NERIES – JRA3 Developing Rapid Shake-map and Loss Estimation Capability Regional Earthquake Shaking and Loss Assessment Dr.Karin Sesetyan, Dr. Mine B. Demircioglu , Dr. Can Zulfikar, Yaver Kamer and Prof. Dr. Mustafa Erdik Bogazici University, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey Cost Action C26 International Conference, 16-18 September 2010
ELER - EU NERIES Project (http://www.neries-eu.org/) The JRA 3 working group aims for rapid earthquake loss estimation (damages and casualties) throughout the Euro-Med region. JRA 3 Working Group: KOERI,Imperial College, NORSAR , EMSC, ITSAK, DPC-SSN, ICC, IST Task-1 Evaluation of the existing tools on urban earthquake loss assessment (Imperial College) Task- 2 Development of “Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine” Task-2a Earthquake Shaking estimation (NORSAR) Task-2b Earthquake Vulnerability (KOERI) Task-3 Development of the ELER Software (KOERI) Task-4 ELER Utilization/Applications (EMSC)
ELER ELER ELER Earthquake Source Earthquake Source Earthquake Source Parameters Parameters Parameters Tectonic Entities Tectonic Entities Tectonic Entities HAZARD Module HAZARD Module HAZARD Module (at reference soil) (at reference soil) (at reference soil) External Hazard External Hazard External Hazard HAZARD MODULE Data Data Data Overview of Site Response Site Response Site Response Vs30 Distribution Vs30 Distribution Vs30 Distribution Module Module Module ELER External Site Response External Site Response External Site Response Data Data Data Software USGS ShakeMap USGS ShakeMap USGS ShakeMap SHAKEMAP SHAKEMAP SHAKEMAP Module Module Module Components Online Online Online Accelerometric Accelerometric Accelerometric Data Data Data Vulnerability Modules Vulnerability Modules Vulnerability Modules (Intensity and Spectral Displacement (Intensity and Spectral Displacement (Intensity and Spectral Displacement Based) Based) Based) User Supplied User Supplied User Supplied Vulnerability Modules Vulnerability Modules Vulnerability Modules Default Physical and Social Inventory Data Default Physical and Social Inventory Data Default Physical and Social Inventory Data LOSS MODULE User Supplied Physical User Supplied Physical User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory Data and Social Inventory Data and Social Inventory Data Physical Losses Physical Losses Physical Losses and Casualties and Casualties and Casualties Mapping and Mapping and Mapping and Reporting Reporting Reporting
Levels of Loss Assessment Analysis Crude Regional Scale Urban Scale Estimations Damage and Damage and of Casualty Casualty Casualties Assessment Assessment
Methodologies used in ELER Software Ground Motion Methodology Modified USGS Shake-map algorithm Building Damage Estimation Methodologies Intensity Based Vulnerability (Level 1) Macroseismic method implicitly defined by EMS-98 scale (Giovinazzi S., 2005) Spectral Displacement- Based Vulnerability (Level 2) Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM) Modified Acceleration – Displacement Response Spectrum Method (MADRS) Reduction Factor Method Coefficient Method Casualty Estimation methodology Samardjieva & Badal (2002) – Level 0 Intensity based fatality rates – Level 0 KOERI (with ATC-13) – Level 1 HAZUS99 – Level 2 HAZUS-MH – Level 2
Platform independency Since MATLAB is a cross-platform programming language ELER can run on the following operating systems without any code modification: • Windows (x64) • Linux (x86-64) • Mac OS X • Solaris 64 Once compiled MATLAB programs can run without a licensed MATLAB software. User interface ELER can be used both from a GUI and command line. The GUI enables even the inexperienced user to obtain results fast. The command line interface can be used for automated, scheduled or event triggered runs.
Input file formats ShakeMap formatted XML station list files XML Files: (.xml) for ground motion estimation input Text t Files: (.txt, .xy) Fault coordinates, fault databases, site condition maps in xyz format Shape Files: (.shp) Building inventories MATLAB AB files: (.mat) Matrix and reference vectors for site condition maps, ground motion prediction models and various coefficient tables (vulnerability-ductility, casualty rates … ) GTOPO30: (.dem) Elevation grid data DTED: D: (dt0, dt1): High resolution elevation grid data, population distribution, distribution of building numbers, slope based Vs-30 grids.
Output file formats Ground motions and observed intensity Google Earth th KML: estimations, casualty and damaged buildings (.kml) distributions can be outputted as contour lines or polygons in KML format. MATLAB AB files: (.mat) The distributions stated above can also be outputted as grids represented by matrices and reference vectors in MATLAB file format. Graphic files: (.jpg, .gif) The distributions stated above can also be outputted as graphic files such JPEG or GIF. Shape Files: (shp) The output of the building damage analysis can be outputted as a Shape File containing number of buildings in each damage state or number of injuries in each severity level.
Graphical User Interface of ELER Earthquake Hazard
Earthquake Hazard Calculation Routine
Graphical User Interface of ELER Earthquake Hazard
Intensity distribution (ShakeMap) - 1999 Kocaeli earthquake Observed Intensity Distribution PGA/PGV-Intensity Correlations Regional Intensity Attenuation Wald et al. (1999) Relationship
Graphical User Interface of ELER Earthquake Hazard KML Outputs Intensity as Polygons Intensity as Lines
Verification with USGS ShakeMap ELER ShakeMap Only Phantom Stations Phantom and Actual Stations Phantom and Actual Stations with Site correction
September 29, 2004 Parkfield Earthquake, M5.0 Depth : 11.5km With strong motion data and site correction
L'Aquila Earthquake Magnitude: Mw 6.3 Coordinates Latitude: 42.38 o N Longitude:13.32 o E Depth: 2 km
Peak ground acceleration distribution map (%g)
Shaking intensity map (MMI)
Level 0 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology • Level 0 (Intensity based casualty assessment) Grid-based analysis Estimations in regional scale Based on gridded Landscan population data Only earthquake parameters are required from the user Samardjieva & Badal (2002) and Intesity vs.fatality rates
Level 0 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology
Level 1 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology • Level 1 (Intensity based building damage and casualty assessment) Grid-based analysis Estimations in regional and/or country scale Basic input data available for Europe, for crude estimations of building damage User defined building inventories are accomodated Intensity based structural vulnerabilites from Lagomarsiono and Giovinazzi (2006) (EMS-98 Vulnerability Classes, Vulnerability Indices (V, Q), Vulnerability Curves, Damage Probability Matrices)
REGIONAL SCALE BUILDING INVENTORY FOR LEVEL-1 ANALYSIS
Low-Rise RC Mid-Rise RC High-Rise RC Masonry Population MARMARA REGION INVENTORY
REGIONAL BUILDING INVENTORY GENERATION THROUGH PROXIES
REGIONAL BUILDING INVENTORY GENERATION THROUGH PROXIES • Sample areas from Corine database for specific landcover • Match these areas with Google Earth • Use image detection software to count the number of buildings in the same area • Get population count from Corine Database for the same area • Obtain number of people per building for the specific land cover • For known land use and population in a grid we can estimate the number of buildings, assign percentage building types (county and region dependent) • Verify with actual number of buildings per country (official figures) • Obtain grid-based number of buildings in different structural types from country-based statistics LAND COVER NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER BUILDING Continuous Urban Fabric 30-40 Discontinuous Urban Fabric 3-5 Nonagricultural Vegetation Areas 3-4 Heteregenous Agricultural Areas 2-4
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