9 th National Security Space Policy & Architecture Symposium “S&T Ingredients S&T Ingredients “ “S&T Ingredients for the Back to Basics Recipe” ” for the Back to Basics Recipe for the Back to Basics Recipe” DUANE DEAL 1
The right idea … 2
That’s what it’s all about! what it’s all about! The right idea … That’s 3
Overview • Peeking at what’s happened -- Peeking at what’s happened -- the environment the environment • The right recipe: “Back to Basics” The right recipe: “Back to Basics” • A few S&T perspectives & credentials A few S&T perspectives & credentials (via a “1-Pe (via a “1-Person Pan n Panel”) l”) • Applying S&T capabilities to the end-to-end cycle Applying S&T capabilities to the end-to-end cycle • Summary Summary 4
Theme If -- If -- “Back to Basics” “Back to Basics” is the question … s the question … Then -- Then -- a government, industry, & lab mix a government, industry, & lab mix is the best answer. is the best answer. 5
9 th National Security Space Policy & Architecture Symposium Peeking at what’ ’s happened: s happened: Peeking at what’s happened: Peeking at what The environment via 20- -20 hindsight 20 hindsight The environment via 20 The environment via 20-20 hindsight 6
External environment Military Ordered U.S. MDA May Cut To Trim Budgets The US Navy: lost in space? $1B Over 5 Years by Taylor Dinerman 5-Year Plans Must Be Cut By $32.1 By Gopal Ratnam Billion The cost and engineering problems the Air Force is having By Renae Merle and Bradley Graham, Washington Post The Pentagon’s Missile with their space programs and in trying to train a solid cadre of Staff Writer Defense Agency (MDA) qualified and effective space personnel are all too familiar. Now it …. proposes to axe nearly $1 seems that, on a smaller scale, the Navy is stuck with a similar Thus, the cuts are expected to come at the billion from its five-year budget dilemma. This problem could become more serious in the future expense of expensive weapons programs such as plan to satisfy the Defense since, unlike the Air Force, the senior Navy leadership may not even Lockheed Martin Corp.'s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Department’s budget priorities. be aware that there is anything wrong. and the DD(X) destroyer being developed by …. the MDA will cut $955 million from …. Northrop Grumman Corp. The military's its 2007-11 plan to meet Pentagon budget goals set out in an Oct. 19 procurement and research and development directive from Gordon England, acting programs, from which defense companies most of U.S. deputy secretary of defense. their profits, are considered vulnerable, especially England’s memo ordered agencies to those that are behind schedule or over budget. find $32.1 billion in cuts for 2007-11.... GAO Says U.S. Air Force Has More Space Than It Can Handle AF Space Program Woes By JEREMY SI NGER Hurting Army Capabilities Space New s Staff W riter COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. -- The commander of the U.S. Army Space WASHINGTON – The U.S. Air Force has started more space programs than it can and Missile Defense Command afford, setting itself up for disruptive funding expressed concern on Jan. 24 about cuts and schedule delays, according to a government audit report delivered to cost and schedule troubles in Air Force Congress June 23. …. space programs, saying they have a -Trying to make technological leaps that are negative effect on Army capabilities too difficult with next generation systems. …. and reduce the confidence of Pentagon -Lack of a qualified workforce to support officials in Army programs. space acquisition programs. …. 7
Defense Acquisition Performance Assessment (DAPA) •Cited prominent examples Cited prominent examples •Cost tripled, delays Cost tripled, delays •Complex technology … Complex technology … not sufficiently ot sufficiently prototyped prototyped •Emphases: Emphases: •Timing Timing as a Key Performance Parameter (KPP) as a Key Performance Parameter (KPP) •Budget to most realistic cost estimates Budget to most realistic cost estimates; contract ; contract similarly similarly (o (or be r be unexecutable unexecutable from square from square one) one) •Choose low risk solution Choose low risk solution over best value; reward over best value; reward for adhering to schedule for adhering to schedule versus only paying for versus only paying for performance performance 8
Another independent view Addressing National Security Space problems Ref: “What Went Wrong in National Security Space?,” remarks to Space Enterprise Council, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, by Loren Thompson, COO Lexington Institute, 13 Sep 05) •Study revealed not-so-surprising major problems: Study revealed not-so-surprising major problems: • Unplanned cost growth Unplanned cost growth • Excessive/unreali Excessive/unrealistic pe tic perf rfor orma manc nce r e requir quirements ents • Poor management Poor management practices practices • High w High workf rkforce rce turnover turnover • NSS Acquisition Policy 03-01 NSS Acquisition Policy 03-01 • Dema Demands rigoro nds rigorous approa s approach ch to technical baseli to technical baselines & nes & perf perfor orma manc nce r e requir quirements ents • Mandates early testing Mandates early testing of c of critical components itical components 9
The Cost “Axis of Evil” Eventual Ev al Product Produc Realistic Cost Realistic Cost Co Cont ntract Price ract Price Some Somewhere where in be in betwe tween Changes Changes Government Range Government Range Re Requireme irements, Scope, nts, Scope, Cos Costs u s unde dersta rstated ted Sched Schedule, Qua , Quantity, tity, Government Budget Government Budget Budget Profile Bu et Profile Less than understated costs Less than understated costs Low Bid Prices Low Bid Price Co Cost st Time Time 10
The TSPR road “We expect to achieve greater successes We expect to achieve greater successes from every from every person, dollar, and hour we expend to person, dollar, and hour we expend to acquire and acquire and sustain our current and sustain our current and new new we weapo apon systems.” systems.” Darleen Druyun (then) Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition and Management “The TSPR approac he TSPR approach a addresses Gen ddresses General ral McPeak's assessment of acqu McPeak's assessment of acquisition and ition and seeks to turn failures into successes … seeks to turn failures into successes … TSPR TSPR is ce is certainly more rtainly more than than a passing a passing catchy phrase catchy phrase o or ac acronym ronym …. ” …. ” Air Force Journal of Logistics Summer 2001 11
The TSPR road dead-ends 1 Military Aerospace Technology 15 Nov 2004 in Volume 3, Issue 3 Interview with Lt. Gen. Brian A. Arnold (then) Space and Missile Systems Center Commander “…. space programs will continue to be challenging by their very nature. As a result of a decade or more of acquisition reform and the Total System Program Responsibility [TSPR] concept, … less government oversight led to less insight, and any initial cost savings due to manpower savings became cost overruns. We have eliminated TSPR as a process.” 12
The TSPR road dead-ends 2 November 2006 “Total System Performance Responsibility, or TSPR--was intended to facilitate acquisition reform and enable DOD to streamline a cumbersome acquisition process and leverage innovation and management expertise from the private sector. However, DOD later found that this approach magnified problems related to requirements creep and poor contractor performance.” 13
"If you do not know where you are going, "If you do not know where you are going, "If you do not know where you are going, "If you do not know where you are going, any road will take you there." any road will take you there." any road will take you there." any road will take you there." Cheshire Cat in Alice in Wonderland 14
9 th National Security Space Policy & Architecture Symposium The Right Recipe: “ “Back to Basics Back to Basics” ” The Right Recipe: “Back to Basics” The Right Recipe: “Preventing recurring nightmares Preventing recurring nightmares” ” “ “Preventing recurring nightmares” 15
"Change is inevitable. "Change is inevitable. "Change is inevitable. "Change is inevitable. Growth is optional." Growth is optional." Growth is optional." Growth is optional." Walt Disney 16
NOTE: Presented by USecAF Sega, National Space Symposium, 5 Apr 06 Strategic Space & Defense, 11Oct 06 NDIA Symposium, 1 Feb 07 Back to Basics in Acquisition STP-R1 Streak • Four-stage process XSS-11 XSS-11 – System Production – Systems Development – Technology Development – Science & Technology • Reapportion Risk GPS-IIR-M – Lower risk in Production • Use mature technology TSAT – Higher risk in S&T I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 17
Recommend
More recommend
