Prepared zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA by Dr. Robert zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA for Presentation to ISMOR-1998 L Helmbold 30 June 1998 US Army Concepts Analysis Agency 8120 Woodmont Avenue Bethesda, MD 20814-2797 COM: 301-897-0749 EMail: heImbold@caa.army.mil To examine trends in land combat that have persisted over extended periods of time (decades or centuries).
. Make maximum use zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA o f existing US Army Concept Analysis Agency (CAA) studies and data bases. Perform original analyses as necessary. Focus on land combat operations: Rates of advance Battle durations Personnel strengths and attrition Evolution of US Army force structure Lanchester parameter values 4 Frequency and severity of wars 2
. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Long-Term Trends in zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I. For the period zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA the Frequency and Severity of Interstate Wars C. Durations zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA For Interstate Wars: 1820.1979: process nt P steady average rate of war starts a. Interstate occurred as a Poisson about 0.7 interstate war starts per year. interstate wars tended to increase slightly. b. Total battle deaths in 8. Expect about 7 (4 to 10) interstate n'ars to start zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA of wars tended to dccrcase slightly. intcrstm d. Total partiripstian in interstate wars tcndud to incrcsrf at *bout the same rate PI world population. e . The ratio oftotal battle dcaths to total participation tended to decline, bmt total battle deaths tended to incrcase with incnnsing total participation. 2. Projections for the period 2000-2010: in this period. b. Expect the total battle deaths of the deadliest interstate war to bc about 200,000 (100,000 to 600.000). C. Expect the duration ofthe longest interstate v a r to be about 3 years ( I S to 10 years). d. Expect to I O t l l participation ofthc largrst intcritslc war to br about 13,000,000 kpm (5.000,OOO to 50.000.000 kpml.
ma S I U ~ G Y * N D mnczhwwmcw zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Theoretical number of zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA WE u p m M ~ R Interstate Wars-Poisson Distribution Fit Obs'd number of N years WIN war starts years WIN war starts - 0 80 78.7 1 52 55.8 2 22 19.8 3 5 4.7 4 1 0.8 over 4 0 0.1 mrbCIIc0 mK.5By"L""mN IIRL5"Ceh"E Interstate Wars-Total Battle Deaths 1920 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA ZWO 1910 1820 1840 1880 t980 1930 1960 1980 @ Y",*.,.hrW 4 I
IO0 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 2000 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 01 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 0 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1 8 M 1srlO 1860 t880 1900 1920 1940 1980 1980 YesrisriPmd l l . . . . . . . Z . . . 5
T H B m 4 R M Y S C m T " R S R ( T f f i Y A N P F O ~ ~ 6 V I I U A ~ N zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Total Particbation Versus Year War Started zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 10 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Interstate Wars-Ratio of Total Battle Deaths to 0 . 0 0 0 1 1820 1840 1900 1840' 1660 1BBo 1920 1960 1-0 2000 VearmrsU.lrd zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA m m , " * m I O , s R 1 r E " FIccZyU""II(IN [Interstate Wars-Total Battle Deaths Versus Total Particioationh 6
m"md"*L""noN zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA ---,- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA m*Iursc6MblPm zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA STMTBDy*ND zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA E%- m z IInterstate Wars-Proiected Probabilitv of Not More Than 1 J zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA e % - ~ , H P ~ A W Y S ~ ~ " O I ~ E G Y I M ) F O I C L E V U A ~ ~ N -1-1- Interstate Wars-Projected Probability That Total Battle Deaths in the Deadliest Interstate War of the Period 2000-2010 Will Be Less Than D 7
I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA THE zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Interstate Wars-Projected Probability That the Longest zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA mncEEyAwmom zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA mmm m R VSI--R OB zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1 War of the Period 2000-2010 Will Be Less Than Y I [Interstate 1 02 0 1 100 Interstate Wars-Projected Probability That Total Participation in the Largest Interstate War of the Period 2000-2010 Will Be Less Than P L 1,000,000 8
. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Severity of civil wars zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA For Civil Wars: civil wars tended to be nearly constant. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1. For the period 1820-1979: Civil war starts occurred as P a . Poisson process, but at a gradually increasing war stnrts per year. average rate, which currently is about 1 civil b. Total battle deaths in civil wars tended to increase at about thc same rate as world population Durations of civil wars tended to decrease. c d . Total participation in The ratio of total battle deaths to total participation tended to increase at about e . P. Expeet the duration of the longest civil war to be about 8 years (2.5 to zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA the same rate as world population, and total batlle deaths tended to increase with increasing total participation. 2. Projections for the period 2000-2010: a. Expect about 10 (7 to 13) civil wars to start in this period. the total battle deaths of the dudliest civil War to be about 300.000 b. Erpea (100.000 to 600,OOO). 20 years). to total participation of thc largest civil war l o be ahout 10,000,000 kpm d . Expen (3,000,000 to 40,000,000 kpm). A THf VI*Ul~.v"rR Fox m r E G I * N D FO"CEI"U""l*ON ICivil Wars--Cumulative Number of Wars Since 1820) 140 120 ; 100 - i 9 8 0 n S m i 40 0 20 2WO 1020 1060 1800 1920 1860 1900 1840 1800 1940 @ Ysarvarsbmd . . Y . , . I U . I I 9
- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA N zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 4 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 0.1 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Obs'd number of Theoretical number of years w/N war starts years w/N war starts 84 83.6 0 56 53.1 1 12 18.0 2 6 4.3 3 2 0.8 over 4 0 \Civil Wars-Total Battle Deaths Versus Year War Startedi zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA mm"~ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA m m ~ m "WIND ~ ~ C I E Y A L U A ~ C W 1o.ooo.ow 1.wo.ow 10,wo 3 """ .,""" , 1900 leS0 1820 1840 18W 1BBO 1820 , 1940 1980 2000 Yurwsr.mrtld
ICivil Wars- Duration of the War Versus Year War Started zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 10 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 0.1 Yearwar .hrted zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 001 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I920 1940 2WO 1860 19M1 1820 1840 1880 1900 leBD 0 Yu,.II I . " zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA m"M$(lFNrQ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA mr m T E m 1 " E m~CTE""'""n0N IM) Wars-Total Particiuation Versus Year War Started1 (Civil 1820 1840 1860 1940 1960 2WO 1880 1900 1920 1880 Ye.rwN.lld H
m-scmil"" zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA [Civil Wars--Ratio of Total Battle Deaths to Total Participation zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Sn*IBGYANDPO~C.58V.""rlON zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA m - Versus Year War Started I 1840 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA lSs0 laso lseo 1820 1920 2wo 1900 1940 1960 Yesrnrnumd U - . . . . . . " [Civil Wars-Total Battle Deaths Versus Total Participation 0 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA i.m.000 10 I . . 00 0 0 0 1 ! 3 1 w P D o a 3 c' 1o.ow 1.wo
zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA c zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Probability of Not More Than zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA N) zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Tl(r zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA IOICEEVALUAnON zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA m - a s AWITSCBKIEI FOB S W d r E G ~ * N D ICivil Wars--Projected 1 Civil Wars in the Period 2000-2010 I 2 4 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 6 8 mr " m m TRT L5"wrScE- m"CEw"L""II0N the 1 I Civil Wars-Projected Probability That Total Battle Deaths i n Civil War of the Period 2000-2010 Will Be Less Than D I (Bloodiest iooaoo 1.w0.000 1o.ooo.wo 10,ODO Teu1b.m de.Bs.D 1 3
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