Population Trends in North Carolina & Implications for Transportation NC Department of Transportation July 12, 2019 Mike Cline, PhD State Demographer Office of State Budget & Management, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section 1
Population Growth 2
North Carolina Population vs. Other States 9 th Largest State at 10.4 Million 4 th Largest Population Gain (848,000 people), April 2010 to July 2018 Population Estimate Change, 2010-2018 Geographic Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent United States 308,758,105 327,167,434 18,409,329 6.0 California 37,254,523 39,557,045 2,302,522 6.2 Texas 25,146,114 28,701,845 3,555,731 14.1 Florida 18,804,580 21,299,325 2,494,745 13.3 New York 19,378,124 19,542,209 164,085 0.8 Pennsylvania 12,702,873 12,807,060 104,187 0.8 Illinois 12,831,572 12,741,080 -90,492 -0.7 Ohio 11,536,757 11,689,442 152,685 1.3 Georgia 9,688,709 10,519,475 830,766 8.6 North Carolina 9,535,736 10,383,620 847,884 8.9 Michigan 9,884,117 9,995,915 111,798 1.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. 3
North Carolina Population Change – Historic and Projected North Carolina Population 1970 – 2010 and Projected Through 2038 Millions of People 12.8 11.8 10.6 9.5 8.0 6.6 5.9 5.1 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2038 Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses; OSBM Population Projections, 2018 Vintage. 4
In-Migration Now Major Component of Population Growth Components of Population Change in North Carolina by Period, 1950 - 2018 5
Net Migration More Migration to North Carolina vs Neighbors in Recent Years Net Domestic and International Migration, April 2010 to July 2018 International Domestic 560,003 NORTH CAROLINA 72% 28% 387,595 GEORGIA 53% 47% 359,822 SOUTH CAROLINA 87% 13% 290,164 TENNESSEE 76% 24% 200,978 VIRGINIA Source: US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. 6
Urbanization 7
Population Change in North Carolina by Urban/Rural Status, 2000-2010 Over Half the Population and Almost All Population Growth in Major Urban Areas -- Areas of 50,000 or More -- Population Population Change 53% 41% 34% 32% 22% 12% 3% 2% Charlotte/Raleigh UA All Other UA* Urban Clusters* Rural Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census *Urbanized Areas (UA) as defined in 2010. For this graph, the newly defined urbanized areas of New Bern and North Myrtle Beach- Socastee were included in the Urban Cluster totals. Urbanized Areas are statistical areas of 50,000 or more people while Urban Clusters include at least 2,500 but no more than 49,999 people. These areas do not follow legal (i.e. municipal) boundaries. The rural 8 growth proportion may be slightly larger as this does not account for rural areas in 2000 that became urban in 2010.
Population Change by County - April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2017 Population Growth in NC Since 2010 Has Been Robust, But Uneven NCDOT DIVISIONS IN RED 9
Projected Population Change, July 1, 2019 – July 1, 2038 Projected Growth in Majority of NC Counties NCDOT DIVISIONS IN RED 10
NCDOT Division Growth as a Percent of State Growth Divisions 5 and 10 Will Account for 51.5% of All Growth, 2019 – 2038 1 - Edenton 0.5% 6 - Fayetteville 0.9% Projected 2.3 Million People Added to North Carolina 2 - Greenville 1.6% 11 - Wilkesboro 1.8% 14 - Sylva 3.3% 13 - Asheville 3.8% 8 - Carthage 4.2% 4 - Wilson 4.4% 9 - Winston-Salem 5.2% 12 - Gastonia 5.6% 7 - Greensboro 8.3% 3 - Wilmington 9.0% 5 - Raleigh-Durham 25.1% 10 - Charlotte 26.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 11 Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, Population Projections, Vintage 2018.
Population Aging 12
Projected Percent Population Change by Age Group, 2019-2038 Population 65 and Over is Projected to Grow More Than 2 1/2 Times Faster Than Total Population in the Next 19 years Total 21.7% 65+ 55.3% 55-64 7.7% 25-54 20.1% 18-24 8.5% 5-17 11.3% <5 18.5% Source: OSBM, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section, Population Projections, Vintage 2018. 13
Population in North Carolina by Age, 2019 and 2038 1,800,000 2019 2038 1,600,000 Median Age: 1,400,000 2019: 39 2038: 41 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 <5 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget & Management, Population Projections, Vintage 2018. 14
Race/Ethnic Diversification 15
North Carolina’s Future Growth Is More Diverse Projected Population Change from 2019 to 2038 by Race/Ethnic Group Non-Hispanic Non-White includes: Black, Asian, American Indian, and those identifying as Two/ More Races 851,340 802,835 Projected 2.3 Million Total Growth 624,449 37% of 35% of 27% of Growth Growth Growth NonHispanic White NonHispanic NonWhite Hispanic Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, Population Projections, Vintage 2018. 16
Population by Hispanic Origin & Race 2038 2017 70% 58% 70% 62% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 29% 40% 30% 27% 30% 14% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% NH White NH Non- Hispanic NH White NH Non- Hispanic White White NH = nonHispanic 10.3 Million 12.8 Million Two or Two or More More 2% Black 4% 22% White 71% White Black 68% 22% Asian Asian 3% 4% Am. Indian Am. Indian 2% 2% 17 Source: NC OSBM Population Estimates, Vintage 2017 and Population Projections, Vintage 2018.
Median Household Incomes by Race/Ethnicity Black and Hispanic Incomes are 60-65% of NH White Households NH Asian, $68,933 NH White, $53,157 All Households, $46,868 Hispanic, $34,708 NH Black, $32,807 1 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011-2015 18
Implications for Transportation 19
Demographic Challenges for Transportation • Population growth • More drivers • More VMT • More demand on all modes of transportation • Urbanization • Increased congestion • Increased demand for alternative modes of transportation • Need to maintain transportation system in rural areas 20
Demographic Challenges (Continued) • Aging & race/ethnic change • Attenuate rate of growth in drivers & VMT • Increase demand for alternative transportation modes • Elderly giving up driving will still need transportation • Retired drivers increase road use in non-peak commute hours • Proportionally fewer drivers in “risky” ages suggest overall decline in crash rates • More elderly drivers suggest increase in elderly involved in fatalities (due to frailty of people involved in crashes not severity of crash) 21
For Municipal & County Population Estimates and County Population Projections, See: https://www.osbm.nc.gov/facts-figures/demographics Make NC Count! https://census.nc.gov/ Thank You! Michael (Mike) E. Cline State Demographer Demographic & Economic Analysis Section North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management Michael.Cline@osbm.nc.gov 919-807-4756 22
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