Quarterly Hays Report Consolidated Independent 2.5Q19 School - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Quarterly Hays Report Consolidated Independent 2.5Q19 School District Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Economic Conditions – Austin Area (June 2019) 1.7% Unemployment Annual Rate Home Starts 20,038 new jobs National rate 0.87% U.S. 3.8% 302 fewer home Texas 3.6% starts than 2Q18 Austin MSA 2.7% Job Growth Hays County 2.9% 16,390 -0.4% 2 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

Austin New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 2Q19 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Leander ISD 2,320 2,152 3,123 13,212 2 Pflugerville ISD 1,801 1,734 1,783 10,222 3 Austin ISD 1,454 1,651 1,583 10,301 4 Hays CISD 1,551 1,571 2,373 49,949* 5 Georgetown ISD 1,531 1,519 2,856 15,941 6 Round Rock ISD 1,114 1,428 835 5,922 7 Manor ISD 1,181 1,183 1,789 15,058 8 Hutto ISD 1,012 1,007 1,090 7,812 9 Liberty Hill ISD 1,151 874 2,324 11,178 10 Del Valle ISD 745 807 1,273 33,193 11 Lake Travis ISD 599 701 1,741 5,302 12 Dripping Springs ISD 590 588 1,215 6,524 13 Jarrell ISD 365 369 499 7,587 14 San Marcos CISD 422 340 240 8,962 15 Bastrop ISD 217 172 1,592 19,025 16 Eanes ISD 80 101 91 154 17 Elgin ISD 84 75 275 5,976 18 Lago Vista ISD 63 56 699 3,496 19 Taylor ISD 43 33 185 871 20 Lockhart ISD 52 18 43 1,660 *Based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff 3

New Housing Activity Hays CISD 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Annual Starts Annual Closings Starts 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Closings 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q 203 302 257 472 387 354 422 1Q 206 222 278 404 398 290 319 2Q 240 293 309 326 458 491 419 2Q 217 296 300 359 337 357 553 3Q 279 335 456 412 416 374 3Q 209 286 306 416 439 330 4Q 251 242 370 187 214 322 4Q 271 312 379 191 326 340 Total 973 1,172 1,392 1,397 1,475 1,541 841 Total 903 1,116 1,263 1,370 1,500 1,317 872 • Hays CISD starts remained flat in 2Q19, and remained on pace from the same period in 2018 • District closings rose 73% over 1Q19 totals, as builders worked through available inventory resulting from the increase in starts in 1Q19 4

Annual Closing Distribution WHITE OAK PRES. Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 2Q19 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Annual Quarter Rank Subdivision Elementary Zone Closings Closings VDL Future 1 SUNFIELD TOM GREEN 306 123 553 4,463 2 BLANCO VISTA BLANCO VISTA 200 80 82 950 3 SHADOW CREEK PFLUGER 200 47 1 0 4 CREEKSIDE VILLAGE KYLE 153 78 0 0 5 AVANA CARPENTER HILL 88 21 21 0 6 CROSSWINDS (PFLUGER ELEM) PFLUGER 83 19 307 223 7 BUNTON CREEK VILLAGE FUENTES 72 29 146 68 8 WOODLANDS PARK TOBIAS 60 12 84 74 9 WHITE OAK PRESERVE BUDA 55 18 23 51 10 STONEFIELD TOM GREEN 53 15 58 0 TOTALS 1,270 442 1,275 5,829 5

Vacant Developed Lots Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 2Q19 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Annual Rank Subdivision Elementary Zone Closings VDL Future 1 SUNFIELD TOM GREEN 306 553 4,463 2 CROSSWINDS (PFLUGER ELEM) PFLUGER 83 307 223 3 BUNTON CREEK VILLAGE FUENTES 72 146 68 4 PLUM CREEK NEGLEY 41 131 3,378 5 SUNSET HILLS SCIENCE HALL 2 115 77 6 CREEKSIDE TOBIAS 20 108 40 7 6 CREEKS NEGLEY 0 95 1,757 8 HIGHLANDS AT GRIST MILL HEMPHILL 12 89 112 9 LA VENTANA CARPENTER HILL 16 88 0 10 STAGECOACH CROSSING KYLE 15 86 153 TOTALS 567 1,718 10,271 CREEKSIDE 6

Future Lots Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 2Q19 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Elementary Annual Rank Subdivision Zone Closings VDL Future 1 MCCOY BLANCO VISTA 0 0 8,200 2 LA SALLE HEMPHILL 0 0 7,000 3 NANCE RANCH NEGLEY 0 0 4,500 4 SUNFIELD TOM GREEN 306 553 4,463 5 PLUM CREEK NEGLEY 41 131 3,378 6 PECAN WOODS (HEMPHILL ELEM) HEMPHILL 0 0 2,985 7 SUNSET OAKS ‐ HAYS HEMPHILL 0 0 2,227 8 6 CREEKS NEGLEY 0 95 1,757 9 KYLE ESTATES EAST FUENTES 0 0 1,608 10 ANTHEM NEGLEY 0 0 1,600 TOTALS 347 779 37,718 SUNSET OAKS 7

Overall Housing Data By Elementary Attendance Zone Annual Quarter Annual Quarter Under Vacant Elementary Inventory Future Starts Starts Closings Closings Const. Dev. Lots BLANCO VISTA 189 53 200 80 53 100 82 9,150 BUDA 80 43 55 18 52 58 23 1,093 CAMINO REAL 22 3 16 2 9 9 123 2,442 CARPENTER HILL 118 29 125 27 65 80 195 867 ELM GROVE 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FUENTES 103 22 100 50 10 30 231 3,477 HEMPHILL 36 18 12 12 16 24 89 13,118 KYLE 166 15 169 85 16 59 86 927 NEGLEY 111 46 89 23 57 77 283 11,795 PFLUGER 158 33 284 67 27 52 310 420 SCIENCE HALL 18 6 3 3 5 16 115 967 TOBIAS 99 22 125 36 28 63 211 942 TOM GREEN 451 129 392 150 159 253 625 4,751 Grand Total 1,551 419 1,571 553 497 821 2,373 49,949 Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category 8

District Housing Overview • Hays CISD has over 2,300 lots available to build on • The district has nearly 50,000 future planned lots • Groundwork is currently underway on over 2,300 lots Active Subdivision Future Subdivision Groundwork Underway 9

Residential Activity Sunfield Sunfield • 6,467 total lots • 4,463 future lots • 553 vacant developed lots • 133 homes under construction • 1,282 occupied homes • Phase 2-12 (136 lots) groundwork nearing completion, delivering lots Sep 2019 • Phase 3-5B (121 lots) groundwork Sunfield Mutli-Family underway, delivering summer 2020 Phase • Phase 4 (800 lots) groundwork starting fall • 250 future apartment units 2-12 2019, first lots delivering fall 2020 • Plans currently under review with city • Building 300-350 homes per year • City anticipates approval fall 2019 • $220K-$425K Phase 4 Phase 3-5B 10

Residential Activity Plum Creek Plum Creek • 5,425 total lots • 3,378 future lots • 131 vacant developed lots • 18 homes under construction • 1,888 homes occupied • Peninsula Phase 2 (27 lots) groundwork nearing completion, Ph. 2-1 homes starting fall 2019 202 Lots • Phase 2 section 1 (202 lots) preliminary plan under review • Building 40-50 homes per year 11

Residential Activity 6 Creeks 6 Creeks • 2,100 total lots • 1,990 future lots • 95 vacant developed lots • 14 homes under construction • First home closings by end 2019 • Phase 1-1 delivered and homebuilding • Phase 1-3 (103 lots) groundwork underway, delivering late spring 2020 • Phase 1-2 (121 lots) under review • Building 60-80 homes per year Ph. 1-3 103 lots 12

Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level % Year (Oct.) ELC EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Growth 2015/16 0 129 510 1,298 1,406 1,481 1,438 1,455 1,468 1,434 1,457 1,402 1,542 1,356 1,186 1,105 18,667 2016/17 0 132 518 1,349 1,363 1,446 1,517 1,489 1,505 1,512 1,486 1,475 1,579 1,463 1,249 1,145 19,228 561 3.01% 2017/18 0 148 545 1,411 1,473 1,417 1,458 1,593 1,568 1,520 1,552 1,520 1,643 1,511 1,311 1,204 19,874 646 3.36% 2018/19 0 140 514 1,310 1,365 1,405 1,445 1,532 1,661 1,512 1,600 1,608 1,642 1,618 1,317 1,275 19,944 70 0.35% 2019/20 137 147 674 1,415 1,391 1,413 1,436 1,519 1,599 1,643 1,555 1,633 1,744 1,621 1,472 1,227 20,626 682 3.42% 2020/21 137 147 674 1,546 1,498 1,463 1,481 1,513 1,593 1,611 1,685 1,567 1,779 1,681 1,474 1,417 21,266 640 3.10% 2021/22 137 147 674 1,511 1,631 1,562 1,530 1,547 1,574 1,598 1,655 1,705 1,699 1,724 1,539 1,420 21,653 387 1.82% 2022/23 137 147 674 1,566 1,584 1,694 1,636 1,592 1,595 1,585 1,644 1,680 1,842 1,648 1,589 1,474 22,088 435 2.01% 2023/24 137 147 674 1,615 1,636 1,640 1,759 1,714 1,667 1,611 1,626 1,662 1,821 1,781 1,541 1,525 22,558 469 2.13% 2024/25 137 147 674 1,683 1,717 1,701 1,705 1,836 1,775 1,661 1,655 1,644 1,800 1,763 1,667 1,477 23,042 484 2.15% 2025/26 137 147 674 1,745 1,803 1,781 1,766 1,776 1,921 1,773 1,709 1,679 1,781 1,742 1,642 1,595 23,673 631 2.74% 2026/27 137 147 674 1,794 1,877 1,857 1,839 1,834 1,855 1,919 1,822 1,732 1,817 1,726 1,627 1,574 24,231 558 2.36% 2027/28 137 147 674 1,844 1,946 1,928 1,902 1,908 1,902 1,851 1,971 1,848 1,877 1,759 1,613 1,558 24,865 634 2.62% 2028/29 137 147 674 1,884 2,057 2,003 1,978 1,969 1,983 1,899 1,901 1,998 2,000 1,814 1,641 1,546 25,633 768 3.09% 2029/30 137 147 674 1,936 2,178 2,116 2,055 2,054 2,053 1,979 1,950 1,929 2,163 1,933 1,694 1,572 26,569 937 3.66% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year • 5 year growth = 2,416 • Fall 2024/25 enrollment = 23,042 • 10 year growth = 5,943 • Fall 2029/30 enrollment = 26,569 18