Ensuring consistency between LSE load forecasts for CRR and Resource - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

California Independent System Operator Corporation Ensuring consistency between LSE load forecasts for CRR and Resource Adequacy (RA) purposes Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007 Saurabh Monga Market Operations - CRR Team

California Independent System Operator Corporation CRR Monthly Allocation Process � Participants Monthly Eligible Quantity based on Forecasted Load. � Participants upload hourly forecasted load into CRR system during the start of monthly process. � CAISO intends to verify the submitted load with the RA load forecasts submitted to CPUC. � Entities have an incentive to show a lower forecast to the CEC for RA process so that they have to procure less capacity. CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 2

California Independent System Operator Corporation Resource Adequacy Process � Year Ahead Process: – CPUC jurisdiction entities provide CEC with load data for all 12 months of the upcoming year in April month of the current year. – During this process, CEC makes adjustments to the load data and provides each entity with its coincident peak target for the annual RA showing process. – Entities use this data for their annual RA showing. – Under new legislature, Non Jurisdiction entities will provide non coincident peak data for each month of the upcoming year. CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 3

California Independent System Operator Corporation Resource Adequacy Process � Month Ahead Process: – 60 days ahead of the compliance month, entities submit forecasted load data to CEC. – Year ahead numbers are the starting point of the monthly RA process and are adjusted for any possible load migration. – Non jurisdiction entities do not participate in the month ahead RA process. CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 4

California Independent System Operator Corporation CAISO’s proposal for load forecast verification � CAISO proposes to use the Month ahead RA load forecasts of CPUC jurisdiction entities for verifying the submitted load data. � For non CPUC entities, CAISO plans on using the Year ahead forecasts as a starting point for verification process. � CAISO’s proposal is based on the following items: – Data: CEC intends to provide CAISO non coincident peak for each entity. – Methodology: All CPUC jurisdiction entities use a common CPUC endorsed forecasting methodology. – Timing: CAISO can obtain this data from the CEC in a timely manner as shown on next slide. CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 5

California Independent System Operator Corporation Timing of the process 45 days LSEs submit monthly peak data to CEC for LSEs submit RA purposes for month forecasted load to ‘i’ CAISO CRR system Process through MUI SFTs for Month ‘i’ For Month ‘i’ Month ‘i’ Month ‘i’-1 CEC sends report to CEC makes CAISO per LSE adjustments to data and prepares final RA showing targets Month ‘i’-2 60 Days CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 6

California Independent System Operator Corporation Verifying Off Peak hours load forecasts � CEC does not have a Time Of Use element to the RA process. � CAISO proposes to use a scaling factor to calculate the Off peak data from RA forecast data. CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 7

California Independent System Operator Corporation Questions / Comments CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 8