Pr e par ing for Br e xit in r ur al Wale s - a c ha lle ng e o f de c isio n-ma king unde r unc e rta inty Ja ne t Dwye r, Pro fe sso r o f Rura l Po lic y a nd Dire c to r o f CCRI , Unive rsity o f Glo uc e ste rshire 13 F e b rua ry 2018 @ WCfPP
Pr e par ing for Br e xit in r ur al Wale s T he study • Sta te o f We lsh a g ric ulture a nd rura l a re a s • T he Bre xit pro c e ss – sc o ping future sc e na rio s • Co mpa riso n a c ro ss sc e na rio s – c o mmo n po ints, c o ntra sts • Po lic y sug g e stio ns • @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit in rura l Wa le s 2
T he study Ma y - No ve mb e r 2017 • De sk-b a se d a na lysis + inte rvie ws / me e ting s with WG o ffic ia ls • & the me d sta ke ho lde r wo rking g ro ups Cha sing a mo ving a nd o b sc ure ta rg e t – no thing is c e rta in • ‘ Be st g ue sse s’ o n Bre xit pro c e ss a nd de a l ma y still pro ve wro ng • Se e king de g re e s o f like liho o d c o nsiste nt the me s, • stra te g ic re spo nse @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 3
Co nte xt State of We lsh agr ic ultur e and r ur al ar e as @ WCfPP
State of We lsh r ur al ar e as E c o no mic ally and so c ially E nvir o nme ntally Rural Wale s has stro ng and we ak A hig h-q uality rural e nviro nme nt is po ints . K e y se c to rs inc lude re c o ve ring slo wly fro m pa st pre ssure s, b ut vulne ra b le to c ha ng e pub lic se c to r • to urism • 30% is pro te c te d a re a • SME ma nufa c turing a nd c ra fts • Ma jo r so urc e o f drinking wa te r to F o o d b usine sse s • • Wa le s a nd E ng la nd 16 ye a rs a g o , in re mo te rura l ma rke t Ne g a tive tre nds in b irds & so me • to wns > 60% o f re g iste re d b usine sse s prio rity ha b ita ts, b ut o the r indic a to rs we re a sso c ia te d with fa rming (L UC) mo ving in a po sitive dire c tio n IWA (2015) sug g e sts a la c k o f E c o syste m se rvic e s de pe nd upo n me dium-size d firms in rura l a re a s • se nsitive la nd ma na g e me nt linke d to po o r infra struc ture & se rvic e s F lo o d mitig a tio n & ma na g e me nt • a n inc re a sing issue o f c o nc e rn Une mplo yme nt is lo w Rura l po ve rty is a n issue fo r re mo te e lde rly ho use ho lds @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 5
Rur al var iations @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 6
AGRICUL T URE F ar m type s by land ar e a No te – e xc lude s c o mmo ns a re a @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 7
We lsh F ar ms Most far ms he avily de pe nde nt upon public suppor t Gra zing live sto c k fa rms de pe nd upo n b o th pilla r 1 a nd pilla r 2 a id • Wide ra ng e o f pe rfo rma nc e sta nda rds • Sig nific a nt so c ia l, we lfa re a nd he a lth c o nc e rns a mo ng fa rm fa milie s, • pa rtic ula rly in Ca rma rthe nshire , Po wys a nd Gwyne dd Major pr oduc ts – tr ading patte r ns and tr e nds She e pme a t do mina te s pro duc tio n, mo st is e xpo rte d to E U • Mo re b e e f a nd da iry c o nsume d in UK , ke y impo rts fro m I re la nd • Ho rtic ulture a nd po ultry sma ll b ut with g ro wth po te ntia l – de pe nds • upo n input / e ne rg y pric e tre nds T o urism / le isure is a n impo rta nt inc o me fo r so me ; o ff-fa rm inc o me • he lps >40% o f fa rm ho use ho lds F o re stry sho ws po te ntia l, if fue l pric e s rise • @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 8
Ave r age F ar m Busine ss Inc ome s, Wale s @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 9
We lsh food se c tor 70% o f We lsh fo o d a nd drink b usine sse s a re rura l, ma ny a re • ve ry sma ll, pa rtic ula rly in so me c o untie s 4 ma jo r c o mpa nie s c o ve r 90% live sto c k sla ug hte re d in Wa le s, • o the rs a lo ng the b o rde r in E ng la nd Summa ry He avy de pe nde nc e o f e nvir o nme ntal land manage me nt o n be e f and she e p far ming, in tur n de pe nde nt o n CAP funds He avy de pe nde nc e o f r ur al e c o no mie s o n public se c to r jo bs - the se fe a ture s stro ng e st in No rth, Mid a nd We st Wa le s - So uth Wa le s a nd No rth-e a st mo re dive rse , mo re o ptio ns, c lo se r to pe o ple a nd ma rke ts @ WCfPP Pre se nta tio n title 10
Bre xit o ptio ns Sc e nar ios of c hange @ WCfPP
Ke y points shaping Br e xit impac ts 1. F utur e tr ading c o nditio ns T a riffs b e twe e n UK a nd E U : 0% - 40%, e ve n 60% • o we r ta riff b a rrie rs with third c o untrie s ? (no t fo r 10 ye a rs, L • pe rha ps) 2. F utur e public funding to far ms and r ur al ar e as Sa me , lo we r o r hig he r ? • Ne w prio ritie s a nd g o a ls a lre a dy sig na lle d • 3. Re g ula to ry re g ime & wide r e c o no mic c o nditio ns Stro ng o r we a k ? • @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 12
Sc e na r ios: sta tus quo or sig nific a nt c ha ng e Sc e na rio T ra de outc ome Dome stic a g ri- outc ome for Re g ula tory numbe r for UK- E U tra de rura l support UK- othe r tra de outc ome outc ome L ittle c ha ng e Sig nific a nt No c ha ng e No c ha ng e 1 fo r 5-10 ye a rs re duc tio n 2 L ittle c ha ng e Ma inta ine d a t No c ha ng e No c ha ng e for 5- 10 ye a rs c urre nt le ve ls 3 T a riffs, Sig nific a nt Ne w de a ls, Re la xing of re duc ing tra de re duc tion c he a pe r some both wa ys imports sta nda rds T a riffs, Ma inta ine d a t Ne w de a ls, Re la xing o f 4 re duc ing tra de c urre nt le ve ls c he a pe r so me b o th wa ys impo rts sta nda rds @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 13
Common the me s fr om sc e nar ios L ike ly de c line in she e p pro duc tio n a fte r a sho rt-te rm ‘ he yda y’ , • ne e d to re struc ture & re -o rie nta te F o o d c ha in re spo nse will b e ke y: lo ya lty a nd willing ne ss to • inve st in Wa le s + We lsh pro duc t, lo ng e r-te rm pric ing a nd ma rke t g ro wth L a rg e r o pe ra to rs in the se c to r will a ntic ipa te a nd re spo nd • q uic kly to c ha ng e Pub lic se c to r – inc re a sing g a p b e twe e n de ma nd a nd supply • in rura l se rvic e s (e sp. he a lth & so c ia l c a re ) Whilst ha rdly visib le in sta tistic s, a g ric ulture re ma ins a ke y drive r • o f: – E c o no mic a nd c o mmunity via b ility in re mo te a re a s – L a nd-use : implic a tio ns o f fe we r she e p, le ss g ra zing Oppo rtunitie s fo r ne w la nd use s: fo re stry, ho rtic ulture , vine s, • e ne rg y a nd le isure , ho using ? @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 14
Contr asts ac r oss Wale s No rth, mid a nd we st Wa le s like ly to suffe r stro ng e r ne g a tive • e c o no mic , so c ia l a nd e nviro nme nta l impa c ts; in so uth a nd e a st, mo re dive rse impa c ts – g ro wing so c ia l ne e ds in mo re iso la te d se tting s E nviro nme nta l c ha lle ng e s in b o th dire c tio ns – unde r- • ma na g e me nt in no rth, mid a nd we st; po ssib le issue s fro m c o nc e ntra tio n a nd g ro wth in da irying , indo o r live sto c k, e ne rg y in so uth Po sitive o ppo rtunitie s within a g ric ulture , a nd in o the r se c to rs • e .g . fo re stry, a dding va lue – de pe nds upo n susta ina b le de sig n a nd c re a tive e ntre pre ne urship: ne w ide a s, stro ng ne two rks – so me a re a s will b e b e tte r pla c e d tha n o the rs to do this @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 15
Po lic y sug g e stio ns Pr ior itie s for F utur e Re silie nc e @ WCfPP
Prioritie s – Ada pta tion a nd a ne w F ra me work 1. ADAPT AT ION Pre pa re We lsh fa rms, la nd ma na g e me nt a nd rura l b usine sse s fo r a ro c ky ride : Up-skilling, de ve lo ping c o llabo r ative c apac ity, impr o ving e ffic ie nc y, far m and c o mmunity-le ve l c o ping str ate gie s, e nvir o nme nt-pr o ofing o f c hange s I nc re a se a g ri-fo o d se c to r a nd c o mmunity re silie nc e thro ug h mo re a c tive lo ng -te rm pa rtne rship b e twe e n We lsh Go ve rnme nt a nd c o mme rc ia l / so c ia l a c to rs in fo o d, pub lic se rvic e s a nd fina nc ia l se c to rs Mo r e par tne r ship wo r king be twe e n go ve r nme nt and industr y, go ve r nme nt and c o mmunitie s, and ke y se c to r s @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 17
Prioritie s – Ada pta tion a nd a ne w F ra me work 2. F UT URE SUPPORT F RAME WORK De ve lo p a ne w, b e spo ke a ppro a c h to pub lic suppo rt, to ma inta in a nd e nha nc e na tura l re so urc e s a nd rura l vita lity b y la nd ma na g e rs a nd rura l c o mmunitie s a c ro ss rura l Wa le s, fo r the b e ne fit o f c urre nt a nd future g e ne ra tio ns A lo ng-te r m, natur al r e so ur c e s and viable landsc ape s sc he me fo r all Wale s A fle xible , lo c ally-tailor e d appr o ac h, de ve lo pe d with far me r s, fo r e ste r s and o the r stake ho lde r s, giving spac e fo r pr ivate funding as we ll as public Cle ar , agr e e d natio nal tar ge ts @ WCfPP Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit 18
T hank you - Diolc h yn fawr iawn jdwye r@ g lo s.ac .uk www.wc pp.or g.uk @ WCfPP Ca rdiff Unive rsity, 10/ 12 Muse um Pla c e . Ca rdiff, CF 103BG Prifysg o l Ca e rdydd, 10/ 12 Pla s yr Amg ue ddfa , Ca e rdydd, CF 103BG
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