Emerging Energy Issues and North Carolina Trends April 3, 2019 Ta - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Emerging Energy Issues and North Carolina Trends April 3, 2019

Ta Table of Contents • Methodology • Voter Intensity Overview • NC Trends • Ideological Overview • Clean Energy Alternative Issue Set • Voter Sentiment • Demographic Overview

Me Metho thodo dology This poll of 600 registered voters living in North Carolina was conducted via telephone by professional interviewers over the course of two nights, March 17 & 18, 2019. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter participation from past midterm/Presidential General Election cycles. The poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.00% at a 95% confidence interval. Paul Shumaker served as project manager and Hays Shumaker as research coordinator.

Vo Voter Intensity N=600 Always Almost Always Most of the time 80.3% 80.7% 80.2% 79.2% 12.5% 10.5% 10.3% 9.9% 9.5% 9.2% 9.5% 8.3% A L W A YS A L M O ST A L W A YS MO ST O F THE TIME R EP U BL I C A N D EMO C RA T U N A F F I L I A ED Always Almost Always Most of the time 84.6% 84.3% 82.5% 79.8% 75.3% 12.1% 12.6% 11.0% 9.4% 8.9% 9.2% 8.5% 7.9% 7.9% 6.0% L I BER A L MO D ERA TE C O NSER V A T IV E V O T E D EM O C R A T V O T E R EP U BL I C A N

NC NC Voter er Regi egistr trati tion Tren ends 47.52% 45.93% 45.79% 44.73% 43.28% 41.92% 41.21% 40.51% 39.70% 39.15% 38.17% 38.10% 37.6% 34.70% 34.53% 31.98% 32.00% 32.1% 31.63% 30.97% 31.07% 30.59% 30.63% 30.49% 30.38% 30.30% 30.3% 30.00% 29.97% 30.04% 29.90% 28.86% 28.19% 27.59% 25.75% 23.64% 22.23% 19.37% 17.96% May 2004 May 2006 November November November November November April 2016 November April 2017 May 2018 November March 2019 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 2018 Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated

NC NC Id Ideo eologi gical Tren ends 79.1% 76.3% 75.6% 75.0% 75.0% 74.8% 74.0% 74.1% 70.4% 63.8% 62.9% 59.2% 44.0% 42.0% 33.7% 33.7% 32.0% 29.5% 29.0% 29.0% 28.8% 26.0% 24.8% 24.0% 22.0% 22.7% 23.0% 23.0% 23.1% 19.7% 21.5% 20.0% 16.2% 15.2% 16.4% 16.4% 17.6% 14.5% 14.4% 11.4% 3.5% 3.0% September October October September September August 2010 October October August 2015 April 2016 September March 2019 1996 1998 2000 2004 2008 2012 2014 2018 -12.2% -16.5% -18.7% -19.2% -19.5% -24.0% North Carolina Democrats Republicans Unaffilated

Pa Partisan Ideological Breaks 21.5% 41.0% NC 33.0% 19.5% 22.0% 36.9% Unaffiliated 39.3% 14.9% -16.5% 18.1% Democrat 43.2% 34.6% 76.3% 79.8% Republican 12.7% 3.5% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Net Dif. Conservative Moderate Liberal

Id Ideo eologi gical In Inten ensity y Profile N=600 NC Unaffiliated Democrat Republican 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very Lib. Somewhat Lib. Moderate Somewhat Cons. Very Cons. DK/Refused Lived in NC Entire Life Always Republican Lived in NC>20 Years Usually Republican Lived in NC 11-20 Years Splits Ticket Lived in NC 6-10 Years Usually Democrat Lived in NC <5 Years Always Democrat 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very Lib. Somewhat Lib. Moderate Very Lib. Somewhat Lib. Moderate Somewhat Cons. Very Cons. DK/Refused Somewhat Cons. Very Cons. DK/Refused

Wo Would you be more likely to support or oppose a lawmaker or candidate who su supports s polici cies that encourage the development of more fossil fuel energy such ch as as coal al an and oil? il? 3 Year Trend Data Support Oppose DK/Refused 52.3% 49.3% 47.2% 44.8% 43.2% 42.5% 9.7% 5.8% 5.2% N=600 2017 N=600 2018 N=600 2019

Wo Would you be more likely to support or oppose a lawmaker or candidate who supports polici cies that encourage the development of more fossil fuel energy such ch as coal and oil? 2019 Data Set N=600 47.2% 43.2% 9.7% SU P P O R T O P P O SE D K/REFUSED N= Support Oppose DK/Refused N= Support Oppose DK/Refused Republican 173 74.0% 15.6% 10.4% NC <5 Years 24 41.7% 41.7% 16.6% Democrat 243 30.0% 63.4% 6.6% NC 6-10 Years 38 23.7% 65.8% 10.5% Unaffiliated 168 45.8% 41.1% 13.1% NC 11-20 Years 94 34.0% 57.4% 8.5% Vote Democratic 282 23.8% 70.2% 6.0% NC>20 Years 217 48.4% 42.9% 8.8% Vote Republican 242 77.3% 11.6% 11.2% NC Entire Life 211 55.9% 34.1% 10.0% Vote Undecided 76 38.2% 43.4% 18.4% Male 282 53.9% 37.9% 8.2% Female 318 41.2% 47.8% 11.0% Urban 92 33.7% 57.6% 8.7% Suburban White Suburban 241 42.7% 48.1% 9.1% 93 38.7% 52.7% 8.6% Female Rural 247 55.5% 34.4% 10.1%

Wo Would you be more likely to support or oppose a lawmaker or candidate who supports polici cies that encourage renewable energy options such ch as wind, solar, and waste to energy tech chnologies? 5 Year Trend Data 86.8% 86.5% 85.2% 84.8% 83.2% 11.8% 10.6% 10.5% 10.3% 9.2% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 3.0% 2.9% N=800 2015 N=800 2016 N=600 2017 N=600 2018 N=600 2019 Support Oppose DK/Refused

Wo Would you be more likely to support or oppose a lawmaker or candidate who supports polici cies that encourage renewable energy options such ch as wind, solar, and waste to energy tech chnologies? 2019 Data Set N=600 84.8% 10.5% 4.7% SU P P O R T O P P O SE D K/REFUSED N= Support Oppose DK/Refused N= Support Oppose DK/Refused Republican 173 75.7% 16.8% 7.5% NC <5 Years 24 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Democrat 243 93.4% 4.9% 1.6% Unaffiliated 168 81.0% 12.5% 6.5% NC 6-10 Years 38 89.5% 10.5% 0.0% Vote Democratic 282 94.7% 3.2% 2.1% NC 11-20 Years 94 87.2% 6.4% 6.4% Vote Republican 242 71.9% 19.8% 8.3% NC>20 Years 217 83.4% 11.5% 5.1% Vote Undecided 76 89.5% 7.9% 2.6% Male 282 82.6% 13.1% 4.3% Urban 92 92.4% 4.3% 3.3% Female 318 86.8% 8.2% 5.0% Suburban 241 83.4% 11.6% 5.0% Suburban White 93 86.0% 8.6% 5.4% Rural 247 84.6% 11.3% 4.0% Female

Wo Would you be more likely to support or oppose a lawmaker or candidate wh who su supports s legisl slation that would provide additional ways s for home or business owners to finance ce energy effici ciency cy upgrades such ch as improved in insulat latio ion, lig lightin ing, or win indows? 5 Year Trend Data 88.8% 88.5% 87.6% 87.3% 84.9% 10.8% 9.5% 8.9% 6.3% 5.7% 5.5% 5.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% N=800 2015 N=800 2016 N=600 2017 N=600 2018 N=600 2019 Support Oppose DK/Refused

Wo Would you be more likely to support or oppose a lawmaker or candidate wh who su supports s legisl slation that would provide additional ways s for home or business owners to finance ce energy effici ciency cy upgrades such ch as improved in insulat latio ion, lig lightin ing, or win indows? 2019 Data Set N=600 88.5% 6.3% 5.2% SU P P O R T O P P O SE D K/REFUSED N= Support Oppose DK/Refused N= Support Oppose DK/Refused Republican 173 80.3% 9.2% 10.4% NC <5 Years 24 95.8% 0.0% 4.2% Democrat 243 96.7% 2.5% 0.8% NC 6-10 Years 38 92.1% 7.9% 0.0% Unaffiliated 168 85.7% 7.7% 6.5% Vote Democratic 282 96.1% 2.5% 1.4% NC 11-20 Years 94 93.6% 3.2% 3.2% NC>20 Years 217 83.9% 7.8% 8.3% Vote Republican 242 78.9% 11.6% 9.5% NC Entire Life 211 89.1% 7.1% 3.8% Vote Undecided 76 90.8% 3.9% 5.3% Male 282 89.0% 6.0% 5.0% Urban 92 94.6% 1.1% 4.3% Female 318 88.2% 6.6% 5.3% Suburban 241 86.7% 6.6% 6.6% Suburban White 93 89.2% 5.4% 5.4% Rural 247 87.4% 8.5% 4.0% Female

Wo Would you be more likely to support or oppose a lawmaker or candidate wh who supports incr creasing acce ccess to natural gas resource ces by placi cing a priority on pipeline development and new pipeline co construct ction? 3 Year Trend Data Support Oppose DK/Refused 62.5% 55.8% 55.8% 34.5% 34.5% 29.3% 9.7% 9.7% 8.7% N=600 2017 N=600 2018 N=600 2019

Wo Would you be more likely to support or oppose a lawmaker or candidate wh who supports incr creasing acce ccess to natural gas resource ces by placi cing a priority on pipeline development and new pipeline co construct ction? 2019 Data Set N=600 62.5% 29.3% 8.7% SU P P O R T O P P O SE D K/REFUSED N= Support Oppose DK/Refused N= Support Oppose DK/Refused Republican 173 81.5% 10.4% 8.1% NC <5 Years 24 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% Democrat 243 48.6% 42.8% 8.6% NC 6-10 Years 38 57.9% 34.2% 7.9% Unaffiliated 168 63.7% 31.0% 5.4% Vote Democratic 282 43.3% 46.5% 10.3% NC 11-20 Years 94 51.1% 35.1% 13.8% NC>20 Years 217 61.8% 30.9% 7.4% Vote Republican 242 87.6% 7.4% 5.0% NC Entire Life 211 68.2% 23.7% 8.1% Vote Undecided 76 53.9% 35.5% 10.5% Male 282 72.0% 19.9% 8.2% Urban 92 46.7% 43.5% 9.8% Female 318 54.1% 37.7% 8.2% Suburban 241 61.4% 29.9% 8.7% Suburban White 93 50.5% 41.9% 7.5% Rural 247 68.0% 24.7% 7.3% Female