RESULTS FROM REGIONAL SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN THE WESTERN UNITED - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

RESULTS FROM REGIONAL SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES Lewison Lem, Ph.D. Parsons Brinckerhoff and Center for Climate Strategies for Lincoln Institute of Land Policy April 2008

METRO REGION SCENARIO ANALYSIS: 2020 HORIZON YEAR � LUTRAQ Study -6.4% Lem DRAFT for Lincoln in Vancouver � Regional Livability Footprint -4.6% � PSRC Vision 2020 -3.4% � Envision Utah -3.0% 2

STANDARDIZING HORIZON YEAR TO 20 YEARS � 31 SCENARIO ANALYSIS PROJECTS Lem DRAFT for Lincoln in Vancouver � MEDIAN RESULT OF -2.32% VMT REDUCTION OFF BASELINE � ALL WESTERN REGION ANALYSES PRODUCED LARGER IMPACT THAN MEDIAN � WESTERN STATE ANALYSES INCLUDED: NM, AZ, WA, TX, CA, OR, UT, CO � RESULTS RANGED FROM MEDIAN TO -17.3% 3

CALIFORNIA STATE ESTIMATES OF -2.6% TO -10.2% ENERGY SAVINGS FROM VMT REDUCTION � VALUES RANGED BY METRO AREAS Estimates Low High Lem DRAFT for Lincoln in Vancouver � Los Angeles -2.8% -12.4% � San Francisco -2.1% -6.2% � Sacramento -1.6% -13.7% � Stockton -3.1% -12.5% � Fresno -2.8% -9.3% � Smaller regions had similar low estimates and lower high estimates (-8% to -9%) 4

METRO REGION SCENARIO ANALYSIS: POST-2020 HORIZON YEAR Lem DRAFT for Lincoln in Vancouver � METRO VISION 2035 -6.2% � BLUEPRINT 2050 -31.7% 5