø 2.9 154 1,265 LT crash 500 IT FI DE FR UK SE 39 3.3 PTW 145 945 2.3 IT FI DE FR UK SE Running over 414 5 1.7 8 146 411 0.9 0.8 0.7 Other Hit with vehicle 219 PTW per 10 people 007 290 Pedestrians 1.9 281 1.6 190 Off the road 213 IT FI DE FR UK SE Percent 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 Ø 0.6 12 143 263 12 11 FR crash 107 10 10 10 Other fatality per 100,000 people 9 191 220 IT FI DE FR UK SE 6 Hit with obstacle 98 9.3 5 4 189 195 3 3 1 2 2 Fall from vehicle 91 108 149 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 108 157 <15 25 35 45 55 65 75 >80 1 Powered Two Wheels IT FI DE FR UK SE 2 Improved vs. 2007/8 (8.7) 1 Based on 2009-10 2 FR = Frontal; LT = Lateral Behavioural factor contribution Geographical analyses Il ~30% degli incidenti gravi è associabile a guida in stato di ebbrezza Geographic localization of accidents Percento Percentuale incidenti con dato non disponibile Fonte Violazioni art. 186 a Firenze in 8 24 32 incidenti mortali (2008-10) Working Draft - Last Modified 5/24/2011 12:25:40 PM Printed Working Draft - Last Modified 5/24/2011 12:26:06 PM Printed Omissioni di soccorso correlate 19 a uso di alcol in Italia (2010) Contromano in stato 26 di alterazione (2010) Decessi in incidenti stradali 30 in Italia correlati all’alcol Incidenti non mortali in Italia 50 correlati all’alcol Uomini deceduti in incidenti 38 stradali correlati all’alcol Donne decedute in incidenti 18 stradali correlati all’alcol Ø 30 SOURCE: McKinsey | McKinsey & Company 8
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