Risks For Ecosystems Key Findings from the Fourth Assessment Report - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Risks For Ecosystems Key Findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley Coordinating Lead Authors chapter «Ecosystems, their Properties, Goods, and Services» from the Assessment Report Four of the IPCC Systems Ecology,Departement of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zurich 1

Contents • Background • Projected, future impacts • Ecosystems and tipping points • Conclusions Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

IPCC Assessment Report 4 WGII, Chapter 4 «Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services» • 2 CLAs: Andreas Fischlin, Guy F. Midgley • 8 LAs: Jeff Price, Rik Leemans, Brij Gopal, Carol Turley, Mark Rounsevell, Pauline Dube, Juan Tarazona, Andrei Velichko • 19 CAs with outstanding contributions from Jacqueline de Chazal and Rachel Warren • 2 REs • Hundred of expert reviewers, scientists etc. • >3200 scientific articles reviewed • 915 cited Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 4

Temperate forests Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 10

Ökosysteme Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 11

Contents • Background • Projected, future impacts • Ecosystems and tipping points • Conclusions Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Future Resilience of Ecosystems The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, overexploitation of resources). (high confidence) IPCC, 2007. SPM WGII, p.11 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 17

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008 Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. Lenton et al., 2008. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 WGII: 211-272 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 18

Increasing Trends in Fire Frequencies Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 19 11/Mar/2009

Forest pests - Mountain Pine Beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae, Col., Scolytidae ) Section 4.4.5 (Fischlin et al ., 2007. IPCC WGII) Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 20

Forest pests - Mountain Pine Beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae, Col., Scolytidae ) Section 4.4.5 (Fischlin et al ., 2007. IPCC WGII) Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 21

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008 Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990 >0°C >0°C Fire Fire Insects Insects Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. Lenton et al., 2008. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 WGII: 211-272 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 22

Ecosystems Services Provisioning Regulating Cultural Supporting Services Global GDP 1997 18 Trillions (=10 12 =Tera) US $ 16 33 54 Costanza et al ., 1997. Nature , 387: 253-260 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 23

Impacts on Biodiversity 20%-30% of higher plants and animals at high risk of extinction if ∆ T 1.5°C - 2.5°C over present (medium confidence) Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 24

Burning Ember Diagram: Compiles Impacts Figure TS.6:Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annual temperature rise IPCC, 2007. Technical Summary WGII Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 25

Most corals bleached Example - Coral Reefs +2° +1.7 ° Figure TS.6:Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annual temperature rise IPCC, 2007. Technical Summary WGII Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 26

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008 Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990 Fire Fire Insects Insects Coral Reefs Bleached +1.2°C ~ 25% marine biodiversity Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. Lenton et al., 2008. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 WGII: 211-272 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 27

Losses in South Africa ~10-80% fauna, Example - South Africa ~40-50% plants (~50-65% Fynbos) +2.1 ° +2° Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 28

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008 Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990 Fire Fire Insects Insects Coral Reefs Bleached ~ 25% marine biodiversity Biodiversity +1.6°C Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. Lenton et al., 2008. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 WGII: 211-272 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 29

Example - Sea Ice Biome +3° +2.8 ° Extinction risks for polar species Major changes in polar Systems Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 30

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008 +2.3°C Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, Polar Species Biodiversity 452(7190): 987-990 Fire Fire Insects Insects Coral Reefs Bleached ~ 25% marine biodiversity Biodiversity +2.3°C Polar Species Biodiversity Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. Lenton et al., 2008. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 WGII: 211-272 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 31

Risks For Ecosystems Key Findings from the Fourth Assessment Report - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Risks For Ecosystems Key Findings from the Fourth Assessment Report - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Risks For Ecosystems Key Findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley Coordinating Lead Authors chapter Ecosystems, their Properties, Goods, and Services from the Assessment Report Four of the IPCC

Assessment of environmental risks Assessment of environmental risks in Urban Ecosystems of

Environmental Reporting Presentation to Business and ecosystems: Identifying risks and

Man-made Environmental Risks in Siberia: Terrestrial ecosystems and hydrological cycling (notes

GLOBAL RISKS GLOBAL RISKS GLOBAL RISKS - GLOBAL RISKS - - - GLOBAL RISKS GLOBAL RISKS

IN5320 - Development in Platform Ecosystems Lecture 5: Design in Platform ecosystems 5th of

IN5320 - Development in Platform Ecosystems Lecture 7: Platform Ecosystems fundamental concepts

IN5320 - Development in Platform Ecosystems Lecture 9: Design in platform ecosystems 15th of

IN5320 - Development in Platform Ecosystems Lecture 3: Platform Ecosystems fundamental concepts

Water &amp; ecosystems in deltas using aquatic ecosystems to solve water quality and quantity

ISLAND ECOSYSTEMS ISLAND ECOSYSTEMS ISLAND ECOSYSTEMS ISLAND ECOSYSTEMS The PABITRA Project

Ecosystems Enhancement A Systems Approach to Sustainability Strategy Outline 1. Background

3rd Grade PSI Ecosystems: Group Behavior www.njctl.org Slide 3 / 78 Ecosystems: Group Behavior

Energy Energy Flow in Ecosystems Energy flows, but matter is recycled Matter and Energy

The Use of Nitrogen and its Consequences on Aquatic Ecosystems Jos Luiz de Attayde UFRN,

Security in Wireless Ecosystems Security in Wireless Ecosystems Wade Trappe Wireless Ecosystems

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