Planning for Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaptation Cheryl Laskowski, Ph.D. August 21, 2013
Complimentary Responses to Climate Change Definitions > Mitigation: Reduce GHG emissions, increase GHG sinks. > Adaptation: Reduce impacts from Greenhouse Gas climate change Emissions Climate Change Impacts Response Mitigation Adaptation 2
Complimentary Responses to Climate Change Definitions > Mitigation: Reduce GHG emissions, increase GHG sinks. > Adaptation: Reduce impacts from Greenhouse Gas climate change Emissions Climate Change Impacts Response Mitigation Adaptation 3
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Inventory Inventory Benefits > Understanding where your emissions come from > Identifying areas to reduce emissions Facilities - Refrigerants Facilities - Natural Gas 2% Electricity 1% 11% Transport - Transport - Rail Electricity Vanpool 20% 3% Transport - Purchased Transport - 2% Gasoline Bus 2% Transport - Non-Revenue Transport - 3% CNG 54% 5
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Inventory Inventory Benefits > Monitor performance over time 500,000 400,000 Metric Tons CO2e 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 6
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Inventory Inventory Benefits > Monitor indicators over time Percentage of Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source 4.00 3.50 Pounds CO2e Per Boarding 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Bus Purchased Heavy Rail Light Rail Bus Operated by Metro 7
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How-To > Emissions = Activity Data x Emission > CO 2 emissions = kWh per year x CO 2 Factor per kWh > Activity Data can be affected by > Convert bus fleet to CNG, Establish technology changes, usage patterns conservation policy measures > Emission Factors are generally affected > Utility provider’s production portfolio by others Understanding & Managing your Activity Data is Key! > Coordination among departments > Standardizing collection > Institutionalizing the process > Provides insight beyond GHG emissions 8
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Activity Data Evaluate activity over time, not just GHG emissions Historic Waste Production 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Tons 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Solid Waste Solid Waste Trash Solid Waste Recycled 9
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Activity Data Understand activity data by facility Kilowatt Hours in Millions 10 15 20 0 5 Division 11 Division 66 Division 34 Division 6 Facility Electricity Use by Major Facilities in 2012 Division 4 Division 60 Division 9 Division 3 Division 5 Division 21 Division 1 Division 8 Division 10 Division 2 Division 7 Division 22 Division 18 Division 15 Division 30 Division 99 - Gateway 10 Division 20
Greenhouse Gas Displacement
Accounting for the Benefits APTA, 2011 12
Accounting for the Benefits Emissions displaced by Emissions generated by Transit Transit Mode Shift Avoided car trips Congestion Relief Metro 2012 Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions Land-Use Quantity of Emissions Displaced Multiplier Source (MT CO2e) Total Emissions Displaced from (491,291) Mode Shift Emissions from Metro Operations 484,983 Net Emissions from Metro (6,308) Operations 13
Other Transportation Agencies with Similar Efforts New York (MTA) Chicago (CTA) > Annual sustainability report since > Green Initiatives 2008 > Converted entire bus fleet ultra-low > LED Lighting and CFL upgrades for sulfur diesel in March 2003 bridges, tunnels, train signaling lights > Buses delivered since 2007 have clean-diesel engines and particulate > Renewable energy (rooftop PV panels filters that meet EPA emissions and fuel cells) standards > Use recycled water for car wash > CTA currently operates 250 hybrid > Innovative and artistic raised-grate buses, 15% total bus fleet street sculptures to prevent subway > In 2011, CTA received a $2.2 million flooding federal grant to purchase two all- electric buses 14
Climate Change Adaptation
Steps in assessing long-term climate impacts Identify Potential Assess Risk Impacts Likelihood Extreme Heat Consequence Flooding Drought Wildfires High Winds Sea Level Rise Identify Critical Assets Act Ridership Plan Connectivity Implement 16
Identify Potential Risks TBD: cheryl # Days >95 ° F per year 17
Identify Potential Risks TBD: cheryl # Days >95 ° F per year 18
Identify Potential Risks TBD: cheryl # Days >95 ° F per year 19
Identify critical assets 20
Assess risk 21 21
Assess risk 22 22
Assess risk Description of Risk/ Asset and Risk Likelihood Consequence Rating Comments Overheating of Expected to impact communications or inland above ground signalling system, locations. The loss of Possible (3) Moderate (3) High causing stoppage, service impacting an delay, or bus bridge entire line 23
Resources Guidance Documents APTA: Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transit APTA: Guidelines for Climate Action Planning APTA: Quantifying and Reporting Transit Sustainability Metrics TRB: Emissions Savings from Transit California Climate Change Adaptation Policy Guide ICLEI: US Community Protocol for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories Climate Science + Adaptation Cal-Adapt.org NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer California Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Energy & Transportation Transportation Reports Metro Climate Action and Adaptation Plan Adaptation Cost Benefit Analysis Overview FTA Flooded Bus Barns and Buckled Rails Adapting to Rising Tides: San Francisco US DOT Climate Adaptation Plan 24
Planning for Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaptation Cheryl Laskowski, Ph.D. Cheryl.Laskowski@aecom.com
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